Recent US sanctions tightening, a naval blockade that has slashed Iranian oil exports toward zero, and inflation exceeding 70 percent have driven the rial to record lows near 2.7 million per dollar on the free market. Central bank interventions of up to $2 billion have provided only temporary support amid capital flight into dollars and gold. Ongoing diplomatic contacts on nuclear inspections and sanctions relief introduce uncertainty, as any verified easing or resumed exports could strengthen the currency while sustained pressure or stalled talks would likely sustain depreciation through year-end. These opposing forces—economic isolation versus the possibility of negotiated relief—keep trader probabilities clustered across the 2.0–3.5 million range without clear dominance.