Democratic incumbent Bobby Scott holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. The district’s strong Democratic lean, centered in Hampton Roads areas including Norfolk and Newport News, has produced consistent double-digit margins for Scott in prior cycles, including roughly 70% in 2024. Scott advanced automatically after the August 4 Democratic primary was canceled, while Republican nominees such as Edwin Rivera face limited fundraising and name recognition. Independent and third-party candidates have not altered the structural dynamics. A late national partisan swing, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current ratings from Cook, DDHQ, and Inside Elections classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVA-03 House Election Winner
VA-03 House Election Winner
$43,090 Vol.
$43,090 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$43,090 Vol.
$43,090 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,441 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$21,649 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Bobby Scott holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. The district’s strong Democratic lean, centered in Hampton Roads areas including Norfolk and Newport News, has produced consistent double-digit margins for Scott in prior cycles, including roughly 70% in 2024. Scott advanced automatically after the August 4 Democratic primary was canceled, while Republican nominees such as Edwin Rivera face limited fundraising and name recognition. Independent and third-party candidates have not altered the structural dynamics. A late national partisan swing, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current ratings from Cook, DDHQ, and Inside Elections classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$43,090End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Bobby Scott holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. The district’s strong Democratic lean, centered in Hampton Roads areas including Norfolk and Newport News, has produced consistent double-digit margins for Scott in prior cycles, including roughly 70% in 2024. Scott advanced automatically after the August 4 Democratic primary was canceled, while Republican nominees such as Edwin Rivera face limited fundraising and name recognition. Independent and third-party candidates have not altered the structural dynamics. A late national partisan swing, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current ratings from Cook, DDHQ, and Inside Elections classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$43,090End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Bobby Scott holds a commanding position in Virginia’s 3rd Congressional District heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Democratic nominee. The district’s strong Democratic lean, centered in Hampton Roads areas including Norfolk and Newport News, has produced consistent double-digit margins for Scott in prior cycles, including roughly 70% in 2024. Scott advanced automatically after the August 4 Democratic primary was canceled, while Republican nominees such as Edwin Rivera face limited fundraising and name recognition. Independent and third-party candidates have not altered the structural dynamics. A late national partisan swing, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap, though historical patterns and current ratings from Cook, DDHQ, and Inside Elections classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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