Texas's 31st congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party's nominee positioned as the clear frontrunner in trader assessments. Twelve-term incumbent John Carter secured the Republican nomination in the March primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. The Democratic primary produced Justin Early as nominee. The district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and recent presidential voting patterns, including a 60-38 Trump margin in 2024, underscore the structural Republican advantage. With no major shifts in candidate strength or district composition reported since the primaries, the market reflects consensus on limited crossover appeal for the Democratic nominee in this central Texas constituency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-31 House Election Winner
TX-31 House Election Winner
$38,527 Vol.
$38,527 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
9%
$38,527 Vol.
$38,527 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$19,341 Vol.
90%
Democratic Party
$19,186 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 31st congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party's nominee positioned as the clear frontrunner in trader assessments. Twelve-term incumbent John Carter secured the Republican nomination in the March primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. The Democratic primary produced Justin Early as nominee. The district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and recent presidential voting patterns, including a 60-38 Trump margin in 2024, underscore the structural Republican advantage. With no major shifts in candidate strength or district composition reported since the primaries, the market reflects consensus on limited crossover appeal for the Democratic nominee in this central Texas constituency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$38,527End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 31st congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party's nominee positioned as the clear frontrunner in trader assessments. Twelve-term incumbent John Carter secured the Republican nomination in the March primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. The Democratic primary produced Justin Early as nominee. The district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and recent presidential voting patterns, including a 60-38 Trump margin in 2024, underscore the structural Republican advantage. With no major shifts in candidate strength or district composition reported since the primaries, the market reflects consensus on limited crossover appeal for the Democratic nominee in this central Texas constituency.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,527End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 31st congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with the party's nominee positioned as the clear frontrunner in trader assessments. Twelve-term incumbent John Carter secured the Republican nomination in the March primary with roughly 60 percent of the vote against multiple challengers. The Democratic primary produced Justin Early as nominee. The district's R+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index and recent presidential voting patterns, including a 60-38 Trump margin in 2024, underscore the structural Republican advantage. With no major shifts in candidate strength or district composition reported since the primaries, the market reflects consensus on limited crossover appeal for the Democratic nominee in this central Texas constituency.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions