Negotiations for a permanent US-Iran peace deal remain stalled after a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed on April 8, 2026, and mediated by Pakistan amid the ongoing war over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear limits, and sanctions. President Trump declared the truce on "life support" yesterday, criticizing Iran's response as unacceptable, while Tehran accused the US of ceasefire violations and demands full sanctions relief, frozen asset releases, and Hormuz sovereignty recognition before addressing nuclear rollback. Key disputes center on verification of Iran's ballistic missile program and guarantees against future US or Israeli strikes, with no next talks scheduled despite US proposals for a comprehensive framework. Traders weigh deep mistrust and escalation risks against diplomatic pressures, including proxy de-escalation in Lebanon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTrump states ceasefire with Iran is “on life support” after rejecting Tehran’s response
May 13 dips to 1%1%
Trump’s statement underscored the collapse of peace talks, pushing the market probability to near zero.
U.S. re‑imposes its naval blockade of Iranian ports after the brief pause, signaling a return to a hardline stance and further eroding confidence in a permanent deal
May 15 dips to 1%3%
U.S. re‑imposes its naval blockade of Iranian ports after the brief pause, signaling a return to a hardline stance and further eroding confidence in a permanent deal
Iranian state media confirms Tehran’s official response to US proposal focused on cessation of hostilities; negotiations stall
May 31 drops to 18%13%
Reports of stalled negotiations and limited progress on a permanent peace deal led to a sharp drop in market confidence for the May 31 outcome.
CNN reports a source saying talks are “closing in” on a short memorandum, but also that Iran’s review is ongoing, causing a modest rebound to ~47 % “Yes”
June 30 rises to 47%2%
CNN reports a source saying talks are “closing in” on a short memorandum, but also that Iran’s review is ongoing, causing a modest rebound to ~47 % “Yes”
Market reacts to mixed developments as peace talks show progress but also setbacks;
December 31 rises to 78%3%
Market reacts to mixed developments as peace talks show progress but also setbacks;
The Trump administration’s framework for a permanent peace deal is dismissed as “unacceptable,” with officials stating the U.S.
May 11 dips to 0%1%
will not move forward on the plan
Iranian state media reports Tehran’s formal response to the latest U.S.
May 15 drops to 4%9%
peace proposal, but details are withheld, prompting market uncertainty
Trump calls Iran’s response to US peace proposal “totally unacceptable,” peace talks stall
May 13 drops to 2%8%
Trump’s public rejection of Iran’s response marked a significant setback, sharply reducing market expectations for a deal.
Iran sends its response to the U.S.
May 11 dips to 1%3%
cease‑fire proposal via Pakistani mediators, but President Donald Trump declares the offer “totally unacceptable” and rejects it
US and Iran hold ceasefire but no breakthrough; UK deploys destroyer to Middle East amid tensions
May 13 dips to 9%3%
Continued military posturing and lack of negotiation progress kept peace deal prospects low.
U.S. Central Command reported “defensive strikes” against what it called unprovoked Iranian attacks in the Hormuz Strait, reinforcing the view that hostilities were continuing and
May 13 dips to 7%2%
U.S. Central Command reported “defensive strikes” against what it called unprovoked Iranian attacks in the Hormuz Strait, reinforcing the view that hostilities were continuing and that a permanent agreement remained unlikely
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launches missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates – the first attacks since the April 8 truce – raising doubts about a lasting
May 15 drops to 13%7%
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launches missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates – the first attacks since the April 8 truce – raising doubts about a lasting settlement
Al Jazeera notes Iran is still reviewing the U.S.
June 30 drops to 45%9%
proposal and that no final agreement has been signed, leading the market to dip back toward the low‑40 % range
US awaits Iranian response to peace proposal amid Iranian criticism of US demands
May 13 dips to 12%4%
Iran called US peace efforts “grotesque absurdity,” signaling deep divisions and reducing market confidence in a deal.
Iran publicly reviews a US peace proposal aiming to end the war, following Iran’s submission of a 10-point peace plan;
December 31 rises to 75%1%
exchanges of fire continue in the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting ongoing tensions despite diplomatic efforts
Qatar’s prime minister meets U.S.
May 11 dips to 4%2%
Vice‑President JD Vance in Washington to discuss renewed diplomacy, but the focus shifts to intensive talks on Israel‑Lebanon borders, indicating U.S. attention is moving away from a US‑Iran settlement
U.S. and Iranian officials began hammering out a one‑page memorandum that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give 30 days to negotiate a comprehensive settlement, signalling a
May 13 dips to 9%2%
U.S. and Iranian officials began hammering out a one‑page memorandum that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and give 30 days to negotiate a comprehensive settlement, signalling a possible short‑term cease‑fire rather than a lasting peace
Iran publicly states it is reviewing US peace proposal but key demands remain unresolved
May 31 drops to 30%5%
Iran’s cautious response to the US proposal without clear acceptance dampened optimism, leading to a.
Iran announced it was reviewing a U.S.
May 13 dips to 11%2%
peace proposal that would formally end the war but left key U.S. demands (nuclear suspension, Hormuz reopening) unresolved, dampening hopes for an immediate permanent deal
US military strikes Iranian targets after Iran fires on US warships; Trump threatens more if no peace deal
May 31 rises to 35%4%
Renewed military clashes in the Strait of Hormuz and Trump’s warnings increased uncertainty but also underscored urgency for a peace deal, causing volatile.
U.S. forces struck Iranian military targets after Iran allegedly fired on U.S.
May 13 drops to 13%9%
warships in the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump warned of further action unless Tehran accepted a peace offer
US and Iran exchange fire but maintain ceasefire; no breakthrough in peace talks reported
May 13 drops to 16%6%
Despite ongoing ceasefire, exchanges of fire and no progress in negotiations dampened optimism for a permanent peace deal.
U.S. and Iranian officials meet in Islamabad for high‑level talks;
May 15 dips to 20%2%
sources say a one‑page memorandum outlining a permanent cease‑fire is “the closest the parties have come to an agreement”
The US military strikes Iranian targets after Iran fired on US warships in the Strait of Hormuz;
December 31 dips to 74%3%
President Trump threatens more strikes if Iran does not agree to a peace offer, causing market volatility amid mixed signals on peace talks
US and Iran move closer to an agreement on a short memorandum to end the Iran war, with President Trump simplifying issues to bring moderates back to the table;
December 31 jumps to 77%14%
Iran is reviewing the US proposal
President Trump posts on Truth Social that the naval blockade will remain but the “Project Freedom” mission is temporarily paused to make room for diplomatic efforts toward a
May 15 jumps to 22%7%
President Trump posts on Truth Social that the naval blockade will remain but the “Project Freedom” mission is temporarily paused to make room for diplomatic efforts toward a peace deal
Axios reports that U.S. officials say a one‑page memo to end the war is close, and Trump backs off a planned strike, sending odds up to a May‑8 peak of 54 %
June 30 jumps to 54%10%
Axios reports that U.S. officials say a one‑page memo to end the war is close, and Trump backs off a planned strike, sending odds up to a May‑8 peak of 54 %
Iran reviews US peace proposal amid reports of a near agreement; Trump pauses naval mission citing talks progress
May 31 surges to 31%17%
Reports that Iran was reviewing a US peace proposal and Trump’s pause of naval operations raised hopes for a deal, causing a significant.
Iran says it is reviewing a U.S.
May 15 jumps to 15%11%
peace proposal that would formally end the war, while the United States pauses its two‑day‑old naval “Project Freedom” mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Trump announces a further extension of the cease‑fire only until Iran submits a permanent‑peace proposal, removing pressure on Tehran and pushing the market to its lowest level
May 31 plunges to 14%19%
Trump announces a further extension of the cease‑fire only until Iran submits a permanent‑peace proposal, removing pressure on Tehran and pushing the market to its lowest level
Reports emerge that the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page memo to end the war, marking the closest the parties have come to an agreement so far, though nothing is finalized
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
Reports emerge that the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page memo to end the war, marking the closest the parties have come to an agreement so far, though nothing is finalized yet
Trump announces the US will help free ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz but does not commit to a permanent peace framework, leaving the market at its lowest level
May 31 drops to 14%5%
Trump announces the US will help free ships stuck in the Strait of Hormuz but does not commit to a permanent peace framework, leaving the market at its lowest level
Iran says it has received a US response to its latest peace offer;
May 31 dips to 19%3%
the US side signals likely rejection, further eroding hopes for a permanent deal
Iran says it has received a US response to its latest offer;
May 31 dips to 33%1%
US officials indicate the proposal will likely be rejected
Iran says it has received a U.S.
June 30 jumps to 39%8%
response to its latest peace offer, but no public acceptance is given, keeping market sentiment low
U.S. officials say “very positive discussions” are ongoing but no definitive agreement has been reached, providing a modest rebound after the May 1 dip
June 30 jumps to 39%8%
U.S. officials say “very positive discussions” are ongoing but no definitive agreement has been reached, providing a modest rebound after the May 1 dip
President Trump publicly states he is “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest offer and warns the U.S.
June 30 plunges to 31%22%
may resume attacks, driving the
Iran submits a new 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators;
May 31 rises to 34%1%
Trump publicly says he is “not satisfied,” dampening hopes for a permanent deal
Trump tweets that he will likely reject Iran’s latest offer, stating Tehran “has not paid a big enough
June 30 plunges to 31%16%
Trump tweets that he will likely reject Iran’s latest offer, stating Tehran “has not paid a big enough
Iran submits a new 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators;
May 31 rises to 22%2%
Trump publicly declares he is “not satisfied” and doubts the offer
U.S. officials confirmed the continuation of a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the Islamabad talks collapsed, underscoring that military pressure remained and a permanent
May 15 rises to 8%1%
U.S. officials confirmed the continuation of a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the Islamabad talks collapsed, underscoring that military pressure remained and a permanent cease‑fire was unlikely
No new definitive agreement is announced;
April 30 dips to 0%1%
analysts note the stalemate and the imminent cease‑fire expiry, driving the
The U.S. Senate failed for the sixth time to advance an Iran War Powers Resolution, leaving the cease‑fire fragile and reducing confidence that a permanent peace framework could
May 15 dips to 7%3%
The U.S. Senate failed for the sixth time to advance an Iran War Powers Resolution, leaving the cease‑fire fragile and reducing confidence that a permanent peace framework could be ratified
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a “finger on the trigger” warning, signalling renewed military readiness and suggesting the cease‑fire could break before the May 15 deadline,
May 15 dips to 8%2%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards issued a “finger on the trigger” warning, signalling renewed military readiness and suggesting the cease‑fire could break before the May 15 deadline, pushing the Yes probability down to a low‑single‑digit level
CNN notes mediators expect a revised Iranian peace proposal “within days”;
June 30 rises to 44%3%
the possibility of a new offer nudges the odds slightly higher
U.S. officials reiterate they will not lift the blockade until Iran meets “maximalist” demands; the stalled stance drags the
June 30 drops to 41%6%
U.S. officials reiterate they will not lift the blockade until Iran meets “maximalist” demands; the stalled stance drags the
President Trump announced that U.S.
May 15 dips to 10%2%
negotiators would travel to Pakistan for peace talks, but the same day Vice‑President JD Vance’s planned Islamabad trip was called off, underscoring a sudden diplomatic retreat and further dampening market optimism
Trump says US representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran and promises to free stranded ships, briefly lifting market pessimism
May 31 drops to 33%6%
Trump says US representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran and promises to free stranded ships, briefly lifting market pessimism
Trump scrubs a planned envoy visit to Islamabad, signaling a hardening U.S.
April 30 drops to 1%6%
stance and further diminishing prospects for a permanent deal
Trump posted a mock‑up image of himself holding a gun on Truth Social, warning Iran to “get smart soon” after peace talks stalled, which further dampened expectations of a lasting
May 15 dips to 10%2%
Trump posted a mock‑up image of himself holding a gun on Truth Social, warning Iran to “get smart soon” after peace talks stalled, which further dampened expectations of a lasting agreement
Trump says US representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran while simultaneously warning Tehran to “get smart soon,” reflecting mixed signals
May 31 dips to 28%2%
Trump says US representatives are having “very positive discussions” with Iran while simultaneously warning Tehran to “get smart soon,” reflecting mixed signals
President Donald Trump discussed a new Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but rejected its “no‑nuclear‑talks” terms, signalling U.S.
May 15 dips to 12%3%
reluctance to accept a permanent deal
Trump discusses the Iranian proposal with top security aides and later cancels a planned envoy visit to Islamabad, indicating a stall in talks and pushing the market down
June 30 jumps to 53%7%
Trump discusses the Iranian proposal with top security aides and later cancels a planned envoy visit to Islamabad, indicating a stall in talks and pushing the market down
U.S. officials discuss the new Iranian proposal and label it “not enough,” while Trump says he will review it, leading to a further decline
June 30 rises to 47%1%
U.S. officials discuss the new Iranian proposal and label it “not enough,” while Trump says he will review it, leading to a further decline
Iran fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after President Trump announced an extension of the two‑week cease‑fire, raising fears the truce was
May 15 dips to 12%2%
Iran fired on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hours after President Trump announced an extension of the two‑week cease‑fire, raising fears the truce was collapsing and that a permanent peace pact was unlikely
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Moscow for high‑level talks with President Putin after a failed Islamabad round, signalling that Tehran was still seeking a
May 15 dips to 14%1%
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travelled to Moscow for high‑level talks with President Putin after a failed Islamabad round, signalling that Tehran was still seeking a diplomatic path but had not secured a deal
Multiple outlets (Al Jazeera, PBS, Reuters) report Iran’s foreign minister meeting Putin in Russia and offering a “re‑open Hormuz” plan that postpones nuclear talks, keeping hope
June 30 drops to 47%8%
Multiple outlets (Al Jazeera, PBS, Reuters) report Iran’s foreign minister meeting Putin in Russia and offering a “re‑open Hormuz” plan that postpones nuclear talks, keeping hope alive
Reuters: President Trump discusses a new Iranian proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, but he says it is “not enough”; the mixed signal pushes the
June 30 jumps to 55%10%
Reuters: President Trump discusses a new Iranian proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, but he says it is “not enough”; the mixed signal pushes the
Iran, via Pakistani mediators, submits a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war while postponing nuclear talks;
April 30 plunges to 7%34%
the U.S. rejects it as incomplete, sending the market sharply lower
Trump pauses “Project Freedom” to reopen Strait of Hormuz citing progress in peace talks
May 31 rises to 34%2%
Trump’s unexpected halt of the naval mission to reopen the critical shipping route signaled potential diplomatic progress, briefly boosting market confidence.
Iran delivers a 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators, but Trump signals he will likely reject it, causing the
June 30 drops to 46%11%
Iran delivers a 14‑point peace proposal to Pakistani mediators, but Trump signals he will likely reject it, causing the
Trump pauses “Project Freedom” (the operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz) after “progress” in talks, prompting a brief surge to ~55 % “Yes”
June 30 jumps to 55%9%
Trump pauses “Project Freedom” (the operation to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz) after “progress” in talks, prompting a brief surge to ~55 % “Yes”
Trump cancels the planned trip of the envoys to Pakistan, citing uncertainty over Iranian participation; markets react negatively
June 30 plunges to 45%19%
Trump cancels the planned trip of the envoys to Pakistan, citing uncertainty over Iranian participation; markets react negatively
US officials report interception of 13‑23 Iranian‑bound tankers despite the blockade, signaling continued hostilities
May 31 drops to 39%5%
US officials report interception of 13‑23 Iranian‑bound tankers despite the blockade, signaling continued hostilities
White House confirms that special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are flying back to Islamabad to resume talks, reviving optimism
June 30 jumps to 64%6%
White House confirms that special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are flying back to Islamabad to resume talks, reviving optimism
Iran submits a 14‑point proposal via Pakistani mediators, but the U.S.
June 30 plunges to 46%19%
says it does not address nuclear issues, causing the market to retreat
US officials report “some progress” from Iran but note that key Iranian leaders (e.g., speaker Ghalibaf) will not attend the Islamabad talks, heightening uncertainty
May 31 rises to 34%1%
US officials report “some progress” from Iran but note that key Iranian leaders (e.g., speaker Ghalibaf) will not attend the Islamabad talks, heightening uncertainty
Iran’s IRGC captures the MSC Francesca in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring continued hostilities despite the cease‑fire and prompting a market pullback
June 30 dips to 57%4%
Iran’s IRGC captures the MSC Francesca in the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring continued hostilities despite the cease‑fire and prompting a market pullback
Trump pauses “Project Freedom” – the operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – citing “great progress” in peace talks, which temporarily dampens odds as traders await a formal
June 30 plunges to 54%28%
Trump pauses “Project Freedom” – the operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – citing “great progress” in peace talks, which temporarily dampens odds as traders await a formal document
Iran rejects the US 15‑point peace plan and insists any cease‑fire must include Lebanon, signalling a stalemate
May 31 drops to 39%5%
Iran rejects the US 15‑point peace plan and insists any cease‑fire must include Lebanon, signalling a stalemate
Iran rejects the US 15‑point peace plan and demands inclusion of Lebanon, causing a drop in optimism
May 31 plunges to 44%18%
Iran rejects the US 15‑point peace plan and demands inclusion of Lebanon, causing a drop in optimism
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to allow more time for negotiations, temporarily boosting hopes for a lasting agreement
April 30 plunges to 41%22%
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to allow more time for negotiations, temporarily boosting hopes for a lasting agreement
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to give talks more time, but notes Iran’s “seriously fractured” government, creating mixed signals and a modest pull‑back
June 30 dips to 65%3%
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to give talks more time, but notes Iran’s “seriously fractured” government, creating mixed signals and a modest pull‑back
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to give Iran more time to present a unified proposal, but stresses the U.S.
June 30 dips to 61%4%
blockade will remain, tempering optimism
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to keep negotiations alive, restoring confidence and lifting odds back toward the mid‑60 % range
June 30 surges to 66%27%
Trump extends the cease‑fire indefinitely to keep negotiations alive, restoring confidence and lifting odds back toward the mid‑60 % range
President Trump says he will indefinitely extend the two‑week cease‑fire to give negotiators more time, removing the imminent deadline
June 30 drops to 58%8%
President Trump says he will indefinitely extend the two‑week cease‑fire to give negotiators more time, removing the imminent deadline
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the US will extend the cease‑fire until Iran submits a permanent‑peace proposal, removing the deadline pressure
May 31 dips to 62%2%
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the US will extend the cease‑fire until Iran submits a permanent‑peace proposal, removing the deadline pressure
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the US has “seen some progress” from Iran;
May 31 dips to 62%2%
however, Trump extends the naval blockade, prompting Iran to re‑impose restrictions
Iran publicly re‑opens the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Trump to claim “very positive discussions” with Tehran
Iran publicly re‑opens the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Trump to claim “very positive discussions” with Tehran
Trump announces that Iran will “completely open” the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting the cease‑fire is holding and a peace framework is near, pushing the market to its peak
June 30 drops to 68%14%
Trump announces that Iran will “completely open” the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting the cease‑fire is holding and a peace framework is near, pushing the market to its peak
Iran publicly re‑opens the Strait of Hormuz;
May 31 rises to 64%1%
Trump declares “peace talks are all but complete”
Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar says the United States and Iran are “very close to stitching a deal” and the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, sparking a surge in the market
April 30 surges to 63%30%
Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar says the United States and Iran are “very close to stitching a deal” and the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, sparking a surge in the market
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened, and Trump declares the cease‑fire “holding” and talks “very positive,” pushing the market to its April
June 30 dips to 65%3%
Iran’s foreign minister announces the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened, and Trump declares the cease‑fire “holding” and talks “very positive,” pushing the market to its April high
US announces a 10‑day Lebanon‑Israel truce and says Iran will allow commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the truce
May 31 jumps to 63%6%
US announces a 10‑day Lebanon‑Israel truce and says Iran will allow commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz during the truce
President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be “completely open” once a peace deal is signed, boosting confidence that negotiations are nearing a permanent settlement
June 30 drops to 68%14%
President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz will be “completely open” once a peace deal is signed, boosting confidence that negotiations are nearing a permanent settlement
President Trump publicly backs the cease‑fire and says the U.S.
June 30 jumps to 82%14%
will hold fire “until Iran presents a unified proposal,” raising expectations of a lasting deal
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly states that both sides are “very close” to a permanent agreement, lifting market optimism (inferred from the 29‑point swing Apr
June 30 jumps to 82%11%
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly states that both sides are “very close” to a permanent agreement, lifting market optimism (inferred from the 29‑point swing Apr 13 → Apr 15)
Trump announces a 10‑day Lebanon‑Israel truce and says Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the truce, but the US blockade continues
May 31 jumps to 63%6%
Trump announces a 10‑day Lebanon‑Israel truce and says Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the truce, but the US blockade continues
U.S. Vice President JD Vance publicly says Iran has shown “some flexibility” but the gap remains, prompting traders to
June 30 jumps to 77%8%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance publicly says Iran has shown “some flexibility” but the gap remains, prompting traders to
Reuters reports that the highest‑level U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad conclude without any breakthrough, leaving “dialogue still alive” but no agreement
Reuters reports that the highest‑level U.S.–Iran talks in Islamabad conclude without any breakthrough, leaving “dialogue still alive” but no agreement
President Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the failed Islamabad talks, further eroding confidence in a permanent peace
April 30 drops to 33%6%
President Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports after the failed Islamabad talks, further eroding confidence in a permanent peace
President Trump orders a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, raising fears the cease‑fire will collapse
June 30 dips to 71%2%
President Trump orders a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, raising fears the cease‑fire will collapse
U.S. President Donald Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports, effective April 13, after the Islamabad talks end without a deal
June 30 surges to 69%28%
U.S. President Donald Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports, effective April 13, after the Islamabad talks end without a deal
President Trump announces a U.S.
June 30 plunges to 39%42%
naval blockade of Iranian ports, contradicting the cease‑fire spirit and causing the market to retreat to ~39 % “Yes”
Trump announces US naval blockade of Iranian ports starting April 13
May 31 drops to 57%9%
The US blockade of Iranian ports raised tensions and cast doubt on the ceasefire’s durability, causing a market pullback despite ongoing talks.
President Trump imposes a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, targeting ships heading to or from Iran
May 31 surges to 57%30%
President Trump imposes a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, targeting ships heading to or from Iran
Direct talks in Islamabad collapse over disagreements on nuclear limits, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp drop in optimism
April 30 plunges to 39%22%
Direct talks in Islamabad collapse over disagreements on nuclear limits, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp drop in optimism
US Vice‑President JD Vance returns from Islamabad saying talks produced no agreement;
May 31 surges to 57%30%
Trump announces a naval blockade of Iranian ports
U.S. Vice‑President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for high‑level talks;
June 30 jumps to 73%6%
early reports suggest gaps remain, prompting market skepticism
US and Iranian delegations meet in Islamabad for peace talks; no agreement reached
May 31 surges to 60%20%
High-level talks involving US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials including Araghchi took place but ended without agreement, though market optimism rose on the prospect of ongoing dialogue.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrives in Islamabad for a second round of talks, but the delegation leaves without an agreement, dampening hopes for a quick settlement
June 30 drops to 68%5%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrives in Islamabad for a second round of talks, but the delegation leaves without an agreement, dampening hopes for a quick settlement
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff arrive in Islamabad for high‑level peace talks, raising expectations of a definitive agreement
June 30 jumps to 82%9%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff arrive in Islamabad for high‑level peace talks, raising expectations of a definitive agreement
U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks, signalling a high‑level push toward a permanent deal
April 30 surges to 61%30%
U.S. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks, signalling a high‑level push toward a permanent deal
U.S. Vice‑President JD Vance, envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for peace talks, signalling high‑level U.S.
June 30 jumps to 81%11%
engagement and pushing odds up further
US Vice‑President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for the first round of peace talks
May 31 drops to 27%10%
US Vice‑President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrive in Islamabad for the first round of peace talks
Pakistan invites both delegations to Islamabad for “conclusive” talks;
May 31 drops to 27%10%
Trump hails the move as “very close to stitching a deal”
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, with a promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 37%7%
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, with a promise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
US announces ceasefire with Iran but warns fighting may resume if no deal by April 15
May 31 dips to 40%4%
President Trump declared a ceasefire with Iran but threatened renewed hostilities if no agreement was reached by the ceasefire expiration, injecting cautious optimism but uncertainty into the market.
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire mediated by Pakistan, with the US tying the pause to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 37%7%
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire mediated by Pakistan, with the US tying the pause to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
United States and Iran agree to a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, raising hopes of a lasting settlement
April 30 jumps to 31%12%
United States and Iran agree to a two‑week cease‑fire, mediated by Pakistan, raising hopes of a lasting settlement
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire, with Pakistan mediating the first “Islamabad talks” and both sides pledging to work toward a lasting peace deal
June 30 surges to 73%32%
US and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire, with Pakistan mediating the first “Islamabad talks” and both sides pledging to work toward a lasting peace deal
U.S. and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire and say they will use the pause to negotiate a lasting peace deal
June 30 surges to 67%26%
U.S. and Iran announce a two‑week cease‑fire and say they will use the pause to negotiate a lasting peace deal
Iran and the United States announce a two‑week cease‑fire and Iran says the U.S.
June 30 surges to 73%32%
has accepted its 10‑point peace plan, sparking optimism that a permanent deal could follow
Iran and the United States announce a two‑week cease‑fire, with Iran saying the U.S.
June 30 surges to 70%29%
has accepted its 10‑point peace plan, sparking a jump in “Yes” odds to ~70 %
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Frequently Asked Questions