President Trump's informal references to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump," including a March speech and April Truth Social post sharing an altered map, remained rhetorical gestures without triggering any official renaming process. Geographic features require coordinated international approval through bodies like the International Hydrographic Organization, alongside domestic executive or legislative steps, none of which advanced by the May 31 deadline. This structural barrier, combined with the absence of announcements or actions from the administration or affected nations, drove trader consensus to near-certainty on the negative outcome. Late developments such as an unexpected executive order or diplomatic agreement could theoretically have shifted probabilities, though none materialized.