The Department of Justice opened a criminal investigation into Minnesota Governor Tim Walz in January 2026, centering on allegations that he and other state officials conspired to impede federal immigration enforcement operations and failed to address widespread welfare fraud schemes totaling billions in misused child nutrition, Medicaid, and related funds. Federal raids in late April targeted additional fraud sites linked to the scandals, yielding arrests of other individuals but no action against Walz, who has publicly disputed the probes and declined to seek reelection. Congressional referrals and oversight hearings have highlighted oversight lapses during his administration, yet no formal charges or indictments have been announced as of mid-May. Trader odds reflect the absence of an indictment to date, tempered by uncertainty over whether grand jury proceedings or additional evidence will produce charges before the market resolution date.