Recent narrowing in monthly U.S. trade deficits, with the goods-and-services gap falling to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May and a first-half cumulative total of $371.2 billion (down roughly one-third from 2025), underpins trader preference for the 800–900 billion and 700–800 billion ranges. Elevated 2025 tariffs curbed import growth after front-loading, while services exports and gradual economic normalization support moderate rebound in flows without fully reversing the contraction. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing policy uncertainty, potential dollar movements, and fiscal stimulus effects that could lift imports later in the year, keeping outcomes clustered around 750–850 billion as the consensus view of 2026 results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
33%
800–900B
42%
900B–1T
15%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
5%
$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
33%
800–900B
$1,519 Vol.
42%
900B–1T
$1,397 Vol.
15%
1T–1.1T
$1,458 Vol.
5%
1.1T+
$1,119 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent narrowing in monthly U.S. trade deficits, with the goods-and-services gap falling to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May and a first-half cumulative total of $371.2 billion (down roughly one-third from 2025), underpins trader preference for the 800–900 billion and 700–800 billion ranges. Elevated 2025 tariffs curbed import growth after front-loading, while services exports and gradual economic normalization support moderate rebound in flows without fully reversing the contraction. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing policy uncertainty, potential dollar movements, and fiscal stimulus effects that could lift imports later in the year, keeping outcomes clustered around 750–850 billion as the consensus view of 2026 results.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent narrowing in monthly U.S. trade deficits, with the goods-and-services gap falling to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May and a first-half cumulative total of $371.2 billion (down roughly one-third from 2025), underpins trader preference for the 800–900 billion and 700–800 billion ranges. Elevated 2025 tariffs curbed import growth after front-loading, while services exports and gradual economic normalization support moderate rebound in flows without fully reversing the contraction. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing policy uncertainty, potential dollar movements, and fiscal stimulus effects that could lift imports later in the year, keeping outcomes clustered around 750–850 billion as the consensus view of 2026 results.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent narrowing in monthly U.S. trade deficits, with the goods-and-services gap falling to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May and a first-half cumulative total of $371.2 billion (down roughly one-third from 2025), underpins trader preference for the 800–900 billion and 700–800 billion ranges. Elevated 2025 tariffs curbed import growth after front-loading, while services exports and gradual economic normalization support moderate rebound in flows without fully reversing the contraction. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing policy uncertainty, potential dollar movements, and fiscal stimulus effects that could lift imports later in the year, keeping outcomes clustered around 750–850 billion as the consensus view of 2026 results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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