President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with rivals like Russia and China prompted trader attention, citing concerns over those nations' activities under the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the move as likely limited to subcritical or non-explosive experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations, which would require 24–36 months of preparation and congressional funding approvals. No explosive test has occurred through May 2026, and analysts note significant technical, diplomatic, and domestic hurdles remain before any such event. Upcoming factors include potential 2026 budget decisions on stockpile stewardship and any further policy signals tied to arms control talks or adversary developments.
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$667,460 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
30 Juni 2026
2%
30 September 2026
6%
31 Desember 2026
9%
$667,460 Vol.
30 Juni 2026
$40,114 Vol.
2%
30 September 2026
$6,655 Vol.
6%
31 Desember 2026
$10,472 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with rivals like Russia and China prompted trader attention, citing concerns over those nations' activities under the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the move as likely limited to subcritical or non-explosive experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations, which would require 24–36 months of preparation and congressional funding approvals. No explosive test has occurred through May 2026, and analysts note significant technical, diplomatic, and domestic hurdles remain before any such event. Upcoming factors include potential 2026 budget decisions on stockpile stewardship and any further policy signals tied to arms control talks or adversary developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$667,460Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with rivals like Russia and China prompted trader attention, citing concerns over those nations' activities under the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the move as likely limited to subcritical or non-explosive experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations, which would require 24–36 months of preparation and congressional funding approvals. No explosive test has occurred through May 2026, and analysts note significant technical, diplomatic, and domestic hurdles remain before any such event. Upcoming factors include potential 2026 budget decisions on stockpile stewardship and any further policy signals tied to arms control talks or adversary developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$667,460Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with rivals like Russia and China prompted trader attention, citing concerns over those nations' activities under the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the move as likely limited to subcritical or non-explosive experiments at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations, which would require 24–36 months of preparation and congressional funding approvals. No explosive test has occurred through May 2026, and analysts note significant technical, diplomatic, and domestic hurdles remain before any such event. Upcoming factors include potential 2026 budget decisions on stockpile stewardship and any further policy signals tied to arms control talks or adversary developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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