This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 63% chance of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026, but only 13% by May 31, reflecting cautious optimism amid stalled indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan. VP JD Vance stated on May 13 that progress continues despite President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest proposal three days earlier, which Iran countered by accusing the US of unreasonable demands on nuclear enrichment moratoriums—US seeking 20 years versus Iran's five—sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. The April 8 ceasefire holds tenuously amid US blockades and economic pressures, with upcoming talks potentially bridging gaps before year-end deadlines, though historical JCPOA timelines suggest hurdles remain for a signed treaty explicitly ending hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices a 63% chance of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026, but only 13% by May 31, reflecting cautious optimism amid stalled indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan. VP JD Vance stated on May 13 that progress continues despite President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest proposal three days earlier, which Iran countered by accusing the US of unreasonable demands on nuclear enrichment moratoriums—US seeking 20 years versus Iran's five—sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. The April 8 ceasefire holds tenuously amid US blockades and economic pressures, with upcoming talks potentially bridging gaps before year-end deadlines, though historical JCPOA timelines suggest hurdles remain for a signed treaty explicitly ending hostilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 10 2026
U.S. blockade leads to seizure of additional Iranian tankers
May 13 drops to 0%14%
Further interdictions reinforced the perception that the conflict was far from resolution, pushing the market for the May 13 outcome toward zero.
May 7 2026
Trump says Iran has offered a “much better” proposal
May 15 dips to 5%4%
Trump’s comment that Iran’s latest offer was substantially improved revived optimism for a quick deal, causing a short‑term price uptick for the May 15 outcome.
May 2 2026
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed US‑Iran talks
May 31 dips to 12%2%
Stocks rose in Asia after reports that back‑channel diplomacy was progressing, briefly boosting confidence in a May 31 settlement.
Apr 30 2026
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
May 31 dips to 14%4%
The sanctions warning added economic pressure on Iran and signaled a tougher U.S. stance, pushing market prices for later deadlines lower.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan for talks
May 31 drops to 18%5%
A brief diplomatic visit raised hopes of a breakthrough, temporarily lifting market prices for the May 31 outcome before the optimism faded later in the week.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid stalled negotiations
May 15 drops to 1%14%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump said he told envoys not to travel to Islamabad, signaling a breakdown in planned talks. This increased doubts about near-term peace prospects and contributed to falling market prices for early resolution dates.
Apr 23 2026
Trump orders U.S. forces to “shoot and kill” small boats in Hormuz
May 15 drops to 9%6%
Trump’s aggressive directive signaled a willingness to use force, further eroding market expectations of a diplomatic resolution before the May 15 deadline.
Apr 21 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
May 13 drops to 14%8%
The seizure heightened tensions and suggested the ceasefire could collapse, prompting traders to sharply reduce the probability of a permanent agreement before the May 13 deadline.
Apr 19 2026
US seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz, Iran vows swift response
May 13 plunges to 0%22%
The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, marking a ceasefire violation and escalating tensions. President Trump announced US negotiators would attend talks in Pakistan, but Iran had not confirmed participation, maintaining uncertainty about peace progress.
Apr 19 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 31 drops to 23%8%
President Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s newest offer, removing any immediate optimism for a deal and causing a further drop in market confidence for all outcomes.
Apr 18 2026
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to US blockade
June 30 plunges to 45%16%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating the standoff after the US blockade of Iranian ports. This action threatened to deepen the conflict and global energy crisis, undermining peace prospects.
Apr 18 2026
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s IRGC announced the complete closure of the strategic waterway and engaged vessels, signaling a hardening stance that pushed market prices for a peace deal sharply lower.
Apr 14 2026
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid ongoing blockade and ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
Diplomats, including Pakistani mediators, sought to arrange a new round of talks between the US and Iran after the US naval blockade began. Despite efforts, no immediate agreement was reached, and the ceasefire remained fragile, sustaining market uncertainty.
Apr 13 2026
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled ceasefire talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a US military blockade of all Iranian ports following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This move aimed to pressure Iran into a deal but increased hostilities and uncertainty about peace prospects.
Apr 13 2026
U.S. announces naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 dips to 40%4%
President Trump declared a full‑scale naval blockade of all Iranian ports, intensifying pressure on Tehran and prompting traders to downgrade the odds of a permanent peace deal before any deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 63% chance of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026, but only 13% by May 31, reflecting cautious optimism amid stalled indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan. VP JD Vance stated on May 13 that progress continues despite President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest proposal three days earlier, which Iran countered by accusing the US of unreasonable demands on nuclear enrichment moratoriums—US seeking 20 years versus Iran's five—sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. The April 8 ceasefire holds tenuously amid US blockades and economic pressures, with upcoming talks potentially bridging gaps before year-end deadlines, though historical JCPOA timelines suggest hurdles remain for a signed treaty explicitly ending hostilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices a 63% chance of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026, but only 13% by May 31, reflecting cautious optimism amid stalled indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan. VP JD Vance stated on May 13 that progress continues despite President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest proposal three days earlier, which Iran countered by accusing the US of unreasonable demands on nuclear enrichment moratoriums—US seeking 20 years versus Iran's five—sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. The April 8 ceasefire holds tenuously amid US blockades and economic pressures, with upcoming talks potentially bridging gaps before year-end deadlines, though historical JCPOA timelines suggest hurdles remain for a signed treaty explicitly ending hostilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
May 10 2026
U.S. blockade leads to seizure of additional Iranian tankers
May 13 drops to 0%14%
Further interdictions reinforced the perception that the conflict was far from resolution, pushing the market for the May 13 outcome toward zero.
May 7 2026
Trump says Iran has offered a “much better” proposal
May 15 dips to 5%4%
Trump’s comment that Iran’s latest offer was substantially improved revived optimism for a quick deal, causing a short‑term price uptick for the May 15 outcome.
May 2 2026
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed US‑Iran talks
May 31 dips to 12%2%
Stocks rose in Asia after reports that back‑channel diplomacy was progressing, briefly boosting confidence in a May 31 settlement.
Apr 30 2026
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
May 31 dips to 14%4%
The sanctions warning added economic pressure on Iran and signaled a tougher U.S. stance, pushing market prices for later deadlines lower.
Apr 26 2026
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan for talks
May 31 drops to 18%5%
A brief diplomatic visit raised hopes of a breakthrough, temporarily lifting market prices for the May 31 outcome before the optimism faded later in the week.
Apr 25 2026
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks amid stalled negotiations
May 15 drops to 1%14%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump said he told envoys not to travel to Islamabad, signaling a breakdown in planned talks. This increased doubts about near-term peace prospects and contributed to falling market prices for early resolution dates.
Apr 23 2026
Trump orders U.S. forces to “shoot and kill” small boats in Hormuz
May 15 drops to 9%6%
Trump’s aggressive directive signaled a willingness to use force, further eroding market expectations of a diplomatic resolution before the May 15 deadline.
Apr 21 2026
US Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
May 13 drops to 14%8%
The seizure heightened tensions and suggested the ceasefire could collapse, prompting traders to sharply reduce the probability of a permanent agreement before the May 13 deadline.
Apr 19 2026
US seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz, Iran vows swift response
May 13 plunges to 0%22%
The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, marking a ceasefire violation and escalating tensions. President Trump announced US negotiators would attend talks in Pakistan, but Iran had not confirmed participation, maintaining uncertainty about peace progress.
Apr 19 2026
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 31 drops to 23%8%
President Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s newest offer, removing any immediate optimism for a deal and causing a further drop in market confidence for all outcomes.
Apr 18 2026
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to US blockade
June 30 plunges to 45%16%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating the standoff after the US blockade of Iranian ports. This action threatened to deepen the conflict and global energy crisis, undermining peace prospects.
Apr 18 2026
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s IRGC announced the complete closure of the strategic waterway and engaged vessels, signaling a hardening stance that pushed market prices for a peace deal sharply lower.
Apr 14 2026
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid ongoing blockade and ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
Diplomats, including Pakistani mediators, sought to arrange a new round of talks between the US and Iran after the US naval blockade began. Despite efforts, no immediate agreement was reached, and the ceasefire remained fragile, sustaining market uncertainty.
Apr 13 2026
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled ceasefire talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a US military blockade of all Iranian ports following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This move aimed to pressure Iran into a deal but increased hostilities and uncertainty about peace prospects.
Apr 13 2026
U.S. announces naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 dips to 40%4%
President Trump declared a full‑scale naval blockade of all Iranian ports, intensifying pressure on Tehran and prompting traders to downgrade the odds of a permanent peace deal before any deadline.
"US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 64%, followed by "June 30" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" has generated $112.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" is "December 31" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $112.6 million traded on “US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 64¢ for "December 31" in the "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 64% chance that "December 31" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 64¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 36¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?" market has an active community of 2,264 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
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