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icon for Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner

Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner

icon for Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner

Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner

Schmigadoon! 100.0%

The Lost Boys <1%

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) <1%

Titaníque <1%

Polymarket

$6,811 Vol.

Schmigadoon! 100.0%

The Lost Boys <1%

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) <1%

Titaníque <1%

Polymarket

$6,811 Vol.

The Lost Boys

$678 Vol.

No

Schmigadoon!

$1,952 Vol.

Yes

Titaníque

$1,930 Vol.

No

Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

$2,251 Vol.

No

The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Schmigadoon! has locked in overwhelming trader consensus for the 2026 Tony Award for Best Musical, driven by its sweep of key precursor signals and industry momentum following the May 5 nominations. The stage adaptation earned 12 Tony nods—tying The Lost Boys for the most—and picked up strong support from critics’ circles, guild voters, and Broadway insiders who favored its nostalgic Golden Age parody and creative team momentum over a thin field of new musicals. With the Tony ceremony now underway, the market reflects confirmed frontrunner status backed by real capital rather than speculation. An upset would require an unforeseen late shift among Academy voters, though historical patterns show such reversals are rare once guild and critics’ awards align this decisively.

The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,811
End Date
Jun 7, 2026
Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Schmigadoon! has locked in overwhelming trader consensus for the 2026 Tony Award for Best Musical, driven by its sweep of key precursor signals and industry momentum following the May 5 nominations. The stage adaptation earned 12 Tony nods—tying The Lost Boys for the most—and picked up strong support from critics’ circles, guild voters, and Broadway insiders who favored its nostalgic Golden Age parody and creative team momentum over a thin field of new musicals. With the Tony ceremony now underway, the market reflects confirmed frontrunner status backed by real capital rather than speculation. An upset would require an unforeseen late shift among Academy voters, though historical patterns show such reversals are rare once guild and critics’ awards align this decisively.

The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,811
End Date
Jun 7, 2026
Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 4:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The ceremony for the 79th Annual Tony Awards is scheduled for June 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed show that wins the award for Best Musical at the 79th Annual Tony Awards. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed contender whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the Tony Awards and the official Tony website (https://www.tonyawards.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Schmigadoon!" at 100%, followed by "The Lost Boys" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner" is "Schmigadoon!" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "The Lost Boys" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tony Awards: Best Musical Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.