Mayes Middleton holds a strong lead in the Texas attorney general race as the Republican nominee in a state with consistent GOP dominance in statewide contests. His victory in the May 2026 primary runoff over U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, combined with substantial self-funding from oil industry resources, has positioned him ahead in recent polling averages showing a 3- to 5-point edge over Democratic state Sen. Nathan Johnson. The open seat created by Ken Paxton's Senate bid has drawn greater Democratic attention, with Johnson advancing from his own runoff and emphasizing consumer protection and office reforms, yet historical voting patterns and undecided voter shares support trader consensus around Middleton's higher implied probability. Early voting begins in mid-October ahead of the November 3 general election.