Republican congressional majorities have blocked Democratic impeachment resolutions and shown no appetite for invoking the 25th Amendment, anchoring trader consensus that President Trump will remain in office through 2026. Despite documented health and cognitive concerns raised by physicians and some former allies, along with low approval ratings tied to the Iran conflict and economic pressures, no cabinet-level action or bipartisan removal effort has materialized. Trump continues public appearances, executive actions, and midterm campaigning. The primary remaining variables that could shift odds involve an unforeseen acute health crisis, sudden cabinet consensus on incapacity, or a major scandal prompting Republican defections before the 2027 threshold.