Texas's 31st congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical results favoring GOP candidates. Incumbent Representative John Carter, first elected in 2003, secured the Republican nomination in the March 2026 primary with nearly 60% of the vote despite multiple challengers. Democrat Justin Early won his party's primary, while a Green Party candidate also qualified for the November 3, 2026, general election ballot. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's voter base, urban-rural mix, and lack of recent competitive general election outcomes. These structural and nomination factors underpin trader consensus on the Republican outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-31 House Election Winner
TX-31 House Election Winner
$38,825 Vol.
$38,825 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
9%
$38,825 Vol.
$38,825 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$19,350 Vol.
90%
Democratic Party
$19,476 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 31st congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical results favoring GOP candidates. Incumbent Representative John Carter, first elected in 2003, secured the Republican nomination in the March 2026 primary with nearly 60% of the vote despite multiple challengers. Democrat Justin Early won his party's primary, while a Green Party candidate also qualified for the November 3, 2026, general election ballot. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's voter base, urban-rural mix, and lack of recent competitive general election outcomes. These structural and nomination factors underpin trader consensus on the Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$38,825End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 31st congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical results favoring GOP candidates. Incumbent Representative John Carter, first elected in 2003, secured the Republican nomination in the March 2026 primary with nearly 60% of the vote despite multiple challengers. Democrat Justin Early won his party's primary, while a Green Party candidate also qualified for the November 3, 2026, general election ballot. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's voter base, urban-rural mix, and lack of recent competitive general election outcomes. These structural and nomination factors underpin trader consensus on the Republican outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,825End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 31st congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent historical results favoring GOP candidates. Incumbent Representative John Carter, first elected in 2003, secured the Republican nomination in the March 2026 primary with nearly 60% of the vote despite multiple challengers. Democrat Justin Early won his party's primary, while a Green Party candidate also qualified for the November 3, 2026, general election ballot. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's voter base, urban-rural mix, and lack of recent competitive general election outcomes. These structural and nomination factors underpin trader consensus on the Republican outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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