Recent UK GDP momentum has slowed amid elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, with Q2 2026 expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1. Services drove most of that gain while construction and production lagged, and monthly figures showed only 0.3% growth in June. The Bank of England has held Bank Rate at 3.75%, citing risks of persistent inflation above 3% later in 2026 and weak underlying demand. Forecasters project subdued Q3 expansion near 0.2%, tempered by higher borrowing costs and real-income erosion, though a quicker resolution of energy volatility could support a modest rebound toward 0.4%. The first official Q3 estimate is due in late October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2–0.3% 42%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.0–0.1% 25%
Negative 6%
$18,967 Vol.
$18,967 Vol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
6%
0.0–0.1%
25%
0.2–0.3%
42%
0.4–0.5%
26%
0.6–0.7%
4%
0.8–0.9%
<1%
1.0%+
2%
0.2–0.3% 42%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.0–0.1% 25%
Negative 6%
$18,967 Vol.
$18,967 Vol.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
$4,009 Vol.
6%
0.0–0.1%
$5,887 Vol.
25%
0.2–0.3%
$6,689 Vol.
42%
0.4–0.5%
$1,674 Vol.
26%
0.6–0.7%
$270 Vol.
4%
0.8–0.9%
$201 Vol.
<1%
1.0%+
$237 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK GDP momentum has slowed amid elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, with Q2 2026 expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1. Services drove most of that gain while construction and production lagged, and monthly figures showed only 0.3% growth in June. The Bank of England has held Bank Rate at 3.75%, citing risks of persistent inflation above 3% later in 2026 and weak underlying demand. Forecasters project subdued Q3 expansion near 0.2%, tempered by higher borrowing costs and real-income erosion, though a quicker resolution of energy volatility could support a modest rebound toward 0.4%. The first official Q3 estimate is due in late October.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$18,967End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent UK GDP momentum has slowed amid elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, with Q2 2026 expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1. Services drove most of that gain while construction and production lagged, and monthly figures showed only 0.3% growth in June. The Bank of England has held Bank Rate at 3.75%, citing risks of persistent inflation above 3% later in 2026 and weak underlying demand. Forecasters project subdued Q3 expansion near 0.2%, tempered by higher borrowing costs and real-income erosion, though a quicker resolution of energy volatility could support a modest rebound toward 0.4%. The first official Q3 estimate is due in late October.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$18,967End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent UK GDP momentum has slowed amid elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, with Q2 2026 expanding 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1. Services drove most of that gain while construction and production lagged, and monthly figures showed only 0.3% growth in June. The Bank of England has held Bank Rate at 3.75%, citing risks of persistent inflation above 3% later in 2026 and weak underlying demand. Forecasters project subdued Q3 expansion near 0.2%, tempered by higher borrowing costs and real-income erosion, though a quicker resolution of energy volatility could support a modest rebound toward 0.4%. The first official Q3 estimate is due in late October.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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