President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, issued ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, remains the central driver of market positioning. Subsequent administration statements clarified that preparations focus on non-explosive or subcritical activities rather than full-yield detonations, while technical assessments indicate that resuming underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24 to 36 months of site readiness and funding. Ongoing congressional proposals to mandate legislative approval for any resumption, combined with U.S. compliance reports citing Russian and Chinese activities that may violate zero-yield standards, sustain uncertainty. No explosive test has occurred since 1992, and current timelines align with low implied probabilities for any test by late 2026. Scheduled diplomatic and budget reviews through mid-2026 could influence whether preparations advance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$667,461 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
30 червня 2026 року
2%
30 вересня 2026 року
5%
31 грудня 2026 року
9%
$667,461 Обс.
30 червня 2026 року
$40,114 Обс.
2%
30 вересня 2026 року
$6,656 Обс.
5%
31 грудня 2026 року
$10,472 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, issued ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, remains the central driver of market positioning. Subsequent administration statements clarified that preparations focus on non-explosive or subcritical activities rather than full-yield detonations, while technical assessments indicate that resuming underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24 to 36 months of site readiness and funding. Ongoing congressional proposals to mandate legislative approval for any resumption, combined with U.S. compliance reports citing Russian and Chinese activities that may violate zero-yield standards, sustain uncertainty. No explosive test has occurred since 1992, and current timelines align with low implied probabilities for any test by late 2026. Scheduled diplomatic and budget reviews through mid-2026 could influence whether preparations advance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$667,461Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, issued ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, remains the central driver of market positioning. Subsequent administration statements clarified that preparations focus on non-explosive or subcritical activities rather than full-yield detonations, while technical assessments indicate that resuming underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24 to 36 months of site readiness and funding. Ongoing congressional proposals to mandate legislative approval for any resumption, combined with U.S. compliance reports citing Russian and Chinese activities that may violate zero-yield standards, sustain uncertainty. No explosive test has occurred since 1992, and current timelines align with low implied probabilities for any test by late 2026. Scheduled diplomatic and budget reviews through mid-2026 could influence whether preparations advance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$667,461Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to begin nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with other nations, issued ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, remains the central driver of market positioning. Subsequent administration statements clarified that preparations focus on non-explosive or subcritical activities rather than full-yield detonations, while technical assessments indicate that resuming underground explosive testing at the Nevada National Security Site would require 24 to 36 months of site readiness and funding. Ongoing congressional proposals to mandate legislative approval for any resumption, combined with U.S. compliance reports citing Russian and Chinese activities that may violate zero-yield standards, sustain uncertainty. No explosive test has occurred since 1992, and current timelines align with low implied probabilities for any test by late 2026. Scheduled diplomatic and budget reviews through mid-2026 could influence whether preparations advance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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