Traders see a tightly contested race for third place in Text Arena Math rankings by end of October, with Google at 37.5% and Z.ai at 33.9% leading a broad field of AI labs where no single contender exceeds 50%. This reflects intense competition among large language models, where small differences in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, specialized training datasets, and post-training optimizations can shift relative standings quickly. Key differentiators include demonstrated performance on complex problem-solving tasks, model scale, and integration of advanced techniques like chain-of-thought reasoning or tool use. With resolution weeks away, upcoming model updates, benchmark releases, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Chinese labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek could alter the ordering, underscoring the uncertainty in fast-evolving AI capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 38%
Z.ai 33.4%
OpenAI 22%
Alibaba 7%
$40,598 Vol.
$40,598 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
38%
Z.ai
33%
OpenAI
17%
Alibaba
7%
Moonshot
3%
Baidu
1%
Anthropic
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meituan
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 38%
Z.ai 33.4%
OpenAI 22%
Alibaba 7%
$40,598 Vol.
$40,598 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
$10,688 Vol.
38%
Z.ai
$2,247 Vol.
33%
OpenAI
$4,084 Vol.
17%
Alibaba
$10,601 Vol.
7%
Moonshot
$1,000 Vol.
3%
Baidu
$834 Vol.
1%
Anthropic
$810 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$1,284 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$1,640 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$787 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$789 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$769 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$806 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$812 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$855 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$632 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$495 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$646 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$422 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$395 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place in Text Arena Math rankings by end of October, with Google at 37.5% and Z.ai at 33.9% leading a broad field of AI labs where no single contender exceeds 50%. This reflects intense competition among large language models, where small differences in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, specialized training datasets, and post-training optimizations can shift relative standings quickly. Key differentiators include demonstrated performance on complex problem-solving tasks, model scale, and integration of advanced techniques like chain-of-thought reasoning or tool use. With resolution weeks away, upcoming model updates, benchmark releases, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Chinese labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek could alter the ordering, underscoring the uncertainty in fast-evolving AI capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$40,598End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third place in Text Arena Math rankings by end of October, with Google at 37.5% and Z.ai at 33.9% leading a broad field of AI labs where no single contender exceeds 50%. This reflects intense competition among large language models, where small differences in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, specialized training datasets, and post-training optimizations can shift relative standings quickly. Key differentiators include demonstrated performance on complex problem-solving tasks, model scale, and integration of advanced techniques like chain-of-thought reasoning or tool use. With resolution weeks away, upcoming model updates, benchmark releases, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Chinese labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek could alter the ordering, underscoring the uncertainty in fast-evolving AI capabilities.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$40,598End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested race for third place in Text Arena Math rankings by end of October, with Google at 37.5% and Z.ai at 33.9% leading a broad field of AI labs where no single contender exceeds 50%. This reflects intense competition among large language models, where small differences in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, specialized training datasets, and post-training optimizations can shift relative standings quickly. Key differentiators include demonstrated performance on complex problem-solving tasks, model scale, and integration of advanced techniques like chain-of-thought reasoning or tool use. With resolution weeks away, upcoming model updates, benchmark releases, or capability demonstrations from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Chinese labs like Alibaba and DeepSeek could alter the ordering, underscoring the uncertainty in fast-evolving AI capabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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