Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Nicolás Maduro a 51.1% implied probability as Venezuela's leader by end-2026, despite his January 3 U.S. military capture and ongoing New York trial delayed until 2027, likely due to his constitutional term extending into 2031 and uncertain UN recognition of his status amid the disputed transition. Delcy Rodríguez, his former vice president now acting president at 31.5%, has consolidated power through recent purges of Maduro allies (April 18), top military commander replacements (March 20), and U.S. sanctions relief (April 2), yet faces institutional fragility. Opposition figure María Corina Machado (10%) plans a return for potential elections, as urged by U.S. officials like Marco Rubio, but chavismo control tempers prospects amid no set vote date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 51.1%
Delcy Rodríguez 32%
María Corina Machado 10%
No Head of State <1%
$84,214,175 Vol.
$84,214,175 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
51%
Delcy Rodríguez
32%
María Corina Machado
10%
No Head of State
1%
Donald Trump
1%
Dinorah Figuera
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 51.1%
Delcy Rodríguez 32%
María Corina Machado 10%
No Head of State <1%
$84,214,175 Vol.
$84,214,175 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$1,266,470 Vol.
51%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,495,404 Vol.
32%
María Corina Machado
$984,226 Vol.
10%
No Head of State
$857,921 Vol.
1%
Donald Trump
$824,674 Vol.
1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,139,653 Vol.
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1,393,904 Vol.
<1%
Edmundo González
$649,996 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$632,328 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$933,594 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$729,285 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$4,432,425 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$2,915,217 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$8,321,938 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$24,894,259 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$31,742,971 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Nicolás Maduro a 51.1% implied probability as Venezuela's leader by end-2026, despite his January 3 U.S. military capture and ongoing New York trial delayed until 2027, likely due to his constitutional term extending into 2031 and uncertain UN recognition of his status amid the disputed transition. Delcy Rodríguez, his former vice president now acting president at 31.5%, has consolidated power through recent purges of Maduro allies (April 18), top military commander replacements (March 20), and U.S. sanctions relief (April 2), yet faces institutional fragility. Opposition figure María Corina Machado (10%) plans a return for potential elections, as urged by U.S. officials like Marco Rubio, but chavismo control tempers prospects amid no set vote date.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$84,214,175End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Nicolás Maduro a 51.1% implied probability as Venezuela's leader by end-2026, despite his January 3 U.S. military capture and ongoing New York trial delayed until 2027, likely due to his constitutional term extending into 2031 and uncertain UN recognition of his status amid the disputed transition. Delcy Rodríguez, his former vice president now acting president at 31.5%, has consolidated power through recent purges of Maduro allies (April 18), top military commander replacements (March 20), and U.S. sanctions relief (April 2), yet faces institutional fragility. Opposition figure María Corina Machado (10%) plans a return for potential elections, as urged by U.S. officials like Marco Rubio, but chavismo control tempers prospects amid no set vote date.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$84,214,175End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Nicolás Maduro a 51.1% implied probability as Venezuela's leader by end-2026, despite his January 3 U.S. military capture and ongoing New York trial delayed until 2027, likely due to his constitutional term extending into 2031 and uncertain UN recognition of his status amid the disputed transition. Delcy Rodríguez, his former vice president now acting president at 31.5%, has consolidated power through recent purges of Maduro allies (April 18), top military commander replacements (March 20), and U.S. sanctions relief (April 2), yet faces institutional fragility. Opposition figure María Corina Machado (10%) plans a return for potential elections, as urged by U.S. officials like Marco Rubio, but chavismo control tempers prospects amid no set vote date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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