The market's near-certain positioning on a 92-102 million domestic 4-day opening for *The Mandalorian and Grogu* reflects pre-release tracking that consistently pegged the Jon Favreau-directed Star Wars film in the low-to-mid $80 million to low $100 million range for the Memorial Day frame. Strong family appeal tied to Grogu and the established Mandalorian fanbase drove solid presales and theater counts around 4,300 screens, aligning with historical patterns for spin-off entries while falling short of prior Disney-era franchise benchmarks like *Solo*. Mixed critical reception and lingering franchise fatigue tempered upside expectations, keeping higher brackets negligible. An upset outside this band would require either breakout word-of-mouth lifting the four-day total well above $110 million or softer-than-anticipated holiday holds pushing it below $90 million.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office
92-102m 100.0%
<92m <1%
102-112m <1%
112-122m <1%
$935,411 Vol.
$935,411 Vol.
May 26, 2026
<92m
No
92-102m
Yes
102-112m
No
112-122m
No
>122m
No
92-102m 100.0%
<92m <1%
102-112m <1%
112-122m <1%
$935,411 Vol.
$935,411 Vol.
May 26, 2026
<92m
$284,275 Vol.
No
92-102m
$140,238 Vol.
Yes
102-112m
$258,156 Vol.
No
112-122m
$165,561 Vol.
No
>122m
$87,181 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (May 22 - May 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 4-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The market's near-certain positioning on a 92-102 million domestic 4-day opening for *The Mandalorian and Grogu* reflects pre-release tracking that consistently pegged the Jon Favreau-directed Star Wars film in the low-to-mid $80 million to low $100 million range for the Memorial Day frame. Strong family appeal tied to Grogu and the established Mandalorian fanbase drove solid presales and theater counts around 4,300 screens, aligning with historical patterns for spin-off entries while falling short of prior Disney-era franchise benchmarks like *Solo*. Mixed critical reception and lingering franchise fatigue tempered upside expectations, keeping higher brackets negligible. An upset outside this band would require either breakout word-of-mouth lifting the four-day total well above $110 million or softer-than-anticipated holiday holds pushing it below $90 million.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (May 22 - May 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 4-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 4-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
Volume
$935,411End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (May 22 - May 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 4-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.The market's near-certain positioning on a 92-102 million domestic 4-day opening for *The Mandalorian and Grogu* reflects pre-release tracking that consistently pegged the Jon Favreau-directed Star Wars film in the low-to-mid $80 million to low $100 million range for the Memorial Day frame. Strong family appeal tied to Grogu and the established Mandalorian fanbase drove solid presales and theater counts around 4,300 screens, aligning with historical patterns for spin-off entries while falling short of prior Disney-era franchise benchmarks like *Solo*. Mixed critical reception and lingering franchise fatigue tempered upside expectations, keeping higher brackets negligible. An upset outside this band would require either breakout word-of-mouth lifting the four-day total well above $110 million or softer-than-anticipated holiday holds pushing it below $90 million.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Mandalorian and Grogu" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 4-day opening weekend (May 22 - May 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 4-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 4-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$935,411End Date
May 26, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market's near-certain positioning on a 92-102 million domestic 4-day opening for *The Mandalorian and Grogu* reflects pre-release tracking that consistently pegged the Jon Favreau-directed Star Wars film in the low-to-mid $80 million to low $100 million range for the Memorial Day frame. Strong family appeal tied to Grogu and the established Mandalorian fanbase drove solid presales and theater counts around 4,300 screens, aligning with historical patterns for spin-off entries while falling short of prior Disney-era franchise benchmarks like *Solo*. Mixed critical reception and lingering franchise fatigue tempered upside expectations, keeping higher brackets negligible. An upset outside this band would require either breakout word-of-mouth lifting the four-day total well above $110 million or softer-than-anticipated holiday holds pushing it below $90 million.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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