President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other nations initially elevated market attention, citing Russian and Chinese activities including subcritical experiments and delivery system trials. Subsequent clarifications from the Energy Secretary emphasized non-explosive simulations and system checks rather than full-yield detonations, while Congress considered legislation requiring explicit approval for any explosive tests. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed a key bilateral constraint, yet no underground explosive tests have occurred since 1992, reflecting technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles that continue to shape trader assessments of near-term resumption.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare statunitense di...?
Test nucleare statunitense di...?
$666,598 Vol.
30 giu 2026
30 giugno 2026
2%
30 settembre 2026
5%
31 dicembre 2026
9%
$666,598 Vol.
30 giugno 2026
$39,875 Vol.
2%
30 settembre 2026
$6,032 Vol.
5%
31 dicembre 2026
$10,472 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other nations initially elevated market attention, citing Russian and Chinese activities including subcritical experiments and delivery system trials. Subsequent clarifications from the Energy Secretary emphasized non-explosive simulations and system checks rather than full-yield detonations, while Congress considered legislation requiring explicit approval for any explosive tests. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed a key bilateral constraint, yet no underground explosive tests have occurred since 1992, reflecting technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles that continue to shape trader assessments of near-term resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$666,598Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other nations initially elevated market attention, citing Russian and Chinese activities including subcritical experiments and delivery system trials. Subsequent clarifications from the Energy Secretary emphasized non-explosive simulations and system checks rather than full-yield detonations, while Congress considered legislation requiring explicit approval for any explosive tests. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed a key bilateral constraint, yet no underground explosive tests have occurred since 1992, reflecting technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles that continue to shape trader assessments of near-term resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$666,598Data di fine
31 mar 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with other nations initially elevated market attention, citing Russian and Chinese activities including subcritical experiments and delivery system trials. Subsequent clarifications from the Energy Secretary emphasized non-explosive simulations and system checks rather than full-yield detonations, while Congress considered legislation requiring explicit approval for any explosive tests. The February 2026 expiration of New START removed a key bilateral constraint, yet no underground explosive tests have occurred since 1992, reflecting technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles that continue to shape trader assessments of near-term resumption.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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