Market icon

Tech Release Parlay

Market icon

Tech Release Parlay

<1% chance
Polymarket

$24,517 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$24,517 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download
- OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser
- Apple releases a new AirTag product
- Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public
- Grokipedia is made available to the general public

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf
Volume
$24,517
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Oct 17, 2025, 1:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download - OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser - Apple releases a new AirTag product - Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public - Grokipedia is made available to the general public Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download
- OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser
- Apple releases a new AirTag product
- Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public
- Grokipedia is made available to the general public

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf
Volume
$24,517
End Date
Dec 31, 2025
Market Opened
Oct 17, 2025, 1:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET: - Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download - OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser - Apple releases a new AirTag product - Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public - Grokipedia is made available to the general public Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met. Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Tech Release Parlay" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Tech Release Parlay" has generated $24.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 17, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Tech Release Parlay," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Tech Release Parlay" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Tech Release Parlay" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.