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Politics·US Election

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

Market icon
Politics·US Election

Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner

May 26

May 26

Ken Paxton 61%

John Cornyn 37%

Dawn Buckingham <1%

Beth Van Duyne <1%

Polymarket

$15,296,101 Vol.

Ken Paxton 61%

John Cornyn 37%

Dawn Buckingham <1%

Beth Van Duyne <1%

Polymarket

$15,296,101 Vol.

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Ken Paxton

$4,169,350 Vol.

61%

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John Cornyn

$3,101,727 Vol.

37%

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Dawn Buckingham

$915,807 Vol.

<1%

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Beth Van Duyne

$5,349,524 Vol.

<1%

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Wesley Hunt

$1,759,693 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. Trader consensus favors Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton at 60.5% implied probability to win the Republican Senate primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn on May 26, driven by recent polls showing Paxton leading 53%-37% (Impact Research, March) amid his appeal to the GOP base as a hard-right challenger criticizing Cornyn's establishment record. Following the March 3 primary where neither secured a majority—despite Cornyn's $70 million spending—Paxton has gained momentum from endorsements like CPAC (March 30) and Rep. Burgess Owens (April 8), plus attack ads highlighting Cornyn's absences. President Trump's continued neutrality, despite earlier teases, bolsters Paxton's position, though Cornyn's fundraising edge and incumbency keep him viable at 36.5%; early voting looms as a key turnout test in this closely watched intraparty battle.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$15,296,101
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 10, 2025, 5:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. Trader consensus favors Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton at 60.5% implied probability to win the Republican Senate primary runoff against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn on May 26, driven by recent polls showing Paxton leading 53%-37% (Impact Research, March) amid his appeal to the GOP base as a hard-right challenger criticizing Cornyn's establishment record. Following the March 3 primary where neither secured a majority—despite Cornyn's $70 million spending—Paxton has gained momentum from endorsements like CPAC (March 30) and Rep. Burgess Owens (April 8), plus attack ads highlighting Cornyn's absences. President Trump's continued neutrality, despite earlier teases, bolsters Paxton's position, though Cornyn's fundraising edge and incumbency keep him viable at 36.5%; early voting looms as a key turnout test in this closely watched intraparty battle.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$15,296,101
End Date
May 26, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 10, 2025, 5:11 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ken Paxton" at 61%, followed by "John Cornyn" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $15.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Ken Paxton" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Cornyn" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.