Ongoing military strikes and a fragile April ceasefire have shaped trader views on near-term US-Iran diplomacy, with fresh US actions in early June 2026 and Iran's June 1 suspension of talks over Israeli operations in Lebanon driving sharp swings in implied probabilities. Indirect and direct negotiations mediated by Oman and Pakistan since February have focused on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and related sanctions relief, producing draft proposals and extended conditional ceasefires even as Iranian officials cite limited tangible progress. Key participants including US Vice President JD Vance, special envoys, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf continue shuttle diplomacy, while recent reports of tentative deal wording and potential leader-level engagement remain the main near-term catalysts ahead of late-June deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTrump suggests Iran’s supreme leader conceptually supports settlement, signaling potential diplomatic progress
July 31 surges to 73%23%
Trump indicated that Iran’s supreme leader conceptually agreed to allow US to secure nuclear materials and stop pursuing nuclear weapons, briefly boosting market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by longer-term dates.
Trump announces 60-day ceasefire extension to enable final agreement negotiations
July 31 surges to 76%29%
On June 11, 2026, President Trump announced that a ceasefire for a further 60 days was reached, enabling the parties to negotiate all contentious issues for a final agreement. This announcement briefly boosted market optimism for diplomatic meetings by later dates, reflected in price increases for the July 31 outcome.
Trump states openness to meeting Iran’s supreme leader if agreement reached
July 31 surges to 75%26%
President Trump expressed willingness to meet Iran’s supreme leader if ongoing diplomatic efforts lead to an agreement, briefly supporting market optimism for a diplomatic meeting. However, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson denied any finalized agreement, maintaining uncertainty.
Iran says no final decision on any agreement, CNN reports
June 15 jumps to 17%12%
Live CNN coverage quoted Iranian officials saying no final decision had been made, reinforcing market scepticism and keeping the June 15 price low.
Iran rejects Trump’s proposal for meeting with Supreme Leader Khamenei
June 7 plunges to 0%19%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi publicly dismissed Trump's suggestion of a meeting with Iran’s Supreme Leader as unrealistic under current circumstances, dampening market confidence in an imminent diplomatic meeting and contributing to price declines for near-term dates.
Trump signals openness to meeting Iran’s Supreme Leader if deal is reached
July 31 dips to 86%1%
President Trump publicly stated he would be 'honored' to meet Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei if ongoing diplomatic efforts lead to an agreement, signaling potential for direct diplomacy but contingent on a deal. This statement briefly supported market optimism for a diplomatic meeting.
Iranian Revolutionary Guards launch missile strikes on US forces in Kuwait amid rising tensions
June 10 plunges to 3%20%
On June 3, 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps confirmed missile strikes on US forces in Kuwait in retaliation for previous US strikes. This escalation occurred amid suspended negotiations and contributed to market pessimism about near-term diplomatic meetings.
Iranian state media reports peace talks with US suspended but Trump insists they continue
June 7 dips to 0%3%
Iranian media reported that Iran halted negotiations with the US over Israel's conduct in Lebanon, while Trump insisted talks were ongoing. This conflicting information contributed to market uncertainty and further decline in confidence for imminent diplomatic meetings.
Both sides review latest US response, no meeting confirmed
Reports emerged that both sides were “reviewing the latest US response”, further confirming the absence of an in‑person meeting and keeping the June‑3 price at 0 %.
Iran suspends negotiations with US over Israeli military actions in Lebanon
June 3 plunges to 0%50%
On June 1, 2026, Iran suspended talks with the US in protest of Israeli military actions in Lebanon, as reported by Iranian state media. President Trump contradicted this claim, stating talks continued. This suspension led to a collapse in market confidence for near-term diplomatic meetings, pushing prices for June 3 and June 7 outcomes to near zero.
Iran suspends talks with US in protest of Israeli military actions in Lebanon
June 13 plunges to 14%27%
On June 1, 2026, Iranian state media reported that Iran suspended negotiations with the US due to Israeli military actions in Lebanon, while President Trump insisted talks were ongoing. This conflicting information led to a collapse in market confidence for near-term diplomatic meetings, pushing prices for June 13 and June 14 outcomes to near zero.
US and Iran exchange attacks despite ceasefire
June 10 plunges to 1%22%
Despite the ceasefire effective since April 8, US and Iran continued limited military exchanges in early June 2026, including drone strikes and retaliations, reflecting ongoing tensions and complicating diplomatic progress.
Iran suspends US-Iran negotiations citing Israeli actions in Lebanon
June 7 drops to 1%5%
Iran suspended talks with the US in protest of Israeli military actions, leading to increased market skepticism and a sharp decline in the probability of near-term diplomatic meetings.
US and Iran exchange attacks despite ceasefire amid ongoing talks
June 15 drops to 15%7%
Despite a ceasefire effective since April 8, US and Iran continued limited military exchanges in early June, reflecting ongoing tensions. This undermined confidence in imminent direct diplomatic meetings, contributing to further price declines for June meeting dates.
Iran suspends negotiations with US over Israeli military actions in Lebanon
June 10 plunges to 1%22%
On June 1, 2026, Iranian state media reported that Iran suspended negotiations with the US in protest of Israeli military actions in Lebanon. President Trump contradicted this claim, stating talks continued. The suspension led to a collapse in market confidence for near-term diplomatic meetings, pushing prices for June 3 and June 7 outcomes to near zero.
Iran suspends US-Iran negotiations citing Israeli actions in Lebanon
June 3 plunges to 0%50%
On June 1, 2026, Iran suspended negotiations with the US in protest of Israeli military actions in Lebanon, as reported by Iranian state media. This suspension caused a sharp drop in market confidence for diplomatic meetings by early June dates, reflecting increased uncertainty and stalled diplomacy.
Iran suspends negotiations with US citing Israeli military actions in Lebanon
June 7 plunges to 0%50%
Iranian state media reported that Iran suspended talks with the US in protest of Israeli military actions in Lebanon. President Trump contradicted this claim, stating talks continued. The suspension led to a collapse in market confidence for near-term diplomatic meetings, pushing prices for June 3 and June 7 outcomes to near zero.
Iran suspends US‑Iran talks citing Israeli strikes in Lebanon
June 3 dips to 0%2%
Iran announced suspension of negotiations, blaming Israeli actions in Lebanon. The market reacted with the sharpest decline for the June‑3 contract, which fell to 0 %.
Iran suspends talks with US in protest of Israeli military actions in Lebanon
June 7 plunges to 0%50%
On June 1, 2026, Iranian state media reported that Iran suspended negotiations with the US due to Israeli military actions in Lebanon, leading to a collapse in market confidence for near-term diplomatic meetings and pushing prices for June 3 and June 7 outcomes to near zero.
Rubio to meet Pakistani FM Dar to discuss US‑Iran peace efforts
June 15 jumps to 51%7%
Rubio’s scheduled meeting with Dar in Washington was reported as a step toward advancing the cease‑fire talks, briefly stabilising the June 15 odds before they fell again.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasizes need for clear diplomatic solution with Iran
Rubio's remarks underscored the US commitment to a diplomatic resolution contingent on clear negotiation terms, supporting market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by later dates.
President Trump ends White House meeting without announcing final decision on Iran deal
June 15 plunges to 17%16%
Trump ended a meeting without announcing a final determination on whether to approve the Iran deal, causing market skepticism about near-term diplomatic meetings and lowering prices for early June outcomes.
President Trump ends Iran meeting without announcing final decision on deal
June 30 plunges to 65%17%
On May 29, 2026, President Trump ended a White House meeting without announcing a final determination on whether to approve the Iran deal, maintaining uncertainty about the prospect of a direct diplomatic meeting in the near term. This caused market skepticism and price declines for early June meeting outcomes.
Trump ends White House meeting without final decision on Iran deal
June 30 drops to 52%8%
On May 29, President Trump concluded a White House meeting on the Iran deal without announcing a final determination, maintaining uncertainty about the prospect of a direct diplomatic meeting in the near term. This caused market skepticism for meetings by early June.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets Pakistani Foreign Minister to discuss peace efforts
July 31 rises to 80%4%
The meeting underscored Pakistan's key mediatory role in US-Iran peace talks, reinforcing diplomatic momentum and market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by July 31.
President Trump ends White House meeting without final decision on Iran deal
June 7 plunges to 0%50%
President Trump ended a White House meeting without announcing a final determination on whether to approve the Iran deal, maintaining uncertainty about the prospect of a direct diplomatic meeting in the near term and causing market skepticism for early June meeting dates.
President Trump ends White House meeting without final decision on Iran deal
June 3 plunges to 2%18%
President Trump ended a meeting without announcing a final determination on whether to approve the Iran deal, maintaining uncertainty about the prospect of a direct diplomatic meeting in the near term and causing market skepticism for early June meeting dates.
Trump concludes Situation Room meeting on Iran without announcing decision
President Trump held a two-hour meeting with aides to decide on moving forward with an Iran deal but did not announce a decision, indicating ongoing deliberations without a confirmed direct diplomatic meeting.
Pakistani Foreign Minister meets US Secretary of State to discuss peace efforts
Pakistan's Foreign Minister met with US Secretary of State to discuss regional developments and peace promotion efforts, highlighting ongoing mediation and indirect diplomacy.
President Trump ends meeting without final decision on Iran deal
July 31 drops to 85%6%
On May 29, 2026, President Trump ended a White House meeting without announcing a final determination on whether to approve the Iran deal, maintaining uncertainty about the prospect of a direct diplomatic meeting in the near term.
US and Iran announce tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
July 31 jumps to 89%13%
US officials announced a tentative agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and set the stage for nuclear negotiations, though President Trump had not yet approved it. This raised hopes for diplomatic meetings, causing a temporary price increase for the July 31 outcome.
Tentative US‑Iran memorandum to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
July 31 jumps to 94%10%
A tentative memorandum to extend the ceasefire and start nuclear negotiations was announced, pushing the July 31 odds to their peak and lifting the June 30 odds temporarily.
US officials announce tentative memorandum of understanding with Iran to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
July 31 rises to 87%3%
On May 28, 2026, US officials announced a tentative memorandum of understanding with Iran to extend the ceasefire and initiate nuclear negotiations, though President Trump had not yet approved it. This caused market fluctuations and uncertainty about near-term diplomatic meetings.
US and Iran reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
July 31 jumps to 86%12%
On May 28, US officials announced a tentative memorandum of understanding with Iran to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, though President Trump had not yet approved it. This development raised market optimism for diplomatic progress.
Tentative US‑Iran agreement reached, Strait of Hormuz to reopen
June 10 drops to 13%10%
A tentative agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and begin nuclear talks was reported on 28 May, giving the market a brief boost for the June‑10 and June‑7 contracts before later setbacks.
US and Iranian negotiators reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
July 31 jumps to 86%12%
On May 28, 2026, US and Iranian negotiators reportedly reached a tentative memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, though President Trump had yet to give final approval. This development increased optimism for diplomatic meetings by later dates.
Tentative US-Iran agreement reached but President Trump has not signed off
July 31 rises to 78%4%
On May 28, 2026, US officials announced a tentative memorandum of understanding with Iran to extend the ceasefire and set the stage for nuclear talks, though President Trump had not yet approved it. This development maintained cautious market optimism but uncertainty remained about a direct diplomatic meeting soon.
Tentative agreement reached between US and Iran, but Trump has not signed off
June 30 jumps to 76%14%
On May 28, US officials announced a tentative agreement with Iran covering ceasefire extension and nuclear issues, but President Trump had not approved it, maintaining uncertainty and causing mixed market reactions.
US and Iran reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire
June 30 drops to 68%5%
US and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin nuclear negotiations. However, President Trump had not yet approved the deal, causing market fluctuations and uncertainty about near-term diplomatic meetings.
US officials announce tentative memorandum of understanding with Iran to extend ceasefire and set stage for nuclear talks
June 30 drops to 62%6%
On May 28, 2026, US officials announced a tentative memorandum of understanding with Iran to extend the ceasefire and initiate nuclear discussions, though President Trump had not yet approved it. This development caused mixed market reactions and uncertainty about near-term diplomatic meetings, contributing to price fluctuations.
US and Iran reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and set stage for nuclear talks
US officials announced a tentative agreement with Iran to extend the ceasefire and initiate nuclear discussions, though President Trump had not yet approved it. This development caused mixed market reactions and uncertainty about near-term diplomatic meetings.
Tentative US-Iran agreement reached but not yet finalized or signed by Trump
May 31 drops to 5%9%
US officials announced a tentative agreement in talks with Iran, though President Trump had not signed off and tensions remained, causing mixed market reactions and low confidence in near-term meetings by May 28 and May 31.
US and Iran announce tentative MOU to extend cease‑fire and start nuclear talks
June 30 surges to 86%22%
Announcement of a tentative MOU to extend the cease‑fire and start nuclear talks was reported, momentarily boosting the June 30 and June 21 odds before the lack of presidential sign‑off caused a reversal the next day.
Trump holds Situation Room meeting to decide on Iran ceasefire proposal
President Trump met with US negotiators to make a final determination on whether to move forward with a deal to extend the ceasefire and advance nuclear negotiations, reflecting ongoing high-level deliberations but no confirmed direct meeting with Iran.
US President Trump holds Situation Room meeting on tentative Iran deal
June 30 drops to 66%13%
Trump's meeting to make a final determination on a tentative Iran deal indicated high-level US deliberations, with the deal pending presidential sign-off, causing market uncertainty and price fluctuations for near-term meeting dates.
President Trump signals preference for diplomatic solution but warns on Iran
July 31 dips to 86%1%
On May 27, President Trump expressed preference for a diplomatic solution with Iran but warned against allowing Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, reflecting ongoing high-level US engagement without confirmed in-person meetings, contributing to market uncertainty.
Tentative US-Iran agreement reached but awaiting President Trump's sign-off
July 31 rises to 89%2%
US officials announced a tentative agreement with Iran that could extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but President Trump had not yet signed off, causing cautious optimism in the market.
President Trump holds cabinet meeting to discuss Iran deal progress
July 31 dips to 83%3%
Trump's cabinet meeting to discuss the Iran deal indicated ongoing deliberations without a confirmed direct diplomatic meeting, contributing to market uncertainty and mixed confidence in near-term outcomes.
President Trump meets with national security officials on Iran strategy
July 31 rises to 88%3%
Trump’s meeting with top US security officials to weigh next steps on Iran reflected ongoing diplomatic efforts and uncertainty, influencing market prices for meetings by late June and July.
White House affirms US-Iran talks remain on track despite drone incident
Despite a US fighter jet shooting down an Iranian drone near an American carrier, the White House confirmed that planned diplomatic talks between US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remain scheduled, reflecting ongoing commitment to diplomacy amid tensions.
Iranian delegation meets senior Qatari officials to discuss ongoing negotiations
July 31 rises to 87%1%
Iran’s parliamentary speaker and other officials met with Qatari counterparts to discuss key negotiation points including uranium stockpiles and frozen assets, sustaining market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by July 31.
Iranian delegation meets Qatari officials to discuss negotiations including uranium stockpile
July 31 dips to 86%3%
Iranian parliamentary speaker led a delegation to Qatar to discuss key negotiation points such as Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile and access to frozen assets, reflecting ongoing complex talks affecting market confidence.
US officials express concerns over Iran's nuclear commitments
May 31 drops to 16%11%
US mediators indicated that Iran had not publicly committed to halting uranium enrichment, causing uncertainty and contributing to declines in market confidence for diplomatic meetings by May 31 and June 3.
US seeks firm upfront nuclear commitments amid ongoing negotiations with Iran
June 30 dips to 79%4%
US officials reportedly offered sanctions relief in exchange for Iran handing over highly enriched uranium, but Iran sought clearer guarantees, reflecting ongoing negotiation challenges and contributing to market uncertainty.
Middle Eastern officials urge Trump to accept latest peace proposal
July 31 rises to 87%1%
Middle Eastern officials reportedly urged President Trump to accept the latest peace proposal to end the Iran war, reinforcing market confidence in a diplomatic meeting by June 30 and July 31.
Iranian delegation meets Qatari officials to discuss negotiations and frozen assets
June 30 jumps to 72%7%
On May 25, 2026, an Iranian delegation led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met senior Qatari officials to discuss ongoing negotiations, including Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile and access to frozen assets. This meeting was seen as evidence of continued diplomatic efforts, briefly lifting market optimism.
US imposes new sanctions on Iranian nuclear research
The US imposed new sanctions targeting Iranian nuclear research with possible military applications, adding complexity to negotiations and affecting market confidence.
Iranian delegation meets Qatari officials to discuss negotiations
June 15 surges to 69%26%
Iran's parliamentary speaker led a delegation to Doha to discuss key negotiation issues including uranium stockpiles and access to frozen assets, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement but unresolved issues, which tempered market confidence for earlier meeting dates.
US and Iran meet to finalize draft peace deal
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and Central Bank Governor Abdol Nasser Hemmati met with Qatari officials in Doha to discuss negotiations, including Iran's HEU stockpile and access to frozen assets, signaling continued diplomatic efforts.
Iran delegation meets Qatari officials to discuss negotiations including nuclear stockpile and frozen assets
July 31 drops to 85%6%
Iran's delegation led by Parliament Speaker met with Qatari officials to discuss key negotiation points, reflecting ongoing indirect talks and sustaining market optimism for later meetings.
Senior Iranian officials arrive in Qatar for peace talks with US
July 31 drops to 81%9%
On May 25, a delegation of senior Iranian officials traveled to Qatar for talks aimed at ending the war with the United States, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement but no confirmed in-person US-Iran meeting yet, causing mixed market reactions.
Trump confirms near-agreement but urges patience on peace deal
July 31 drops to 83%11%
President Trump stated that the peace deal with Iran had been largely negotiated but emphasized he was not in a rush to finalize it, reflecting cautious optimism and causing some market volatility.
US and Iran near broader peace agreement, Trump says deal close to finalization
July 31 surges to 91%41%
On May 24, 2026, reports indicated the US and Iran were close to a peace agreement after months of stalled negotiations. President Trump stated a memorandum of understanding was near finalization, boosting market confidence for meetings by late June and July.
US and Iran nearing peace agreement after ceasefire talks
July 31 surges to 87%37%
Following a call with Gulf and other regional leaders, President Trump stated the group discussed all things concerning Iran and related to the memorandum of understanding pertaining to peace, indicating progress toward finalizing a draft peace deal.
Reports indicate US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement
June 30 jumps to 79%5%
On May 24, reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to finalizing a broader peace agreement following months of conflict and stalled negotiations, reinforcing market optimism and sustaining high prices for diplomatic meeting outcomes by late June and July.
Trump confirms near-agreement on Iran peace deal, market peaks
July 31 jumps to 89%13%
President Trump announced he would meet with US negotiators to review Iran's ceasefire proposal and decide on military action by May 24, confirming a near-agreement and causing the market to peak at 89% for July 31 and 81% for June 30.
US and Iran near broader peace agreement, in-person signing expected
June 30 surges to 86%23%
Reports on May 24 indicated that the US and Iran were nearing a broader peace agreement with an in-person signing ceremony expected, which increased market optimism significantly for diplomatic meetings by June 30 and July 31.
US and Iran still negotiating peace deal terms, in-person signing expected
July 31 surges to 91%17%
Reports indicated that once all sides agree, an in-person signing ceremony between US and Iranian officials would take place, raising market optimism for meetings by July 31.
Trump states Iran peace deal 'largely negotiated' but not rushed
June 30 dips to 78%4%
President Trump said the peace deal with Iran was largely negotiated and details would be announced shortly, but he was not rushing to finalize it, sustaining high market optimism for meetings by June 30 and July 31.
President Trump states peace deal with Iran largely negotiated but not rushed
July 31 drops to 81%9%
Trump’s statement of cautious optimism about a largely negotiated peace deal caused market peaks and subsequent corrections as final details remained unresolved.
Reports indicate US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement after months of conflict
July 31 jumps to 92%6%
Reports of nearing a broader peace agreement following months of conflict and stalled negotiations further supported market optimism for diplomatic meetings by July 31.
US and Iran continue negotiating peace deal terms with in-person signing expected
July 31 rises to 89%2%
Reports indicated ongoing negotiations with a potential in-person signing ceremony between US and Iranian officials, raising hopes for diplomatic meetings and positively impacting market prices for longer-term outcomes.
President Trump states Iran deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz is 'largely negotiated'
Trump's statement suggested progress in negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily boosting market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by later dates.
US and Iran near finalizing draft peace deal, Trump to decide on military action
July 31 surges to 75%25%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to finalizing a draft peace deal, with President Trump stating he would decide imminently whether to resume strikes or accept the deal. This caused a sharp rise in market optimism for meetings by June 30 and July 31.
Trump says Iran deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz 'largely negotiated'
July 31 surges to 81%31%
President Trump stated that negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz had largely been completed, signaling significant progress in talks and boosting market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates.
US President Trump to decide on Iran ceasefire proposal by May 24
June 30 surges to 82%28%
President Trump announced he would meet with US negotiators to review Iran's ceasefire proposal and decide imminently on military action or diplomacy, creating high market volatility and optimism for meetings by June 30 and July 31.
Trump announces he will decide on Iran ceasefire proposal by May 24
July 31 surges to 89%39%
President Trump declared he would meet with US negotiators to review Iran's ceasefire proposal and decide on military action by May 24, confirming a near-agreement and causing market confidence to peak sharply.
Trump says US and Iran have 'largely negotiated' peace deal
July 31 surges to 87%37%
President Trump announced that the United States and Iran had 'largely negotiated' an agreement, significantly boosting market confidence for a diplomatic meeting by June 30 and July 31.
US Secretary of State Rubio expresses cautious optimism on Iran talks
June 30 surges to 88%35%
Rubio’s comments about progress and potential news on Iran negotiations contributed to market gains, reflecting hope for a diplomatic breakthrough by June 30 and July 31.
Trump says Iran and US have 'largely negotiated' peace agreement
Trump's announcement confirmed near-agreement, causing the market to peak at 89% and settle at 86% by May 24.
US and Iran expected to announce draft peace deal within 24 hours
June 30 surges to 82%18%
Sources close to negotiations indicated that the US and Iran would finalize a draft peace deal to end fighting by May 24, raising market confidence sharply for diplomatic meetings by June 30 and July 31. This news was a critical driver of price increases in late May.
Trump to decide on Iran ceasefire proposal after meeting US negotiators
June 30 surges to 82%18%
President Trump announced he would meet with US negotiators to review Iran’s ceasefire proposal and decide on military action by May 24, reflecting high stakes in diplomatic talks. This announcement increased market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by June 30 and July 31.
US and Iran expected to announce draft peace deal within 24 hours
July 31 surges to 90%32%
Sources close to negotiations indicated that the US and Iran would finalize a draft peace deal to end fighting by May 24, boosting market confidence sharply for diplomatic meetings by June 30 and July 31.
Trump to decide by May 24 on resuming strikes or accepting Iran deal
July 31 jumps to 92%6%
Trump stated he would decide imminently whether to resume military strikes or accept a diplomatic deal, reflecting uncertainty but also the possibility of a breakthrough, influencing market prices upward for July 31 and June 30.
President Trump announces US-Iran agreement largely negotiated
July 31 surges to 75%25%
President Trump stated that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, boosting market optimism significantly for diplomatic meetings by June 30 and July 31, with prices peaking near 89%.
Iran hosts Pakistani delegation to mediate US-Iran peace talks
July 31 surges to 75%25%
On May 23, Pakistan's army chief visited Tehran to mediate between the US and Iran, reflecting active third-party diplomatic efforts to prevent renewed hostilities and advance peace talks, boosting market prices for later meeting dates.
President Trump to decide on Iran strike after reviewing ceasefire proposal
July 31 surges to 89%15%
Trump’s announcement to meet with US negotiators to review Iran’s ceasefire proposal and decide on military action heightened market volatility and optimism for a diplomatic meeting by July 31.
Trump says peace deal with Iran 'largely negotiated' ahead of decision
July 31 surges to 75%25%
President Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran had been largely negotiated and he would decide by May 24 whether to resume strikes, boosting market confidence in a diplomatic meeting by later dates.
President Trump says US-Iran agreement largely negotiated
July 31 jumps to 82%8%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump stated that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks and boosting market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates.
US and Iranian officials report progress in last-ditch diplomatic efforts amid ceasefire uncertainty
June 30 jumps to 73%11%
Officials from both sides indicated progress in diplomatic efforts to avoid renewed conflict, with positions reportedly moving closer, which supported market optimism for meetings by June 30 and beyond.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker meets Pakistani Army Chief in Tehran amid renewed diplomatic efforts
July 31 surges to 75%25%
High-level meetings in Tehran involving Iran’s parliamentary speaker and Pakistan’s army chief signaled active mediation efforts, supporting market gains for meetings by June 30 and July 31.
Iran and US officials signal progress on ceasefire and memorandum of understanding
July 31 surges to 87%27%
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman announced final stages of drafting a memorandum of understanding focusing on ending the war, pushing nuclear discussions to later stages, which increased market optimism for diplomatic meetings.
Iran and US officials signal progress on ceasefire and draft memorandum of understanding
Iranian and US officials indicated nearing a final draft of a memorandum of understanding focused on ending the war, with nuclear issues deferred, raising hopes for diplomatic progress though no direct meeting was confirmed.
Trump states Iran deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz 'largely negotiated'
Trump's statement about a largely negotiated deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz raised market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by July 31, reflecting progress in negotiations despite ongoing tensions.
President Trump announces near-finalized agreement with Iran and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
July 31 surges to 74%24%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump stated that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, boosting market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates due to perceived progress in talks.
Trump says Iran deal largely negotiated, Strait of Hormuz to reopen
July 31 surges to 94%15%
Trump posted that a memorandum with Iran was "largely negotiated" and the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. The news triggered the strongest price surge for the July‑31 contract, pushing odds toward two‑thirds.
President Trump states agreement with Iran largely negotiated, Strait of Hormuz to reopen
July 31 surges to 80%30%
Trump's statement about progress in talks and reopening the Strait of Hormuz increased optimism for a diplomatic meeting, reflected in rising market prices for the July 31 outcome.
President Trump announces progress in talks and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
July 31 surges to 74%24%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump stated that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks. This boosted market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates, causing a rise in prices for July 31 and June 30 outcomes.
President Trump states Iran agreement largely negotiated and Strait of Hormuz to reopen
July 31 surges to 74%24%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks. This boosted market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates such as June 30 and July 31.
Trump announces memorandum of understanding largely negotiated with Iran
July 31 surges to 74%24%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump stated that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran was largely negotiated, including provisions to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement, supported by reports of positive progress and regional support, temporarily boosted market confidence for diplomatic meetings by late July.
President Trump announces Iran agreement largely negotiated and Strait of Hormuz to reopen
July 31 surges to 74%24%
President Trump publicly stated that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks. This announcement boosted market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates.
Reports of progress in US-Iran talks and potential framework agreement
July 31 jumps to 89%14%
Officials from both sides indicated progress in diplomatic efforts to avoid renewed war, with regional leaders supportive and talks moving closer to a framework agreement, boosting market confidence for longer-term diplomatic meetings.
President Trump announces agreement with Iran largely negotiated, Strait of Hormuz to reopen
July 31 surges to 74%24%
President Trump stated that a significant agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling progress in talks and boosting market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates such as June 30 and July 31.
US President Trump announces near-finalized agreement with Iran and Strait of Hormuz reopening
July 31 surges to 94%44%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant diplomatic progress and boosting market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates.
President Trump announces largely negotiated agreement with Iran and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
July 31 surges to 74%24%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump stated that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. This announcement significantly boosted market confidence in a diplomatic meeting by later dates, reflected in price increases for July 31 and June 30 outcomes.
Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visits Tehran amid intensified diplomatic efforts
July 31 surges to 79%23%
Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir visited Tehran to meet senior Iranian officials, supporting ongoing mediation efforts to ease US-Iran tensions and raising hopes for a diplomatic meeting, which increased market optimism for meetings by late June and July.
Trump announces agreement with Iran largely negotiated, Strait of Hormuz to reopen
July 31 surges to 74%24%
President Trump stated that a memorandum of understanding with Iran was close to finalization, signaling significant progress in negotiations and boosting market optimism for diplomatic meetings by later dates. This announcement raised expectations for a diplomatic breakthrough and a framework to end hostilities.
Trump says agreement with Iran largely negotiated; Strait of Hormuz to reopen
July 31 surges to 74%24%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump indicated that a framework agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, with regional leaders supportive and progress being made. This raised market optimism for diplomatic meetings by late June and July, causing temporary price increases.
President Trump announces Iran deal largely negotiated and Strait of Hormuz reopening
July 31 surges to 74%24%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks and boosting market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates.
President Trump announces agreement with Iran largely negotiated
June 30 jumps to 75%13%
President Trump stated that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant diplomatic progress. This announcement boosted market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates such as June 30 and July 31.
President Trump announces progress on Iran agreement and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
July 31 surges to 74%24%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks. This announcement boosted market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates, reflected in price increases.
Rubio says framework talks with Iran are very positive
July 31 surges to 86%26%
US Secretary of State Rubio reported progress in a framework discussion and quoted a regional diplomat saying the talks were “very positive,” which lifted longer‑term odds (July 31) and caused a price spike on May 24‑25.
President Trump meets with US national security officials on Iran strategy
June 30 jumps to 69%5%
President Trump met with top US national security officials to discuss next steps on Iran amid ongoing diplomatic efforts, signaling high-level engagement and weighing military versus diplomatic options.
US Secretary of State Rubio reports slight progress in Iran talks amid ongoing uncertainty
July 31 rises to 79%2%
Secretary Rubio acknowledged slight progress in negotiations with Iran but emphasized unresolved issues, maintaining cautious market optimism for future diplomatic meetings beyond May.
Pakistan seeks breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks amid persistent obstacles
June 30 drops to 56%7%
Pakistani diplomatic efforts aimed at advancing US-Iran peace talks continued, but key issues like uranium enrichment and Strait of Hormuz control remained unresolved, limiting prospects for an imminent in-person meeting.
President Trump meets national security officials on Iran war
President Trump held a meeting with top US national security officials to discuss next steps on the Iran conflict amid ongoing diplomatic efforts, reflecting the administration's preference for a negotiated solution.
President Trump meets with national security officials to discuss Iran
Trump's meeting with top US national security officials underscored ongoing deliberations on Iran policy amid diplomatic efforts, reflecting continued uncertainty and contributing to mixed market reactions across meeting date outcomes.
US Secretary of State reports 'slight progress' in talks with Iran
Marco Rubio's statement of slight progress in negotiations indicated ongoing but limited diplomatic movement, maintaining cautious market optimism for a meeting by later dates while dampening near-term expectations.
Iran and US narrow gaps but key issues remain in talks
June 15 drops to 33%9%
Both sides reported narrowing differences, but uranium enrichment and Strait of Hormuz control remained major obstacles. This tempered market optimism, causing price declines for near-term meeting outcomes.
US envoy team led by Vice President JD Vance arrives in Islamabad for indirect talks with Iran
June 30 surges to 80%23%
The arrival of a high-level US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance in Islamabad for indirect talks with Iran raised market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by June 30 and July 31. The talks were seen as a critical step toward possible face-to-face engagement despite ongoing tensions.
Trump meets with national security officials to weigh Iran options
June 30 surges to 82%18%
President Trump met with top US national security officials to discuss next steps on Iran amid ongoing diplomatic efforts, signaling serious consideration of both diplomatic and military options. This meeting contributed to market volatility and cautious optimism for a diplomatic meeting by June 30 and July 31.
Pakistan's military chief visits Tehran for consultations amid diplomatic efforts
June 30 surges to 79%17%
Field Marshal Asim Munir's visit to Tehran signaled an intensification of diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, though Iranian officials cautioned that no decisive breakthrough had yet been reached. This visit briefly supported market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by late June.
President Trump meets with national security officials to weigh Iran strategy
June 15 surges to 50%17%
Trump's meeting with top US national security officials to discuss next steps on Iran signaled ongoing high-level engagement and potential for diplomatic progress, supporting rising market prices for meetings by June 15 and June 30.
Pakistan's military chief visits Tehran for consultations
June 21 drops to 36%6%
Field Marshal Asim Munir's visit to Tehran on May 22 signaled intensified diplomatic efforts and consultations between Pakistan and Iran, raising hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations. However, Iranian officials tempered expectations, indicating no decisive breakthrough yet, causing mixed market reactions.
US Secretary of State Rubio reports 'slight progress' in Iran talks amid uncertainty
May 22 plunges to 0%50%
Marco Rubio publicly stated there was slight progress in talks with Iran but uncertainty remained about a deal or renewed conflict. This tempered market expectations, especially for the earliest meeting date of May 22, which dropped to zero probability.
Pakistan mediates ongoing US-Iran peace talks amid regional tensions
July 31 surges to 78%28%
In late May, Pakistani officials including Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi engaged with Iranian counterparts to facilitate peace talks. Iran reviewed US peace proposals conveyed via Pakistan, signaling continued indirect diplomacy. This sustained market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by late June and July.
US-Iran diplomacy picks up with back-channel visits to Iran
July 31 jumps to 83%9%
Reports indicated increased diplomatic efforts with Pakistani mediator Naqvi visiting Iran twice in less than a week, signaling ongoing indirect negotiations despite no confirmed direct meetings. This contributed to some market optimism for longer-term meeting dates.
Pakistani Interior Minister visits Tehran to advance peace talks
July 31 surges to 75%25%
Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s visit to Tehran signaled renewed diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, supporting market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by late June and July.
Pakistani Interior Minister visits Iran for diplomatic talks
June 30 rises to 68%1%
Mohsin Naqvi's visit to Tehran for meetings with Iranian officials indicated renewed diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, raising market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by June 30 and July 31.
Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visits Tehran for diplomatic talks
Naqvi's visit to Iran, the second in less than a week, indicated active mediation efforts and ongoing indirect talks between the US and Iran, briefly boosting market optimism for meetings by June 30 and May 31.
Pakistani mediators intensify efforts to broker US-Iran peace deal
June 30 rises to 69%4%
Reports of Pakistani officials visiting Iran and engaging with US and Iranian representatives signaled active mediation efforts, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough. This contributed to market optimism for meetings by June 30 and later dates.
Iran and Oman discuss permanent toll system for Strait of Hormuz
June 30 drops to 54%7%
Iranian officials confirmed discussions with Oman about formalizing control over maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major sticking point in US-Iran negotiations. US Secretary of State Rubio reiterated that such a toll system would threaten any diplomatic agreement, sustaining market doubts about near-term direct meetings.
US-Iran diplomacy picks up with multiple visits and talks
June 30 jumps to 63%6%
In mid-May, diplomatic efforts intensified with visits by US officials to Iran and meetings between representatives, signaling renewed attempts to resolve the conflict diplomatically, which increased market confidence for meetings by June 30 and July 31.
Pakistan's Army Chief leads mediation efforts between US and Iran
June 30 jumps to 76%13%
Pakistan emerged as a key mediator with its Army Chief Asim Munir leading efforts to relay peace proposals between the US and Iran, signaling renewed diplomatic momentum and increasing market confidence for meetings by June 30 and July 31.
Intensified US-Iran diplomacy with regional intermediaries amid fears of escalation
June 30 jumps to 72%10%
Diplomatic efforts involving the US, Iran, Gulf nations, Pakistan, and regional intermediaries increased, with President Trump discussing the situation with Middle East leaders, boosting market confidence for meetings by June 30 and July 31.
Pakistani Interior Minister visits Tehran for US-Iran diplomatic talks
June 15 surges to 52%19%
Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visited Tehran to meet Iranian officials, signaling intensified diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Israel war on Iran. This visit raised market confidence in a diplomatic meeting by June 15 and June 30.
Trump holds calls with regional leaders on Iran diplomatic progress
June 30 surges to 82%18%
President Trump engaged in phone calls with Middle East leaders discussing Iran, with reports of good progress and regional support for diplomatic breakthroughs. This boosted market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by June 30 and July 31.
Pakistani Interior Minister visits Tehran for talks with Iranian officials
June 30 jumps to 69%5%
Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visited Tehran for meetings with senior Iranian officials, indicating renewed diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Israeli war on Iran and keep peace talks alive.
Pakistan's army chief visits Iran amid intensified diplomatic efforts
July 31 jumps to 79%14%
Pakistan's army chief Asim Munir visited Tehran to support ongoing diplomatic efforts, signaling regional mediation attempts to break the US-Iran deadlock. This raised hopes for a diplomatic meeting, temporarily increasing market prices for later resolution dates.
Pakistan's diplomatic visits signal renewed US-Iran dialogue efforts
July 31 surges to 66%16%
In May 2026, Pakistani diplomatic visits to Tehran and ongoing mediation efforts by Qatar and Pakistan indicated continued indirect negotiations between the US and Iran, sustaining some market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by later dates.
Pakistan's diplomatic visits to Tehran signal renewed mediation efforts
June 30 rises to 64%4%
Pakistani diplomatic visits to Tehran in May indicated ongoing mediation efforts to facilitate US-Iran talks, sustaining some market hope for a diplomatic meeting despite overall declining probabilities.
US President Trump willing to wait for Iran's response on peace proposal
July 31 jumps to 80%6%
President Trump stated readiness to wait a few more days for Tehran's answers on a peace proposal, indicating ongoing but uncertain diplomatic engagement. This statement temporarily buoyed market confidence for longer-term meeting possibilities.
Pakistani official visits Tehran amid renewed diplomatic efforts
July 31 jumps to 56%6%
Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi's visit to Tehran for meetings with Iranian officials signaled ongoing regional mediation efforts, supporting continued dialogue though no direct US-Iran meeting was confirmed, influencing market sentiment positively for later meeting dates.
Renewed diplomatic efforts signaled by Pakistani official's visit to Iran
July 31 surges to 67%17%
In May 2026, Pakistani officials made multiple visits to Iran, signaling renewed diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict and raising market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by July 31.
Pakistani delegation visits Tehran to advance US-Iran diplomacy
June 30 rises to 67%4%
Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visited Tehran for meetings with Iranian officials, indicating intensified diplomatic efforts to resolve the US-Israel war on Iran and maintain the ceasefire.
Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visits Tehran for mediation talks
June 30 jumps to 68%8%
Naqvi's visit to Iran, his second in less than a week, signaled active mediation efforts and ongoing indirect talks between the US and Iran, supporting market optimism for diplomatic meetings by June 30.
President Trump signals willingness to wait for Iran's response amid ongoing peace talks
June 30 jumps to 60%5%
Trump's statement about waiting a few more days for Tehran's answers raised hopes for diplomatic progress, briefly increasing market confidence in meetings by June 30 and July 31.
Trump calls for direct talks with China’s Xi on Iran, but no in‑person meeting scheduled
While high‑level talks were discussed, the lack of a concrete U.S.–Iran summit plan reinforced market belief that no meeting would occur before the deadline.
U.S. opts for phone talks over sending envoys to Islamabad
June 30 dips to 62%4%
Trump announced the United States would discuss the Iran issue by phone rather than dispatching diplomatic teams, further reducing confidence that an in‑person meeting would happen before the month’s end.
U.S. Central Command chief joins indirect Iran talks in Oman
July 31 dips to 74%1%
U.S. Central Command commander Brad Cooper attended indirect negotiations with Iranian officials in Oman, signaling a possible diplomatic breakthrough and boosting confidence that a US‑Iran meeting could occur soon.
US and Iran remain at odds on key issues but report signs of progress
June 30 drops to 54%11%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged some good signs in talks but warned that Iran's plans to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz would make a diplomatic deal unfeasible. This maintained market uncertainty and contributed to price volatility.
US Secretary of State Rubio reports slight progress in Iran talks
July 31 surges to 74%24%
Secretary Rubio stated that talks showed slight progress but emphasized that Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons, maintaining cautious optimism. This contributed to market fluctuations for the June 15 and July 31 outcomes.
Pakistani Interior Minister visits Tehran for talks amid US-Iran conflict
June 30 jumps to 66%5%
Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visited Tehran for meetings with Iranian officials, signaling ongoing regional diplomatic efforts though no direct US-Iran meeting was confirmed. This raised hopes for diplomacy but did not translate into immediate US-Iran talks, influencing market prices for mid-June and later outcomes.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fires on ships in Hormuz, tightening blockade
May 22 plunges to 1%49%
Escalation in the strategic waterway heightened tensions and made a diplomatic meeting less likely, pushing the May‑22 odds toward zero.
US‑Iran cease‑fire expires, no in‑person meeting reported
June 30 rises to 56%3%
With the cease‑fire deadline passing without a reported US‑Iran diplomatic meeting, market confidence collapsed, bringing the June‑30 price to its endpoint of 56% and the May‑31 price to 15%.
Iran says U.S. maximalist demands stall face‑to‑face talks in Turkey
June 15 plunges to 28%22%
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh warned that U.S. “maximalist” conditions were preventing a direct meeting, reinforcing market sentiment that a near‑term diplomatic encounter was unlikely.
Iranian lawmakers urge secrecy amid diplomatic efforts to break deadlock with US
May 31 drops to 14%14%
Calls within Iran for secrecy on nuclear and Strait of Hormuz positions reflected internal divisions and complicated diplomatic progress, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines for near-term meeting outcomes.
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
May 31 plunges to 22%33%
Trump publicly said he was “not satisfied” with Iran’s plan to end the war, signaling that no diplomatic breakthrough was imminent and pushing down the odds of a meeting before the end of May.
Negotiations over reopening Strait of Hormuz largely stalled
Negotiations between the US and Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz stalled as both sides rejected proposals, contributing to market uncertainty and dampening near-term meeting probabilities.
Iran’s army chief warns of pre‑emptive attack after US rhetoric
Maj. Gen. Amir Hatami’s threat of a pre‑emptive strike heightened the risk of escalation, pulling the May 31 price down to 25% and the June 30 price to 55% as traders priced in a lower chance of a diplomatic meeting.
US announces “Project Freedom” to guide ships through Hormuz, then pauses it
June 30 dips to 55%4%
The launch of Project Freedom briefly raised hopes of de‑escalation, lifting the June‑30 price to 55% before the pause caused a decline to 53%; the May‑31 price fell to 23% as market sentiment soured.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end the war
May 31 dips to 24%4%
President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Iran’s latest peace proposal, blaming Iran’s fractured leadership and signaling continued stalemate, which contributed to further decline in market expectations for a diplomatic meeting by May 31.
Iranian army chief threatens pre‑emptive attack over U.S. rhetoric
May 31 drops to 14%8%
Maj. Gen. Amir Hatami warned of a pre‑emptive strike if the United States continued its harsh statements, heightening tensions and reducing market confidence that a diplomatic meeting would happen.
Trump extends ceasefire but maintains naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 15 drops to 0%14%
While the ceasefire extension offered a glimmer of hope, the continued U.S. blockade signaled that substantive diplomatic engagement, especially a high‑level meeting, remained unlikely, pushing the May 15 outcome to zero.
U.S. Central Command commander joins indirect Iran talks in Oman
July 31 surges to 78%28%
Adm. Brad Cooper attended a diplomatic session in Muscat, marking the first time a senior U.S. military leader directly engaged Iran in person, which traders interpreted as a step toward a formal meeting.
Iranian human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh detained amid crackdown
May 31 dips to 24%4%
The detention of prominent Iranian human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh amid intensified government crackdown signaled internal instability and repression, undermining prospects for diplomatic engagement with the US. This contributed to market pessimism for a diplomatic meeting by May 31.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on vessels
May 22 plunges to 5%45%
Iran’s aggressive action heightened tensions and made a diplomatic meeting seem unlikely, causing the May‑22 outcome to plunge to near‑zero.
U.S. blocks further envoy travel to Islamabad, citing lack of progress
May 31 plunges to 14%35%
The cancellation of a planned high‑level delegation removed a key diplomatic channel, driving the May‑31 odds down sharply.
Market reaches endpoint: Yes probability 0% for May‑15 meeting
May 15 dips to 0%2%
By the end of the analysis window, no credible diplomatic progress had occurred, leaving the market at zero confidence for a meeting before May 15.
Iran army chief threatens preemptive attack amid rising rhetoric
June 30 dips to 57%3%
Iran’s army chief threatened preemptive military action in response to hostile rhetoric, signaling heightened tensions and reducing prospects for diplomatic engagement. This statement contributed to market declines in the likelihood of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz again
May 15 drops to 0%12%
Iran re‑closed the Strait of Hormuz on May 14, worsening the strategic outlook and driving the price for a May 15 meeting to its lowest point.
UK leads international talks pressing Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
June 30 dips to 59%1%
Diplomats from over 40 countries met virtually to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing diplomatic efforts but with the US absent, reflecting limited direct US-Iran engagement and dampening market optimism for imminent meetings.
U.S. announces pause on Project Freedom after diplomatic pushback
June 30 rises to 60%1%
Trump halted the ship‑guidance initiative to allow more time for diplomatic negotiations, briefly raising hopes for a meeting and nudging the June 30 price up to 60% from 59%.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war, citing fractured leadership
June 30 drops to 59%5%
President Trump dismissed Iran’s recent peace proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, prolonging diplomatic stalemate and causing a decline in market prices for the June 30 meeting.
US‑Iran indirect talks stall after Iranian envoy departs Pakistan
June 30 drops to 59%6%
The sudden departure of Iran’s foreign minister from Islamabad signaled a breakdown in negotiations, causing the June‑30 price to dip to 59% and the May‑31 price to fall to 24%.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 15 dips to 1%2%
President Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and Iran’s fractured leadership, which diminished market expectations for a diplomatic meeting by May 15 and May 31.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan, Trump urges phone talks only
May 15 dips to 27%4%
Iran’s top diplomat briefly returned to Islamabad while Trump insisted any further dialogue be conducted by phone, underscoring a lack of progress toward an in‑person US‑Iran meeting.
Iranian official says US 'maximalist' demands stall face-to-face talks
May 31 dips to 24%4%
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated that the US has not abandoned maximalist demands, preventing new face-to-face talks. This official stance contributed to market skepticism about a diplomatic meeting by May 31.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials in Tehran to arrange US‑Iran talks
May 31 drops to 30%8%
The meeting suggested a possible diplomatic breakthrough, briefly stabilizing the market and raising the May‑31 price from 38% back to 30% before it fell again later in the week.
Iran army chief threatens preemptive attack over ‘rhetoric’ targeting country
May 31 dips to 28%2%
Iran’s army chief threatened preemptive military action in response to hostile rhetoric, escalating tensions and reducing the likelihood of diplomatic meetings. This heightened risk perception contributed to further decline in market prices for the May 31 outcome.
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan for talks, Trump urges phone call
May 31 drops to 49%6%
The brief visit raised expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough, nudging the May‑31 odds upward before the subsequent cancellation pulled them down again.
Qatar foreign minister meets US Vice President Vance on Mideast talks
June 30 drops to 63%8%
Qatar’s foreign minister met JD Vance on May 12 to discuss US‑Iran mediation, providing a modest boost to expectations for a meeting by June 30.
US imposes new sanctions targeting Iranian nuclear research and ballistic missile support
May 31 plunges to 31%19%
The imposition of new sanctions heightened tensions and reduced optimism for a diplomatic meeting, contributing to a decline in market prices for meetings by May 31 and June 30.
Iran’s army chief threatens pre‑emptive attack over U.S. rhetoric
May 31 drops to 24%6%
The threatening statement from Iran’s army chief increased the perception of a hostile environment, further depressing the May‑31 price from 30% to 24% and the June‑30 price from 63% to 59%.
Iran’s foreign minister says Tehran will not negotiate until U.S. lifts blockade
June 30 dips to 60%3%
The statement underscored a stalemate, coinciding with the lowest points for the May‑31 and June‑30 outcomes as market participants priced in a low probability of a meeting.
Iran agrees to memorandum of understanding with US on peace deal
July 31 jumps to 86%6%
Iranian officials confirmed agreement on a memorandum, boosting market confidence as prices rose to 86% by May 24.
Pakistani mediators hold Islamabad Talks between US and Iran
July 31 surges to 74%24%
The Islamabad Talks on April 11-12, mediated by Pakistan, involved direct and indirect rounds between US and Iranian officials, raising hopes for diplomatic progress and temporarily boosting market prices for later meeting dates.
Trump calls cease‑fire “not satisfactory” and threatens further action
June 30 drops to 65%12%
Trump publicly stated he was not satisfied with Iran’s latest proposal, reducing market optimism and pulling the June‑30 price down to 65% and the May‑31 price to 30%.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war, citing fractured leadership
June 30 dips to 64%1%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership, which dampened hopes for imminent diplomatic meetings and caused market declines.
Trump says all options are on the table at UN Security Council
May 31 drops to 30%14%
Trump’s aggressive rhetoric at the UN signaled no imminent diplomatic breakthrough, coinciding with the May‑31 price dropping from 44% to 30% and the June‑30 price falling from 75% to 65%.
Trump announces pause of envoy mission to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 plunges to 30%16%
President Trump canceled the planned envoy mission to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress and suggesting phone calls instead. This decision dampened market expectations for a diplomatic meeting by May 31 and June 30, contributing to price declines.
U.S. forces disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait
May 31 drops to 45%9%
The U.S. military’s direct action against Iranian tankers underscored the hostile environment, causing the May 31 price to drop to 45% as market participants saw reduced diplomatic prospects.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
May 15 plunges to 12%21%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s new proposal on May 10, signaling continued deadlock and pushing the market price for a May 15 meeting toward zero.
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 15 plunges to 55%16%
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal signaled a stalled diplomatic process, causing the May‑15 price to tumble from 71% to 55% over the next two days.
Trump pauses Project Freedom amid renewed negotiation talks
June 30 plunges to 56%24%
The sudden halt signaled uncertainty and a possible hardening stance, causing the June‑30 odds to fall sharply.
Iran fires on ships in Strait of Hormuz after US blockade
June 30 rises to 77%4%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard opened fire on vessels attempting to transit the strait, escalating military tension and sharply reducing confidence in a diplomatic meeting; the June‑30 price fell to 77% then to 75% the next day, while the May‑31 price dropped to 55%.
Qatar’s top diplomat meets US Vice President to discuss Middle East mediation
July 31 surges to 74%24%
Qatar’s foreign minister met with US Vice President JD Vance to discuss ongoing mediation efforts including Pakistani initiatives, indicating continued diplomatic engagement and supporting market optimism for talks.
Qatar’s foreign minister meets US Vice President to discuss US‑Iran de‑escalation
July 31 surges to 74%73%
High‑level talks in Washington signaled renewed diplomatic momentum, lifting the July‑31 probability sharply while keeping earlier dates depressed.
Qatar’s top diplomat meets US Vice President to discuss Middle East negotiations
June 30 rises to 55%3%
Qatar, a regional mediator, engaged with US Vice President JD Vance to support ongoing mediation efforts between the US and Iran, indicating continued diplomatic dialogue though no direct meeting was confirmed.
Trump announces 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire
July 31 rises to 83%3%
Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, potentially signaling a broader shift in US foreign policy that could affect Middle East diplomacy.
Trump announces 3-day Russia-Ukraine ceasefire
While this was a separate conflict, the announcement may have diverted US diplomatic focus and resources, contributing to the perception that US-Iran talks were being deprioritized.
US forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
June 30 drops to 60%13%
The US disabling of Iranian tankers escalated military tension, leading to a sharp price decline for the June‑30 outcome from 73% to 60% within two days.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 44%5%
The direct military engagement heightened the risk of escalation, causing the May‑31 price to fall from 49% to 44% and the June‑30 price to slip from 72% to 65% that day.
Trump announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships through Hormuz, then pauses it
June 30 drops to 60%8%
The launch and abrupt halt of a U.S. initiative to reopen the strait signaled policy uncertainty, causing a brief price rebound followed by a decline as the pause suggested no imminent diplomatic breakthrough.
US fires on two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 33%12%
U.S. forces disabled two Iranian tankers on May 8, reigniting military tension and sharply reducing confidence for any diplomatic meeting by May 15.
US Vice President meets Qatar's top diplomat to discuss Middle East negotiations
JD Vance and Qatar’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani discussed ongoing mediation efforts including Pakistani facilitation of US-Iran talks, maintaining diplomatic engagement hopes and stabilizing market prices for the June 30 meeting.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 31 drops to 47%10%
US military strikes on Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz escalated tensions and undermined the fragile ceasefire, reducing market confidence in imminent diplomatic meetings by May 31 and June 30.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war with US
May 31 plunges to 30%21%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran’s fractured leadership. This rejection diminished hopes for a near-term diplomatic meeting, contributing to a price drop for the May 31 outcome.
U.S. announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships out of the Strait, then pauses effort
May 31 drops to 38%6%
The mixed signals about reopening the strait further eroded confidence in any near‑term diplomatic meeting, pushing the May‑31 price down further.
U.S. announces ‘Project Freedom’ to guide ships through Hormuz
June 30 jumps to 80%14%
The initiative suggested a willingness to reduce pressure on Iran, briefly reviving hopes of diplomatic engagement and lifting the June‑30 odds.
US‑Iran indirect talks in Oman produce optimistic statements
June 30 surges to 73%16%
U.S. Central Command head Brad Cooper joined indirect talks in Oman, leading traders to believe a direct US‑Iran meeting might be forthcoming; the June‑30 price surged to 73% and the May‑31 price rose to 52%.
Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visits Tehran for diplomatic talks
Naqvi's visit to Tehran, the second in less than a week, indicated active mediation efforts and ongoing indirect talks between the US and Iran, boosting market confidence for meetings by June 30.
U.S. announces pause to Project Freedom after limited ship transits
May 31 plunges to 21%34%
The suspension of the US‑led effort to guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz reduced optimism that pressure on Iran would translate into diplomatic talks, pushing the May‑31 price down sharply.
Iran fires on vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 surges to 54%26%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard opened fire on commercial ships, heightening tensions and further lowering confidence in any imminent diplomatic meeting, moving the May 31 price to 54%.
US announces 'Project Freedom' to guide ships through Strait of Hormuz, then pauses
June 30 surges to 80%19%
President Trump announced a plan to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz to ease shipping disruptions, briefly raising hopes for de-escalation. However, the effort was paused to allow time for a diplomatic deal, causing market volatility.
US and Iran reportedly close to one-page memo to end war
June 30 surges to 80%23%
Reports emerged that Pakistan and Qatar drafted a revised memo to bridge gaps between the US and Iran, signaling potential progress in indirect negotiations toward ending the conflict. This raised market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by June 30, reflected in price increases.
US and Iran nearing agreement on one-page memorandum of understanding
June 30 jumps to 66%6%
Negotiations led by US envoys and Iranian officials on a 14-point MOU to end the war and set framework for detailed nuclear talks increased market confidence for meetings by June 30 and July 31.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 31 surges to 54%26%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions and casting doubt on the ceasefire's durability. This military action further reduced market confidence in a diplomatic meeting by May 31 and June 30.
Iran announces reopening of Strait of Hormuz
June 30 rises to 71%2%
Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz reopened on May 6, easing regional tensions and briefly raising market optimism for a US‑Iran meeting by June 30.
Qatar’s top diplomat meets US Vice President to discuss Mideast negotiations
June 30 jumps to 71%10%
Qatar, a key regional mediator, met with US Vice President JD Vance to review Pakistani mediation efforts and encourage engagement in ongoing diplomatic talks, providing some support for the possibility of US-Iran meetings by June 30.
Pakistani delegation hosts Iranian foreign minister in Islamabad
June 15 drops to 52%6%
Pakistani officials escorted Iranian officials to Islamabad for talks on 5 May, signalling a renewed diplomatic track. The market responded with a modest rise in the June‑15 price.
UK gathers 40+ countries to press Iran to reopen Hormuz
The diplomatic summit underscored international pressure on Iran but did not produce a concrete US‑Iran meeting, keeping market sentiment low and contributing to the continued price decline.
US military strikes Iranian military sites in response to attacks in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 30%14%
US strikes on Iranian sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island escalated tensions, undermining ceasefire efforts and reducing market confidence in a diplomatic meeting before May 31 and June 30, causing a sharp price decline for these outcomes.
U.S. expands naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 plunges to 28%27%
Trump announced a full‑scale blockade, reinforcing pressure on Tehran and reducing the likelihood of an in‑person diplomatic meeting, pushing the May 31 price down to 28% from 55%.
US‑Iran cease‑fire extension announced
June 30 drops to 57%12%
The White House announced an indefinite extension of the cease‑fire, reviving hopes of a diplomatic meeting and briefly boosting the June‑30 price to 57% before a rapid decline later that day.
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi visits China to strengthen ties amid stalled US talks
June 30 rises to 68%2%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's visit to Beijing to meet China's Wang Yi aimed to secure economic and diplomatic support amid stalled US-Iran negotiations. China's call for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and emphasis on continued negotiations influenced market sentiment about indirect diplomatic efforts.
Iran's foreign minister speaks with Pakistan's military chief in Tehran amid ceasefire talks
May 31 dips to 46%2%
This direct diplomatic engagement between key Iranian and Pakistani officials helped maintain momentum for negotiations, supporting the May 31 price at 46% and June 30 at 85%.
Iranian negotiator Abbas Araghchi cancels scheduled US meeting citing technical reasons
The cancellation of a planned meeting between Iranian and US representatives underscored ongoing diplomatic stalemate and reduced optimism for a near-term direct diplomatic meeting.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan for second round of talks
June 15 drops to 44%6%
Abbas Araghchi’s brief return to Islamabad was reported as a step toward resuming direct negotiations, briefly raising hopes for a meeting before June 15.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
July 31 drops to 70%5%
President Trump’s dismissal of the Iranian plan reduced optimism that talks would culminate in an in‑person meeting, pulling the July odds down.
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
June 30 drops to 61%7%
The Treasury’s warning that payments to Iran could trigger sanctions underscored the hostile environment, further eroding market confidence and pushing the June‑30 price from 68% to 61% on May 2.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in Hormuz
May 31 drops to 31%13%
U.S. naval action against Iranian tankers heightened hostilities, reinforcing the perception that diplomatic channels were stalled and pushing the May 31 outcome lower.
US envoy trip to Islamabad cancelled by Trump
May 31 rises to 47%3%
President Trump told envoys not to travel to Islamabad on May 2, halting the planned US delegation and further lowering odds for a meeting by May 31.
President Trump rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
June 30 drops to 61%5%
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s latest offer, dampening expectations of a near‑term meeting and pulling prices for the June‑30 and June‑15 outcomes down.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest proposal to end war
May 31 jumps to 46%6%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s ceasefire proposal, citing dissatisfaction and fractured Iranian leadership, signaling stalled negotiations and reducing market confidence in a diplomatic meeting by May 31.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 12%6%
The direct military action heightened the risk of escalation, causing a sharp drop in the May‑15 price as traders saw diplomatic engagement receding.
Pakistan‑mediated talks stall as Iran pulls back from Islamabad
June 30 drops to 67%6%
After Araghchi’s brief return to Pakistan, he left again for Moscow, signaling a breakdown in direct talks and causing the June 30 price to fall to 67% as market confidence waned.
U.S. announces Project Freedom to guide ships through Hormuz
June 30 drops to 55%14%
President Trump unveiled a plan to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting a de‑escalation that briefly lifted market pessimism about US‑Iran engagement.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
June 30 rises to 70%2%
Lebanon and Israel held direct talks brokered by the US, signaling regional diplomatic efforts amid the Iran war. However, this did not directly involve US-Iran talks and thus had limited positive impact on the market for a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31 or June 30.
US‑Iran cease‑fire talks end without agreement in Pakistan
May 31 drops to 44%7%
The 21‑hour face‑to‑face talks in Pakistan concluded without a deal on April 30, causing a sharp decline in confidence for a meeting by May 31.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
May 15 drops to 23%14%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and undermining prospects for diplomatic meetings, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for May 15 and May 31 outcomes.
Trump cancels envoy mission to Islamabad, urges phone talks
June 30 drops to 62%10%
President Trump announced he would not send envoys to Pakistan, opting for phone calls, which dampened expectations of an in‑person US‑Iran meeting and caused the June‑30 price to slip to 62% and the May‑31 price to fall to 40%.
Iran announces reopening of Strait of Hormuz after 10‑day truce
July 31 dips to 75%3%
The brief reopening eased shipping concerns and suggested de‑escalation, temporarily raising odds of a diplomatic meeting later in the month.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 31%13%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire and prospects for direct talks. This event contributed to a decline in market confidence for a diplomatic meeting by May 31.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
June 30 drops to 65%7%
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz and attacked ships, escalating tensions and signaling ongoing conflict, which undermined prospects for diplomatic meetings and contributed to market price declines.
Iranian official says US ‘maximalist’ demands stall face-to-face talks
May 31 dips to 53%2%
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh stated Iran is not ready for new face-to-face talks due to US maximalist demands, indicating significant negotiation hurdles and lowering market expectations for a diplomatic meeting by May 31.
UK hosts international talks to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
June 30 drops to 66%7%
Diplomats from over 40 countries met virtually to discuss diplomatic and political pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting global concern but no direct US-Iran talks. This contributed to market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
U.S. President Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
June 30 jumps to 73%7%
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s latest offer, dampening expectations of a face‑to‑face meeting and pushing the June 30 price down to 73% after a brief rally.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct diplomatic talks in decades in Washington
June 30 drops to 62%11%
While unrelated directly to US-Iran talks, this diplomatic breakthrough involving Iran-backed Hezbollah’s key ally Lebanon indicated regional diplomatic activity, briefly supporting optimism for broader Middle East negotiations including US-Iran talks.
Iran’s foreign minister returns to Pakistan for second round of talks
June 30 jumps to 72%6%
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad, signaling a possible resumption of direct negotiations, which lifted hopes and pushed the June‑30 price up to 72% and the May‑31 price up to 41%.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi meets Russian President Putin discussing war and diplomacy
Araghchi's meeting with Putin included discussions on the ongoing war and a diplomatic process mediated by Pakistan, signaling ongoing indirect diplomatic efforts and supporting some market optimism for meetings by June 30.
U.S. Central Command commander joins indirect Iran talks in Oman
July 31 surges to 78%28%
Adm. Brad Cooper arrived in Oman for high‑level talks with Iranian officials, signalling a possible diplomatic breakthrough and boosting confidence that a meeting could occur before July 31.
Iranian official Abbas Araghchi tours region amid stalled talks
June 30 dips to 66%2%
Iranian official Abbas Araghchi's regional tour was seen as evidence of Iran's diplomatic options and leverage, but public statements urged caution on nuclear and Strait of Hormuz issues, reflecting ongoing deadlock and impacting market sentiment.
U.S. announces naval blockade of Iranian ports
June 30 dips to 62%4%
President Trump declared a full naval blockade of Iran’s ports, heightening tensions and reducing optimism for a US‑Iran diplomatic meeting, causing the June‑30 price to fall from 66% to 62% and the May‑31 price to drop from 55% to 40%.
Pakistan mediates US-Iran peace talks amid ongoing conflict
June 30 rises to 69%3%
Pakistan's military chief and officials engaged in diplomatic efforts in Tehran to advance peace talks between the US and Iran, signaling ongoing indirect negotiations and raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution.
UK hosts 40+ countries to press Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Britain convened a virtual meeting of over 40 countries to discuss diplomatic means to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting international concern but with the US absent. This event underscored the diplomatic stalemate and lack of direct US-Iran talks, negatively impacting market optimism for a meeting by June 30.
Iran’s foreign minister makes a surprise visit to Islamabad for cease‑fire talks
Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi arrived in Pakistan to discuss a possible cease‑fire and diplomatic opening, prompting traders to view a US‑Iran meeting as more likely, lifting the June 30 price to 66%.
US and Israel launch large-scale strikes on Iran
May 31 drops to 45%10%
The US and Israel began strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war and suspending previous negotiations, which caused market uncertainty and a price drop.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
Trump’s public dismissal of Iran’s proposal removed any immediate prospect of a diplomatic meeting, triggering a sharp price decline for both June‑30 and May‑31 contracts.
President Trump announces full naval blockade of Iranian ports
June 30 plunges to 51%15%
On April 28, 2026, President Trump imposed a full naval blockade on Iranian ports, intensifying pressure on Tehran and reducing market optimism for an imminent in-person diplomatic meeting, causing a decline in prices for near-term meeting outcomes.
Islamabad peace talks between US and Iran conclude with cautious optimism
The Islamabad Talks held on April 11-12, 2026, mediated by Pakistan, involved direct and indirect negotiations between US and Iranian officials aiming to stabilize the ceasefire and negotiate peace. This event initially boosted market confidence in a diplomatic meeting by June 30, reflected in prices around 66%.
U.S. Central Command chief joins indirect Iran talks in Oman
July 31 jumps to 78%12%
Adm. Brad Cooper’s appearance in Oman signaled a rare military‑backed diplomatic push, boosting market confidence that a U.S.–Iran meeting could occur by late July.
Pakistan’s military chief visits Iran to support diplomatic efforts
June 30 jumps to 72%6%
Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir traveled to Tehran to meet senior Iranian officials, signaling active mediation efforts to keep diplomatic channels open amid US-Iran tensions. This visit raised hopes for a diplomatic meeting, influencing market confidence for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 drops to 51%14%
President Trump announced a full naval blockade of Iranian ports on April 28, intensifying pressure on Tehran and dampening expectations for an imminent in‑person meeting.
US President Trump signals Iran wants Strait of Hormuz reopened soon
June 30 jumps to 72%6%
Trump stated that Tehran had communicated a desire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz quickly, suggesting diplomatic talks might include maritime access issues, raising market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by June 30.
Pakistan delegation meets Iranian officials in Tehran
June 30 jumps to 72%6%
A high‑level Pakistani delegation met Iran’s foreign minister to discuss a second round of US‑Iran talks, but no concrete outcome was announced, contributing to a modest price rise that later reversed.
US and Iran announce temporary two-week ceasefire amid stalled negotiations
On April 7, 2026, the US and Iran announced a temporary ceasefire, signaling a pause in hostilities and a potential opening for diplomatic talks, which initially raised market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by June 30.
Iranian FM Araghchi’s regional tour signals diplomatic options
June 15 surges to 69%25%
Araghchi’s regional tour was portrayed as evidence of Iran’s diplomatic options, briefly reviving confidence and raising the June 15 odds.
Iran and US announce temporary two-week ceasefire amid stalled negotiations
June 30 rises to 69%3%
On April 7, 2026, Iran and the United States announced a temporary two-week ceasefire, signaling a pause in hostilities and a potential opening for diplomatic engagement, which initially supported market optimism for a diplomatic meeting by June 30.
Pakistan mediates ongoing US-Iran negotiations amid fragile ceasefire
June 30 jumps to 71%5%
Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi visited Tehran to meet Iranian officials, signaling active mediation efforts and ongoing indirect talks between the US and Iran to resolve the conflict, supporting market optimism for meetings by June 30.
Iranian lawmakers urge secrecy on nuclear talks amid stalled US-Iran negotiations
May 22 plunges to 6%44%
Iranian officials called for discretion regarding positions on nuclear issues and the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting internal divisions and complicating diplomatic progress. This contributed to market skepticism about near-term in-person meetings, impacting prices for early May outcomes.
Iranian envoy Abbas Araghchi tours region amid stalled talks
June 30 drops to 60%8%
Araghchi's regional tour was presented as evidence of Iran's diplomatic options and leverage, but public statements urged officials to avoid discussing nuclear and Strait of Hormuz issues, highlighting diplomatic deadlock and limiting optimism for near-term meetings.
Iran’s foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan amid stalled talks
May 31 dips to 24%4%
Iran’s foreign minister returned briefly to Islamabad amid ongoing indirect talks, but President Trump suggested the sides could talk by phone instead of in-person meetings, further diminishing chances of a diplomatic meeting by May 31.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal, calling it unsatisfactory
May 31 drops to 49%6%
The president’s dismissal of Iran’s offer reduced optimism that a meeting would be scheduled, contributing to the continued decline of the May‑31 price.
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan; Trump prefers phone talks
May 15 drops to 71%8%
The brief return of Iran’s foreign minister to Islamabad raised hopes for a second round of talks, but Trump’s insistence on phone negotiations dampened optimism, causing the May‑15 price to drop from 79% to 71% the next day.
Iranian foreign minister briefly returns to Pakistan, Trump urges phone talks
May 31 drops to 44%5%
Iran’s foreign minister’s brief visit to Islamabad ended with Trump refusing to send envoys, reinforcing the perception that in‑person talks were stalled, contributing to the May‑31 price dip from 49% to 44% that day.
Iran’s top diplomat returns to Pakistan after talks canceled
May 31 dips to 27%4%
Iran’s foreign minister returned to Pakistan after the cancellation of talks, while Trump suggested the sides could talk by phone instead, reflecting ongoing diplomatic uncertainty and contributing to market declines for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks as Iran's top diplomat leaves Islamabad
May 15 drops to 4%10%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan abruptly and President Trump announced he told US envoys not to travel to Islamabad for follow-up talks, signaling a breakdown in planned direct negotiations. This caused a sharp drop in market confidence for May 15 and May 31 meeting dates.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iran’s top diplomat left Pakistan and President Trump said he told envoys not to travel to Islamabad, signaling a breakdown in planned talks and causing a sharp market decline in optimism for meetings by May 31 and May 15.
Pakistani army chief meets Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran
June 30 dips to 69%2%
A Pakistani delegation met Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran on April 25, seeking to set up a second US‑Iran negotiation round, which temporarily boosted market confidence for a meeting by late June.
Iran’s top diplomat leaves Pakistan as US envoys called off by Trump
May 15 plunges to 0%79%
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi left Pakistan without meeting US envoys after President Trump called off sending envoys to Islamabad, signaling a breakdown in planned direct talks and causing market prices for May 15 and May 31 meetings to drop sharply.
Trump says US-Iran talks could resume soon but no schedule set
June 30 jumps to 71%8%
President Trump indicated that a second round of talks could happen within two days, but a US official later said no talks were scheduled, reflecting uncertainty and causing mixed market reactions with some volatility.
Trump rejects Iran’s latest peace proposal
May 31 drops to 45%10%
President Trump publicly dismissed Iran’s new offer, indicating no progress toward a negotiated settlement and lowering market confidence that a US‑Iran meeting would be arranged soon.
Pakistan delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions and arrange talks
June 30 jumps to 63%6%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to facilitate a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expires, raising hopes for diplomacy and causing a temporary market rebound for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranian‑flagged cargo ship near Hormuz
May 15 drops to 70%9%
The first U.S. seizure of an Iranian vessel under the blockade raised tensions and suggested the cease‑fire was unraveling, further dampening hopes for a diplomatic meeting.
Pakistan’s army chief meets Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran to discuss US‑Iran talks
May 15 drops to 70%9%
The meeting signaled a possible diplomatic channel but produced no concrete agreement, coinciding with a price dip for the May‑15 outcome as traders saw no imminent meeting.
U.S. rejects Iran’s latest cease‑fire proposal
May 15 drops to 71%8%
Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iran’s proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, indicating no imminent meeting and coinciding with the May‑15 price falling from 79% to 71%.
US‑Iran back‑channel talks resume in Islamabad
June 30 jumps to 71%5%
Diplomats worked through back channels on April 21 to arrange a new round of US‑Iran talks in Islamabad, raising hopes for a diplomatic meeting before the cease‑fire expires.
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