President Trump’s administration has pursued a framework agreement to end the months-long U.S.-Iran conflict through extended ceasefires, reopening the Strait of Hormuz without restrictions or tolls, and deferring deeper nuclear limits, while maintaining a naval blockade until terms are finalized and signed. Recent developments include Trump rejecting initial drafts and returning tougher conditions on May 30, 2026, insisting on destruction or transfer of highly enriched uranium, limits to a single operational nuclear facility, and rejection of Iranian demands for asset releases or reparations. Tentative understandings reached in late May centered on a 60-day ceasefire extension and Hormuz access in exchange for sanctions relief or asset unfreezing, yet Trump publicly stated negotiators should not rush and that he remained unsatisfied. These dynamics, alongside ongoing indirect talks involving mediators, shape trader assessments of which specific Iranian requests the U.S. side will accept by the May 31 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTrump insists Iran must remove enriched uranium and reopen Strait of Hormuz
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 0%2%
Trump stated that Iran must agree to never have a nuclear weapon, immediately open the Strait of Hormuz without tolls, and complete removal of highly enriched uranium, with the US coordinating destruction. This uncompromising stance indicated no acceptance of continued enrichment, driving the market probability to zero.
Trump pledges no compromise on Iranian uranium in talks with Netanyahu
Trump pledged to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that there will be no compromise on Iranian uranium enrichment, underscoring a hardline US stance against any acceptance of continued enrichment by Iran, reinforcing market skepticism.
Trump ends Iran meeting without announcing final determination on uranium deal
Trump ended a meeting without announcing a final decision on the Iran deal, reaffirming that Iran's enriched uranium will be unearthed and destroyed under US and IAEA supervision, signaling no US acceptance of continued enrichment.
Trump asserts Iran agreed to give up its enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 2%1%
Trump again claimed that Iran had agreed to give up its stockpile, but no formal treaty was signed. The market remained low, staying at 2 % on 2026‑05‑29, confirming a consensus that no definitive agreement existed.
Trump says Iran must never have a nuclear bomb and US will destroy its uranium
In his final pre‑deadline post Trump outlined that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon and that the US would destroy any remaining stockpile, cementing the market’s view that the US will not accept any ongoing enrichment.
Trump holds meeting to make 'final determination' on Iran deal including uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%1%
President Trump held a White House meeting to decide on moving forward with a deal involving Iran’s nuclear program and uranium stockpile. He reiterated demands that Iran must turn over enriched uranium for destruction, but no definitive agreement to accept continued enrichment was announced, maintaining market skepticism.
US and Iran reach tentative agreement but Trump has not signed off
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%2%
Reports indicated a tentative agreement between the US and Iran including Iran’s commitment to turn over highly enriched uranium and not pursue nuclear weapons, but Trump had not yet approved the deal, leaving key issues unresolved.
Tentative US-Iran agreement includes Iran disposing of enriched uranium, but Trump has not signed
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 1%5%
Reports indicated a tentative agreement where Iran would commit to disposing of its enriched uranium, but Trump had not yet signed off, and details remained unresolved, keeping market uncertainty high and probability low for US acceptance of continued enrichment.
U.S. and Iran reach tentative agreement, uranium clause still pending
CNN reported a tentative U.S.–Iran agreement that still left the uranium‑disposal clause unresolved, confirming market participants that no definitive acceptance of continued enrichment existed.
Trump demands Iran transfer or allow supervised destruction of enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%4%
Trump publicly demanded that Iran hand over its enriched uranium to the US for destruction or allow it to be destroyed under international supervision, reinforcing the US position against any continued enrichment by Iran. This hardened stance contributed to market collapse in the probability of US acceptance of enrichment.
Trump says Iran's enriched uranium will be turned over to U.S. or destroyed
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 6%9%
Trump stated that Iran's enriched uranium would be handed over to the U.S. for destruction or destroyed at an agreed location, indicating U.S. insistence on removal or neutralization of the uranium stockpile.
Trump demands Iran hand over enriched uranium for destruction
Trump reiterated that Iran should hand over its enriched uranium for destruction, reaffirming the US position of no continued enrichment and preventing any price rebound.
Trump: Iran must hand over enriched uranium for destruction or supervised disposal
Trump reiterated that Iran should hand over its enriched uranium for destruction or allow it to be destroyed under supervision, emphasizing that the U.S. would not settle for a continuation of enrichment. No further price movement occurred, cementing the market’s near‑zero outlook.
Trump says Iran must hand over enriched uranium for destruction or supervised disposal
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%2%
Trump reiterated that Iran must hand over or allow supervised destruction of its enriched uranium, keeping the issue front‑and‑center and stabilising the price at 1 % on 29 May.
Iran denies Trump’s claim on enriched uranium deal amid rising tensions
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 2%7%
Iran officially denied any agreement with the US on enriched uranium transfer, calling Trump’s claims false. This denial reinforced market skepticism and pushed acceptance probability to near zero.
Trump signals openness to IAEA-supervised destruction of uranium in Iran
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%1%
Trump indicated willingness to accept IAEA-supervised destruction of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile in Iran or another location, but insisted on strict dismantlement standards and no residual enrichment capacity, reflecting ongoing tough US demands.
Trump pledges no compromise on Iranian uranium in talks with Netanyahu
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%2%
Trump pledged to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that there would be no compromise on Iranian uranium enrichment, signaling a firm US stance against acceptance of continued enrichment. This hardened position contributed to the market's near-zero pricing for US agreement to enrichment.
Iran’s Supreme Leader orders enriched uranium stay in country
Khamenei’s directive that enriched uranium not leave Iran, reported by Reuters, reinforced the perception that the U.S. would not obtain the material, keeping the price at 1 %.
Netanyahu: Trump agreed any deal with Iran must include taking Iran’s enriched uranium
Netanyahu tweeted that Trump agreed any deal must include removal of Iran’s enriched uranium, underscoring U.S. demand for a complete halt to enrichment. The market stayed at the 1 % level, confirming that traders now viewed the chance of a US‑acceptance of continued enrichment as essentially gone.
Netanyahu: Trump agreed any US‑Iran deal must eliminate enrichment
Netanyahu posted that Trump agreed any US‑Iran deal must include dismantling Iran’s enrichment program, reinforcing the view that the US would not permit continued enrichment and keeping the market at 0 %.
Iran denies any deal on enriched uranium transfer with US
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%6%
Iran officially denied Trump's claims of an enriched uranium deal, stating no agreement exists and expressing distrust of the US. This rejection reinforced market skepticism about US acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment.
US close to deal with Iran that includes uranium surrender
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 4%6%
AP‑reported that the United States was close to a deal in which Iran would give up its highly enriched uranium stockpile. The market jumped from 10 % on 2026‑05‑24 to 4 % on 2026‑05‑25 (a pull‑back after the initial optimism).
Trump pledges no compromise on Iranian uranium in talks with Netanyahu
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 7%1%
Trump pledged to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that there would be no compromise on Iranian uranium enrichment, signaling a hardline US stance and reducing expectations for US acceptance of continued enrichment by Iran.
US and Iran agree in principle to deal including Iran disposing enriched uranium
The US and Iran agreed in principle to a deal that would see Iran dispose of its highly enriched uranium and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, though the deal was not yet signed and details were still being negotiated. This raised market optimism temporarily but did not constitute definitive US acceptance of continued enrichment.
Trump and Netanyahu agree any Iran deal must include removal of enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 9%7%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Trump agreed any final agreement with Iran must include dismantling Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites and removing enriched uranium, reinforcing the US hardline position and limiting acceptance of continued enrichment.
U.S. and Iran agree in principle to deal including disposal of enriched uranium
A U.S. official confirmed that the U.S. and Iran agreed in principle to a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and include Iran's commitment to dispose of its highly enriched uranium, though the deal was not yet signed.
Trump says agreement details still under discussion, no firm uranium clause yet
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%2%
Trump posted that final details of the deal were still under discussion, with no firm commitment on enriched uranium disclosed. This uncertainty caused the price to fall back to 4 % on 27 May.
Iran denies agreeing to hand over enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 4%6%
A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran had not agreed to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpile and that the nuclear issue was not part of the preliminary agreement with the US, contradicting US claims and maintaining Iran’s position.
Netanyahu says Trump agreed any Iran deal must include taking Iran’s enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 14%8%
Netanyahu posted that Trump agreed any Iran deal must include the removal of Iran’s enriched uranium. The claim coincided with a market spike to 14 % on 24 May, the highest level in the period.
Trump says U.S. close to deal that would force Iran to surrender uranium
Trump told reporters the United States was close to a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and compel Iran to surrender its uranium; the “in principle” language failed to raise odds, confirming the market’s near‑zero outlook.
Trump announces near-final deal including Iran’s commitment to dispose enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%1%
President Trump announced a memorandum of understanding close to finalization, including Iran’s commitment to dispose of its enriched uranium and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the deal was not signed, and Iran denied any agreement on uranium transfer, maintaining the dispute unresolved.
US Secretary of State Rubio reports significant but not final progress on Iran nuclear talks
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%6%
On May 24, Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that significant progress had been made in negotiations with Iran, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a process on Iran’s nuclear program, but no final agreement was reached. This maintained low market confidence in a uranium enrichment agreement by the deadline.
Trump announces near-final deal with Iran excluding uranium enrichment
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%10%
On May 23, President Trump announced that a deal with Iran was largely negotiated, but details on uranium stockpile disposal were deferred, with Iran not publicly agreeing to give up enriched uranium. This ambiguity and lack of definitive US acceptance of enrichment led to a very low market price for enrichment agreement.
Trump announces 'largely negotiated' deal including Strait of Hormuz reopening, no uranium enrichment acceptance
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%3%
Trump announced a memorandum of understanding nearing finalization focusing on the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief, but Iran denied any agreement on uranium stockpile, confirming no US acceptance of enrichment.
U.S. and Iran close to signing peace deal with uranium disposal commitment
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 5%43%
The U.S. and Iran were nearing a broader peace agreement, with Iran agreeing in principle to dispose of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, a key nuclear concession.
Iran agrees in principle to give up enriched uranium in Trump-announced deal
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 15%10%
U.S. officials announced that Iran agreed in principle to surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium as part of a U.S.-Iran framework announced by Trump, marking a significant concession though details remained unresolved.
US officials say Iran agreed in principle to give up enriched uranium stockpile
US officials reported that Iran had agreed in principle to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of a broader deal, but details on the mechanism and timeline remained unresolved. This tentative agreement briefly raised market hopes but lacked definitive US acceptance of continued enrichment.
Reports say Iran agrees to give up 'nuclear dust' stockpile in deal with Trump
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 10%3%
Reports emerged that Iran had agreed to relinquish its highly enriched uranium stockpile as part of a deal with the US, suggesting progress in negotiations. However, this was not publicly confirmed by Iran, creating uncertainty and limited market impact.
Reports say Iran agreed in principle to surrender enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%1%
US officials reported Iran agreed in principle to dispose of its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a tentative deal, though details and formal agreement were pending. This development raised some market optimism but was tempered by Iran’s denials and lack of formal confirmation.
Report claims Iran tentatively agrees to surrender enriched uranium amid deal talks
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 9%6%
A report surfaced that Iran tentatively agreed to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a nuclear deal, briefly raising market hopes. However, no official confirmation from Iran or the US was made, keeping uncertainty high.
U.S. official says Iran agrees in principle to dispose of highly‑enriched uranium
A senior U.S. official said Iran had agreed in principle to dispose of highly‑enriched uranium, but the lack of a signed treaty kept the market at the lowest level.
Reports of Iran tentatively agreeing to surrender enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 9%4%
Reports emerged that Iran tentatively agreed to relinquish its enriched uranium stockpile as part of a nuclear deal, briefly raising market optimism. However, no public confirmation from Iran and ongoing skepticism limited impact.
Netanyahu demands Iran remove uranium, complicating US-Iran nuclear talks
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 5%1%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu demanded Iran remove its uranium stockpiles and dismantle nuclear sites, hardening regional positions and complicating US-Iran negotiations. This reduced market optimism for a US agreement to Iran’s uranium enrichment.
Speculation surfaces that U.S. may allow limited Iranian enrichment under draft deal
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 15%10%
A brief upswing in the market to 15 % occurred after reports that the United States was considering a limited “12‑year moratorium” on enrichment in a draft deal. The report was speculative, and the probability fell back to 4 % the next day.
US and Iran near deal including Iran’s commitment to give up enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 15%5%
Reports indicated that the US and Iran were close to a broader peace agreement including Iran’s apparent commitment to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile, though details and timelines remained unclear and unconfirmed by Iran.
Trump says Iran war will end soon, no agreement on enrichment
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 0%1%
Trump said the war would end soon and Iran would never obtain a nuclear weapon, but gave no concrete agreement on enrichment, confirming the market’s belief that the US would not accept continued enrichment; price fell to 0 % by June 1.
U.S.–Iran draft MOU appears to include Iran’s disposal of highly enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 6%2%
Multiple outlets reported that the pending U.S.–Iran MOU included a clause for Iran to give up its highly enriched uranium, though no formal signing had occurred. The news lifted sentiment, raising the price to 6 % on 24 May.
Iran denies Trump's claim on enriched uranium deal amid rising tensions
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%1%
Iran officially denied Trump's claims of an agreement on enriched uranium transfer, stating no such deal exists. This public contradiction reinforced market doubts about any US acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer, citing distrust of US
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%2%
Iran’s Foreign Minister publicly rejected any transfer of enriched uranium to the US, citing distrust. This rejection reinforced market skepticism about any US acceptance of continued uranium enrichment by Iran.
Trump vows to seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 10%4%
Trump declared the US would seize or destroy Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile, emphasizing that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon. This hardline stance underscored the US refusal to accept continued enrichment or uranium retention by Iran.
Trump reiterates US rejection of Iran’s uranium enrichment in deadlocked talks
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%1%
Following deadlocked peace talks, Trump reiterated the US refusal to accept Iran’s uranium enrichment, emphasizing the administration’s demand to eliminate Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. This reinforced the market’s low probability of US acceptance of enrichment by May 31.
Trump states US will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%2%
Trump publicly stated the US will take drastic measures to prevent Iran from possessing enriched uranium, emphasizing no acceptance of Iran's enrichment rights. This hardened rhetoric contributed to the market's very low probability of US acceptance of enrichment.
Trump threatens to seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%6%
Trump declared the US would seize or destroy Iran’s uranium stockpile to prevent nuclear weapons development, signaling a hardline stance and reducing likelihood of US acceptance of Iran's enrichment.
Trump says US will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 10%4%
Trump announced the United States would “seize or destroy” Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. The market slipped again, moving from 6 % on 2026‑05‑22 to 10 % on 2026‑05‑24 as investors reassessed feasibility.
Trump pledges no compromise on Iranian uranium in talks with Netanyahu
Trump pledged to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that there would be no compromise on Iranian uranium enrichment, signaling a hardline US position. This stance likely reduced market confidence in a US agreement to accept continued uranium enrichment by Iran by the May 31 deadline.
Trump says U.S. will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%1%
Trump declared the United States would seize or destroy Iran’s highly enriched uranium, a position that categorically rejects any agreement to let Iran continue enrichment. The price plunged from 2 % to 1 % on May 23, the lowest level in the window.
Trump declares US will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%10%
President Trump announced that the US would seize or destroy Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, signaling a hardline stance and rejecting any acceptance of continued enrichment. This announcement contributed to a sharp drop in market prices for uranium enrichment acceptance.
Iran denies agreement to hand over enriched uranium
Iran publicly denied any agreement to hand over enriched uranium, reinforcing market pessimism and keeping the price near the bottom.
Trump vows U.S. will recover Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 12%1%
Trump vowed that the U.S. would eventually recover Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium despite Iran's refusal to hand it over, reinforcing U.S. demands and increasing pressure on Iran.
Trump states US will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%2%
President Trump declared the US would seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile to prevent nuclear weapon development, emphasizing no agreement had been reached. This statement underscored the US hardline position and contributed to market skepticism about any acceptance of Iran’s enrichment.
Trump announces peace deal with Iran is 'largely negotiated'
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
Trump confirmed the U.S.-Iran peace deal was 'largely negotiated' with final details to be announced, signaling progress toward a comprehensive agreement.
Netanyahu says any US‑Iran deal must include uranium removal
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 14%11%
Netanyahu said any US‑Iran deal must include removal of Iran’s enriched uranium; Trump echoed the view. The price rose from 3 % on 2026‑05‑19 to 14 % on 2026‑05‑21.
Trump announces US desire to remove and destroy Iranian uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%2%
Trump declared the US intention to seize or destroy Iran's enriched uranium, rejecting Iran's right to retain it. This firm position indicated no US acceptance of continued enrichment, further lowering market expectations.
Trump vows US will recover Iran's highly enriched uranium despite Iranian refusal
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 15%9%
Trump reiterated that the US will obtain Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, despite Iran's Supreme Leader ordering it to remain in the country, maintaining a firm US stance against Iran's enrichment rights.
Trump says U.S. will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%1%
Trump announced the United States would seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, a hard‑line stance that further eroded market belief in a negotiated continuation of enrichment.
Khamenei refuses to move Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile amid fragile peace negotiations
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%2%
Khamenei ordered that Iran’s near‑weapons‑grade uranium stockpile must remain inside Iran, rejecting U.S. demands for removal. The market fell sharply from 4 % to 2 % the next day, reflecting the perception that the U.S. would not obtain a concession to accept continued enrichment.
Trump: US will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%1%
Trump announced the US would seize or destroy Iran’s stockpile of highly‑enriched uranium, a hard‑line stance that eliminated remaining optimism and drove the price to 1 % the next day.
Trump vows to seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%6%
President Trump declared the US would seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile to prevent nuclear weapon development, signaling no acceptance of Iran’s enrichment rights and pushing market probability sharply down.
Trump vows US will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%10%
Trump declared the US would seize or destroy Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, emphasizing a hardline stance against Iran's nuclear program and rejecting any acceptance of continued enrichment. This statement reinforced the US demand for uranium removal, pushing market probabilities for acceptance of enrichment further down.
Trump declares US will seize or destroy Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%2%
President Trump announced the US intention to seize or destroy Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, emphasizing a zero-tolerance policy on Iranian enrichment and reducing market expectations for US acceptance of continued enrichment.
Trump pledges no compromise on Iranian uranium in talks with Netanyahu
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 5%1%
During a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Trump pledged no compromise on Iranian uranium, reaffirming the U.S. hard‑line position. This reinforced market pessimism and kept the "Enrichment of Uranium" probability near its low‑single‑digit range (5 % on 2026‑05‑22).
Trump pauses planned attack on Iran, signals talks ongoing but uranium enrichment off table
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 9%3%
Trump announced postponement of an attack after peace proposals but stated uranium enrichment was not under discussion yet, indicating no US acceptance of enrichment and keeping market low.
Iran offers to transfer enriched uranium to Russia in proposed peace deal
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 9%3%
Iran proposed transferring its enriched uranium to Russia as part of a peace deal, indicating a willingness to negotiate uranium stockpile management but not directly to the US. This complicated US-Iran talks and did not constitute US acceptance of enrichment.
Trump pauses attack on Iran after Tehran sends peace proposal
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 12%36%
Following Iran's peace proposal, Trump announced a pause to his planned attack on Iran, signaling a 'very good chance' of reaching a nuclear deal, boosting market optimism for a resolution.
Trump pauses planned attack on Iran, sees 'very good chance' of nuclear deal limiting enrichment
Trump announced a pause in military action after receiving a peace proposal from Iran, expressing optimism about a deal limiting Iran's nuclear program but not agreeing to continued enrichment, keeping market expectations low.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer, citing distrust of US
Iran's Foreign Minister publicly stated that transferring enriched uranium is not on the agenda and expressed distrust towards the US. This official rejection further diminished the likelihood of a US agreement to accept continued uranium enrichment by Iran, reinforcing the market's low pricing for this outcome.
US imposes new sanctions targeting Iranian nuclear research
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 4%5%
The US imposed sanctions on Iranian nuclear research and entities supporting ballistic missile programs, signaling a hardening stance that likely reduced market confidence in a deal allowing enrichment.
Trump hints at winding down military efforts in Middle East
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%1%
President Trump indicated nearing completion of military objectives in the Middle East but maintained pressure on Iran, with no indication of acceptance of uranium enrichment, keeping market expectations for agreement very low.
Trump sends nuclear proposal demanding Iranian enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%1%
Trump sent a formal nuclear proposal to Iran demanding the surrender of enriched uranium; the lack of an Iranian response drove the market down to single‑digit odds.
Trump accepts 20-year uranium enrichment moratorium if Iran gives 'real' guarantee
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 9%5%
Trump announced he would accept a 20-year suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment in exchange for a 'real' guarantee, marking a significant shift from his previous demand for permanent zero enrichment. This positive development caused a small price increase for the Enrichment of Uranium market.
Trump states 20-year moratorium on Iran's nuclear program would suffice
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%2%
On May 15, President Trump said a 20-year moratorium on Iran's nuclear program would be enough to strike a deal, rejecting Iran's latest proposal and emphasizing no acceptance of any nuclear material. This statement underscored the US's firm stance against continued enrichment, keeping market prices low.
Trump pledges no compromise on Iranian uranium in talks with Netanyahu
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%2%
Trump pledged to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that there would be no compromise on Iranian uranium enrichment, signaling a hardline US stance. This reduced market confidence in any US acceptance of Iran’s uranium enrichment.
Trump accepts 20-year suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment with real guarantee
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 4%1%
Trump shifted from demanding a permanent halt to uranium enrichment to accepting a 20-year suspension if Iran provides a "real" guarantee, indicating some flexibility but not acceptance of continued enrichment.
US seizes Iranian cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz, escalating conflict
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%2%
The US forcibly seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to pass the naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, marking a ceasefire violation and escalating tensions, making a deal on uranium enrichment less likely.
Trump hints at winding down military operations while lifting limited sanctions on Iranian oil
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%1%
Trump announced a partial sanction lift on Iranian oil shipments, temporarily easing oil‑price pressure, but his continued military posture kept expectations for any enrichment deal low, pushing the enrichment price to its lowest point.
Trump announces possible wind‑down of military operations
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 1%5%
Trump posted on social media that the U.S. was considering winding down its military campaign, but also noted that the blockade would stay until Tehran agrees to U.S. terms. The mixed signal caused the Enrichment of Uranium price to fall to its lowest level of 1% on May 15.
Iranian official reiterates refusal to hand over enriched uranium to U.S.
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%2%
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh reaffirmed that Iran will not ship enriched uranium to the U.S., calling it a nonstarter, confirming no U.S. agreement to accept continued uranium enrichment under U.S. terms.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer, citing distrust of U.S.
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%2%
Iran’s foreign minister publicly rejected any transfer of enriched uranium to the United States, stating a lack of trust. This direct denial caused the market to tumble from 6 % to 4 % on May 16, tightening expectations that the U.S. would not receive a continued enrichment concession.
Trump’s address emphasizes continued military pressure, no sign of a uranium deal
In a televised address, Trump reiterated that the United States would keep up military pressure on Iran, offering no indication of a forthcoming agreement on enrichment, cementing the market’s low probability outlook.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz again amid US blockade and stalled talks
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%1%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fully closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and signaling no progress in negotiations, further reducing chances of US acceptance of uranium enrichment.
Iran rejects U.S. demand to hand over enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%2%
Iran rejected U.S. demand for the hand‑over of its enriched uranium, reinforcing Tehran’s position. The price fell further from 5 % on 2026‑05‑13 to 3 % on 2026‑05‑14.
Trump warns Iran of harsh consequences if nuclear program rebuilt
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%1%
President Trump warned Iran that any attempt to rebuild its nuclear program would be met with harsh military response, reinforcing US refusal to accept uranium enrichment continuation and depressing market prices.
Trump insists no deal unless Iran abandons nuclear weapons ambitions
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%1%
President Trump emphasized that any agreement must ensure Iran will not have nuclear weapons, rejecting Iran's enrichment demands and contributing to the market's low probability of US acceptance of uranium enrichment.
Iranian reformists detained amid crackdown during nuclear talks
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%2%
Iranian security forces arrested reformist figures amid a crackdown on dissent, signaling internal political instability and hardening of Iran's negotiating position, diminishing prospects for US acceptance of uranium enrichment continuation.
Iran rejects UN atomic agency resolution, threatens reprisals including uranium enrichment
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%1%
Iran’s foreign ministry rejected a UN atomic watchdog resolution demanding full cooperation and threatened retaliatory actions, including possible further uranium enrichment. This hardened Iran’s stance and indicated no willingness to limit enrichment, reducing chances of U.S. acceptance of continued enrichment.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan, cites Iran’s maximalist demands
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%3%
Trump halted diplomatic envoys, stating Iran’s demands—including enrichment—were unacceptable, further eroding hopes for a deal and pushing the market to its lowest level.
Iran warns of 90 % uranium enrichment if US attacks
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%4%
A hard‑line Iranian MP warned Tehran could enrich uranium to 90 % if attacked, raising concerns about future escalation. The market dipped from 7 % on 2026‑05‑11 to 3 % on 2026‑05‑13.
Trump 100 % confident Iran will stop enrichment and hand over stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%1%
Trump asserted 100 % confidence that Iran would stop enrichment and hand over its stockpile, a claim that was quickly challenged by Iranian officials, leading to renewed market skepticism.
Trump '100 Percent' Confident Iran Will Stop Uranium Enrichment
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 1%2%
Trump stated in an interview that he was fully confident Iran would stop uranium enrichment and hand over its stockpile, but Iran did not confirm this claim. His comments reflected ongoing US pressure but did not indicate any definitive agreement, maintaining market uncertainty.
Iran rejects IAEA demand for precise information on near‑weapons‑grade uranium
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%1%
Iran’s foreign ministry called the IAEA resolution “anti‑Iranian,” refusing cooperation and signaling no willingness to limit enrichment, further depressing the enrichment‑outcome price.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer, citing distrust of US
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%3%
Iran’s foreign minister publicly rejected any transfer of enriched uranium, pushing the market down to a low 2 % that night.
Iran rejects IAEA resolution demanding detailed uranium stockpile information
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%1%
Iran’s foreign ministry called the IAEA demand “anti‑Iranian,” signaling continued defiance on enrichment and further dimming prospects of a U.S.‑Iran agreement.
Trump expresses 100% confidence Iran will stop uranium enrichment
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 6%3%
Trump stated he was fully confident Iran would cease uranium enrichment and hand over its stockpile, but Iranian officials denied any such agreement, maintaining their right to enrich uranium. This discrepancy increased uncertainty and skepticism in the market about a definitive US acceptance of continued enrichment.
Iranian official reiterates refusal to ship enriched uranium to U.S.
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%3%
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister reaffirmed that Iran will not hand over enriched uranium to the U.S., calling it a non-starter, signaling continued impasse on uranium enrichment acceptance by the U.S.
Iran warns it could enrich uranium up to 90% if US attacks again
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%4%
An Iranian lawmaker stated that Iran might increase uranium enrichment to weapons-grade levels if the US launched another attack, signaling a hardening stance and reducing likelihood of US acceptance of enrichment.
Iranian foreign minister signals insistence on uranium enrichment in talks
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%1%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated Iran would stick to its position that it must be able to enrich uranium, a major point of contention with Trump, indicating no U.S. acceptance of limiting or ending enrichment.
Trump says Iran agreed to hand over enriched uranium as deal nears
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 6%4%
In an interview Trump said Iran had “agreed to everything” and would hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, but offered no concrete timetable. The market slipped from 10 % to 6 % as analysts viewed the claim as unsubstantiated and potentially a bargaining tactic.
Rubio urges caution as US‑Iran talks remain incomplete
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 5%3%
Senator and acting Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that “significant progress… but not final,” down‑playing Trump’s optimism. The market slipped from 8 % on 2026‑05‑10 to 5 % on 2026‑05‑11.
Trump 100 % confident Iran will stop uranium enrichment and hand over stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 9%7%
Trump told a radio interview he was “100 % confident” Iran would stop enrichment and hand over the material. The upbeat claim briefly lifted market optimism, causing the price to rise to 9 % on 21 May after a low of 2 % on 16 May.
Trump uses Iran war address to urge patience but offers few new details
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 6%2%
President Trump urged patience in his address but did not provide new details on resolving nuclear issues, maintaining a hardline stance against Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which kept market confidence in a deal low.
Iran denies Trump’s claim on enriched uranium deal amid rising tensions
Iran officially denied any agreement with the US on enriched uranium transfer, calling Trump’s claims false. This denial reinforced market skepticism and contributed to the low probability of a US agreement on uranium enrichment.
Trump’s televised address warns of “steep” consequences for Iran’s nuclear program
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 5%1%
During a national address, Trump warned of severe military action if Iran continues enrichment, reinforcing market belief that the U.S. will not accept continued enrichment.
Trump rejects Iran proposal as uranium demands remain unmet
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%4%
Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran’s latest proposal was “totally unacceptable,” emphasizing that Tehran had not agreed to surrender its enriched uranium, causing a sharp price drop.
Iran and U.S. agree to hold nuclear talks in Oman amid high tensions
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 8%3%
Iran and the U.S. agreed to hold nuclear talks in Oman, signaling a potential diplomatic opening, but with unresolved issues including uranium enrichment, the market remained skeptical about U.S. acceptance of continued enrichment.
Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal as nuclear talks stall
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%1%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal as 'totally unacceptable,' citing Iran’s failure to agree to dismantle nuclear infrastructure and surrender enriched uranium. This hardened stance signaled a diplomatic stalemate and reduced market optimism for a uranium enrichment agreement.
Trump says US negotiators will travel to Pakistan for talks
Oil Sanction Relief drops to 17%12%
Trump announced that US negotiators would go to Pakistan for a second round of talks, but the ceasefire was set to expire soon, keeping market expectations low for any immediate enrichment concession.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 4%2%
US forces disabled Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and signaling no US concession on Iran's nuclear program, further reducing market expectations for uranium enrichment agreement.
Trump reiterates “no enrichment” demand in interview with Netanyahu
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 6%1%
In a joint interview with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump emphasized that any U.S. deal must exclude Iran’s ability to enrich uranium, reinforcing the maximalist stance and further depressing the Enrichment of Uranium price to 6%.
Trump threatens to bomb Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed
Trump warned of massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, reinforcing a hard‑line posture that made a nuclear‑enrichment compromise seem unlikely.
Iranian foreign minister signals insistence on uranium enrichment in talks
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 6%2%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi indicated that Iran would stick to its position that it must be able to enrich uranium, a major point of contention with the U.S. This reaffirmed Iran’s maximalist stance and contributed to the market’s decline in the likelihood of U.S. acceptance of continued enrichment.
Trump warns US will target anyone approaching Iran's enriched uranium
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%2%
Trump declared that the US military is surveilling Iran's nuclear material and will "blow up" anyone who tries to access it, signaling a zero-tolerance policy on Iran's uranium enrichment and reinforcing the US hardline stance.
Iran rejects UN atomic agency resolution, threatens reprisals
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%1%
Iran condemned a UN atomic watchdog resolution demanding cooperation and access to nuclear sites, threatening retaliatory actions including possible further uranium enrichment, signaling defiance and no U.S. agreement to enrichment continuation.
Trump cancels envoys’ Pakistan trip again, insists on phone talks with Iran
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%3%
Trump said the US would not send envoys to Pakistan for talks with Iran, preferring phone calls instead, reflecting stalled negotiations and continued US refusal to accept uranium enrichment by Iran.
Iran signals insistence on uranium enrichment rights amid talks
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 5%4%
Iranian officials reiterated that uranium enrichment is a non-negotiable right, rejecting US demands to halt enrichment, which stalled progress and lowered market expectations for US acceptance of enrichment.
Satellite images show roofs being built over damaged Iranian nuclear sites
New satellite photos revealed construction at Natanz and Isfahan, suggesting Iran might be trying to conceal remaining enriched material, which heightened uncertainty about any concession on enrichment.
Iranian official confirms no enriched uranium will be shipped to US
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%2%
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh reaffirmed Iran's refusal to hand over enriched uranium to the US, calling it a nonstarter, reinforcing the impasse on uranium enrichment acceptance and depressing market confidence.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan; Iran sends improved proposal
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 13%9%
President Trump canceled the planned envoy trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, citing lack of progress, but said Iran sent a 'much better' proposal shortly after. Despite this, no details emerged on uranium enrichment concessions, and Iran maintained its position on enrichment rights. The market showed a brief uptick in optimism but remained low on U.S. acceptance of enrichment.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz again, fires on ships amid US blockade
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 5%3%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and fired on ships attempting passage, escalating tensions and undermining prospects for a deal including uranium enrichment acceptance by the US, pushing market prices lower.
US and Iran offer mixed messages on deal to end war
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 14%1%
Trump officials reportedly want a moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment as part of a peace deal framework, while Iran continues to insist on its right to enrich. This mixed messaging created uncertainty in the market.
Iran officials reveal US demands for uranium stockpile surrender and nuclear facility closures
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
Iranian officials disclosed that US negotiators insist Iran agree to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile, close nuclear facilities, and suspend enrichment for 20 years, highlighting key obstacles in talks. This firm US stance contributed to market skepticism about enrichment acceptance.
Trump says U.S. talks with Iran are continuing despite blockade
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%8%
Trump publicly affirmed that negotiations were ongoing, but his insistence on maximalist demands kept market participants skeptical, pushing the enrichment‑of‑uranium price lower.
US and Iran formulate 14-point memo including nuclear moratorium
Negotiations via Pakistani mediators produced a memo calling on Iran to commit to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, signaling US insistence on zero enrichment and limiting chances of acceptance of continued enrichment.
Trump claims US will secure enriched uranium from Iran
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 13%11%
Trump announced that the United States will “secure enriched uranium from Iran”, implying U.S. acceptance of Iran’s stockpile. The price of the enrichment market jumped from 2 % on 2026‑05‑05 to 13 % on 2026‑05‑07, the largest swing in the period.
Trump orders additional U.S. warships to the region
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 5%7%
Trump announced the deployment of extra aircraft carriers and destroyers to the Middle East, reinforcing the blockade and signaling a hardening of U.S. posture. The escalation pushed the Enrichment of Uranium price sharply down from 12% to 5% and briefly spiked the Oil Sanction Relief price to 42%.
Trump says United States will get enriched uranium from Iran
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 8%6%
Trump said the United States would obtain enriched uranium from Iran, a definitive claim that briefly boosted market optimism.
Trump says US will get uranium from Iran amid ongoing war talks
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 6%2%
Trump expressed confidence that the US would obtain enriched uranium from Iran as part of efforts to end the Gulf war, reinforcing his administration’s demand for uranium surrender despite ongoing conflict.
Trump asserts U.S. will obtain enriched uranium from Iran
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
President Trump publicly stated that the United States would get enriched uranium from Iran amid ongoing efforts to end the Gulf war, signaling a firm U.S. stance on Iran's nuclear material.
Trump announces US will retrieve enriched uranium from Iran
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 15%13%
President Trump publicly stated that the United States would obtain Iran's enriched uranium, emphasizing that the US does not want or need it but will not allow Iran to keep it. This reinforced the US position against Iran's continued enrichment and pressured negotiations.
Trump warns Iran of intensified bombing if no peace deal reached
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 4%14%
President Trump warned on May 6 that Iran would be bombed at a much higher level if it did not agree to a peace deal, emphasizing the US demand for a moratorium on nuclear enrichment. This hardened stance contributed to a further decline in market confidence for enrichment agreement.
Trump claims U.S. will secure enriched uranium from Iran
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 10%5%
Trump announced the United States would "secure" enriched uranium from Iran, implying a willingness to accept Iran’s stockpile and thereby revive hopes of a deal. The price rebounded from 5 % to 10 % on May 7 as traders reassessed the likelihood of US acceptance of continued enrichment.
Trump reiterates no uranium enrichment allowed, threatens military action
Enrichment of Uranium surges to 18%15%
Trump publicly stated there would be no uranium enrichment and threatened to resume bombing if Iran did not accept the deal, reinforcing US red lines and reducing market optimism.
Trump announces 'Project Freedom' to guide ships through Strait of Hormuz
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz rises to 8%3%
President Trump launched a naval initiative to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz amid Iran's blockade, signaling continued US pressure on Iran but no concessions on nuclear enrichment, contributing to market uncertainty and volatility.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships after US blockade
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz dips to 2%4%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced the complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to fire on vessels, underscoring the escalation and reducing optimism for any nuclear‑enrichment deal.
Satellite photos show activity at Iran nuclear sites, raising concerns
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 8%6%
Satellite images revealed Iran assessing damage at nuclear sites bombed last year, suggesting possible salvage of enriched uranium stocks. This raised concerns about Iran's nuclear capabilities and reduced market confidence in U.S. acceptance of uranium enrichment.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships after U.S. blockade
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 17%12%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard shut the strait and attacked vessels, escalating the conflict and reinforcing market belief that no nuclear concession will be reached.
Pakistan mediators push for a new U.S.–Iran deal after talks in Islamabad
Unfreeze Iranian Assets jumps to 39%6%
Pakistan’s foreign minister announced renewed diplomatic efforts, briefly raising hopes for a compromise on enrichment but ultimately failing to change market sentiment.
Iranian official says U.S. maximalist demands stall face-to-face talks
Enrichment of Uranium rises to 10%4%
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh stated that Iran is not ready for new face-to-face talks due to U.S. maximalist demands, including refusal to hand over enriched uranium, signaling stalled negotiations and low likelihood of U.S. acceptance of enrichment.
Trump threatens to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if enrichment continues
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 15%11%
Trump’s escalation to threaten attacks on Iranian infrastructure heightened the perception that the U.S. will not concede on enrichment, causing a brief rebound in market prices before the overall downtrend continued.
Trump warns Iran of severe consequences if nuclear program rebuilt
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 18%11%
President Trump warned Iran that any attempt to rebuild its nuclear program would face harsh military strikes, reinforcing US refusal to accept uranium enrichment and contributing to market decline in agreement probability.
Trump dismisses Iran's enriched uranium stockpile as worthless but demands its return
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 3%45%
President Trump publicly stated that Iran's enriched uranium stockpile is of little value but insisted the US must take possession of it, highlighting a contradictory stance that underscored US demands to control Iran's nuclear materials. This reinforced the US position against allowing Iran to continue enrichment, negatively impacting market expectations for agreement on enrichment.
Trump calls Iran’s enriched uranium worthless, then demands it back
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 5%3%
Trump dismissed Iran’s enriched uranium as “worthless” yet demanded it be returned, causing a brief rise to 5 % that quickly fell as the contradictory stance sowed doubt.
Trump reiterates demand for Iran's enriched uranium amid failed talks
Trump's repeated public demands for Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile, despite Iran's refusal and ongoing failed negotiations, underscored the impasse. This hardened US stance contributed to the market's low probability of US acceptance of continued uranium enrichment by Iran.
Pakistan’s foreign minister pledges to bridge U.S.–Iran differences
Oil Sanction Relief dips to 21%4%
Pakistan announced it would host a second round of talks, briefly raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough and modest price rebounds for oil‑sanction relief.
Trump pledges no compromise on Iranian uranium in talks with Netanyahu
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 3%1%
Trump pledged to Netanyahu there would be no compromise on Iranian uranium, indicating a hardline stance against any residual enrichment.
Iran rejects enriched uranium transfer, citing distrust of US
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 5%1%
Iran’s Foreign Minister publicly rejected any transfer of enriched uranium to the US, citing lack of trust and ongoing tensions. This official denial directly contradicted US claims and significantly reduced market expectations for a uranium enrichment agreement.
Trump insists Iran will stop enrichment and the U.S. will remove its stockpile
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 5%7%
Trump said on Truth Social that Iran would not enrich uranium any longer and that the United States would help "dig up and remove" the buried stockpile, signalling a hard‑line stance against any continued enrichment. The market dropped from 12 % to 5 % the following day, reflecting reduced confidence in a US‑acceptance of continued Iranian enrichment.
Iran denies Trump's claim on enriched uranium deal
Iran officially denied Trump's claim that a deal existed, reinforcing the market's skepticism and keeping prices low.
Trump says Iran will not hand over enriched uranium, calling it a non‑starter
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 2%3%
Trump reiterated that the United States would not accept any shipment of Iran’s enriched uranium, reinforcing the maximalist demand and pushing the enrichment‑outcome price lower.
Iran rejects UN atomic agency resolution, threatens reprisals
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 5%2%
Iran condemned a UN atomic watchdog resolution demanding cooperation on uranium stockpiles and inspections, threatening retaliatory actions including possible further uranium enrichment, indicating no willingness to concede on nuclear program limits.
Iran’s foreign minister signals uranium enrichment is non-negotiable
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 7%4%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated Iran would stick to its position that it must be able to enrich uranium, a major point of contention with the US and Trump, indicating no compromise on this demand was forthcoming.
Trump threatens to obliterate Iran’s power plants if the Strait remains closed
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
In a social‑media post, Trump warned he would destroy Iranian power infrastructure unless the Hormuz blockade was lifted, reinforcing the view that no nuclear‑enrichment deal would be accepted.
U.S. imposes full naval blockade of Iranian ports
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 5%6%
The Trump administration announced a comprehensive blockade of all Iranian ports, signaling a hardline approach and further diminishing prospects for any enrichment agreement.
Trump reiterates US strikes 'obliterated' Iran's nuclear capabilities
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 7%4%
President Trump claimed US strikes had destroyed Iran's nuclear program and warned of steep consequences if Iran did not make a deal, signaling no acceptance of uranium enrichment continuation. This reinforced market skepticism about US agreement to Iran's nuclear demands.
Trump insists U.S. talks with Iran continue amid tough stance on nuclear program
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 4%1%
President Trump stated that talks with Iran were ongoing but maintained pressure, warning of steep consequences if Iran did not make a deal, especially on uranium enrichment, reinforcing market skepticism about U.S. acceptance of enrichment.
Trump hints at possible diplomatic breakthrough in Oman
Enrichment of Uranium jumps to 12%9%
During a televised interview, Trump suggested that U.S. negotiators had received a "much better" proposal from Iran and that talks in Oman could resume. The tentative optimism caused a brief rebound in the Enrichment of Uranium price to 12% on May 1.
Trump addresses nation on Iran war, offers no new details on nuclear deal
President Trump gave a primetime address explaining the rationale for the war against Iran but provided few details on strategy or negotiations. He reiterated that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and warned of missile strikes if Iran moves toward enrichment. The speech did not signal any U.S. acceptance of Iran’s uranium enrichment, maintaining pressure and uncertainty in the market.
Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 5%6%
President Trump declared a full‑scale blockade of all Iranian ports, warning that the blockade would stay in place until Tehran agrees to a deal, reinforcing market belief that enrichment concessions were unlikely.
Iranian official says U.S. maximalist demands stall face-to-face talks
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 5%6%
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh stated Iran is not ready for face-to-face talks due to U.S. maximalist demands and rejected handing over enriched uranium, signaling no U.S. agreement to uranium enrichment continuation.
Iranian deputy foreign minister calls U.S. demands “maximalist” and rejects enriched uranium hand‑over
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
Khatibzadeh’s statement that the U.S. demands are non‑starter reinforced market belief that no agreement on enrichment is forthcoming, pushing the price lower.
President Trump announces a full naval blockade of all Iranian ports
Unfreeze Iranian Assets plunges to 20%28%
Trump declared a comprehensive blockade, signaling that the United States would not lift economic pressure until Tehran accepts U.S. terms, dampening expectations for asset unfreeze and oil‑sanction relief.
US Treasury sanctions 6 Chinese chemical components companies connected to Iran
Yes plunges to 11%37%
This economic sanction action against companies linked to Iran's nuclear program added pressure on negotiations, contributing to market volatility.
President Trump announces a full naval blockade of Iranian ports
Oil Sanction Relief plunges to 25%25%
Trump declared that the United States would block all Iranian ports, signaling a hardening U.S. stance and further diminishing prospects for a uranium‑enrichment agreement.
US imposes military blockade on Iranian ports, escalating tensions
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
President Trump announced a US military blockade on all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a deal, increasing hostilities and reducing chances of a deal accepting uranium enrichment. Iran responded with threats and closed the Strait of Hormuz, further complicating negotiations.
Trump declares full naval blockade of Iranian ports
Enrichment of Uranium drops to 3%8%
Trump announced a comprehensive blockade of all Iranian ports, stating it would remain until Tehran agrees to U.S. terms. The aggressive stance further dimmed hopes of a nuclear deal, causing the Enrichment of Uranium price to plunge from 11% to 3% on April 30.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on passing ships
Transit Fees in the Strait of Hormuz plunges to 9%38%
Iran’s IRGC announced a full closure of the strategic waterway and began targeting vessels, heightening oil‑shipping risks and undermining hopes for transit‑fee relief and oil‑sanction easing.
Iran and US agree to hold nuclear talks in Oman amid high tensions
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced nuclear talks with the US in Oman, but Trump issued a blunt warning to Iran's Supreme Leader. The talks were seen as tentative with no clear concessions, maintaining uncertainty about uranium enrichment acceptance.
Iranian deputy foreign minister says US ‘maximalist’ demands block talks
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
In an interview in Antalya, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh said the US would not abandon its maximalist demands and Iran would not hand over enriched uranium, signaling a deadlock on the enrichment issue.
Trump says U.S. will not accept Iran’s continued uranium enrichment
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
President Trump publicly declared that the United States will not agree to any arrangement that permits Iran to keep enriching uranium, reinforcing his maximalist stance and prompting a steep decline in the Enrichment of Uranium market price.
Trump says Iran has agreed to no longer enrich uranium
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 1%47%
Trump stated that Iran has agreed to no longer enrich uranium, setting a negative baseline for the market. This announcement caused a sharp price drop to 1% for the Enrichment of Uranium market.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister cites US 'maximalist' demands stalling talks
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh stated that Iran was not ready for face-to-face talks due to the US holding onto maximalist demands, including refusal to accept Iran's uranium enrichment. This hardened stance contributed to market declines in the likelihood of US agreement to uranium enrichment.
Iran denies Trump's claim on enriched uranium deal
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
Iran's Foreign Minister denied Trump's claim of a deal, stating 'No such deal exists' and citing distrust of the United States.
Trump declares Iran will end uranium enrichment and cooperate on uranium stockpile removal
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
President Trump announced that Iran would halt uranium enrichment and cooperate with the US to recover and secure its uranium stockpile, signaling a potential US demand for Iran to cease enrichment. This announcement initially supported market optimism for US acceptance of uranium-related demands but lacked Iranian confirmation.
Iranian official says US 'maximalist' demands stall face-to-face talks
Enrichment of Uranium dips to 7%4%
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh stated that the US's maximalist demands, including on uranium enrichment, prevent new face-to-face talks, signaling no US acceptance of Iran's enrichment rights soon.
Trump insists U.S. talks with Iran continue but warns of steep consequences
Enrichment of Uranium plunges to 11%37%
President Trump affirmed ongoing talks with Iran but maintained pressure, warning of severe consequences if Iran does not make a deal, especially on nuclear issues including uranium enrichment, keeping market skepticism high.
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