Ongoing indirect negotiations via Qatari mediators, following Iran's late-September seven-day proposal at the UN General Assembly for reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the US naval blockade, easing sanctions, and unfreezing assets, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment. President Trump rejected the plan over sequencing disputes but confirmed further engagement, while both sides maintain deconfliction channels to prevent incidents. Iran has warned of a stronger response to any renewed US or Israeli military action, including post-midterm strikes, and closed the strait again amid Israeli operations in Lebanon. Scheduled mediation efforts, including UN involvement in Islamabad, and economic pressure on Tehran could influence whether the latest fragile pause holds through key resolution windows.