Recent Swedish opinion polls ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election show the Sweden Democrats holding steady support near 19%, down modestly from their 20.5% result in 2022. Aggregates from multiple firms place SD between 18.3% and 20.0% in surveys conducted through early September, with the party remaining the largest within the right-leaning Tidö bloc despite a narrow overall lead for the centre-left opposition. Traders have priced the 18-20% band highest because this range aligns with the latest polling averages and reflects limited movement in SD's core voter base on immigration and law-and-order issues. The modest probability on 20%+ captures residual upside if turnout or late shifts favor the right bloc, while sub-18% outcomes appear less likely given the consistency of recent data. The tight national race between blocs adds uncertainty to final seat projections but has not materially altered SD's individual vote-share trajectory in the closing days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated18-20% 49%
20%+ 34%
16-18% 18%
<16% 2.8%
$79,034 Vol.
$79,034 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
<16%
3%
16-18%
18%
18-20%
49%
20%+
34%
18-20% 49%
20%+ 34%
16-18% 18%
<16% 2.8%
$79,034 Vol.
$79,034 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
<16%
$7,904 Vol.
3%
16-18%
$14,233 Vol.
18%
18-20%
$22,514 Vol.
49%
20%+
$34,382 Vol.
34%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election show the Sweden Democrats holding steady support near 19%, down modestly from their 20.5% result in 2022. Aggregates from multiple firms place SD between 18.3% and 20.0% in surveys conducted through early September, with the party remaining the largest within the right-leaning Tidö bloc despite a narrow overall lead for the centre-left opposition. Traders have priced the 18-20% band highest because this range aligns with the latest polling averages and reflects limited movement in SD's core voter base on immigration and law-and-order issues. The modest probability on 20%+ captures residual upside if turnout or late shifts favor the right bloc, while sub-18% outcomes appear less likely given the consistency of recent data. The tight national race between blocs adds uncertainty to final seat projections but has not materially altered SD's individual vote-share trajectory in the closing days.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ET
Volume
$79,034End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election show the Sweden Democrats holding steady support near 19%, down modestly from their 20.5% result in 2022. Aggregates from multiple firms place SD between 18.3% and 20.0% in surveys conducted through early September, with the party remaining the largest within the right-leaning Tidö bloc despite a narrow overall lead for the centre-left opposition. Traders have priced the 18-20% band highest because this range aligns with the latest polling averages and reflects limited movement in SD's core voter base on immigration and law-and-order issues. The modest probability on 20%+ captures residual upside if turnout or late shifts favor the right bloc, while sub-18% outcomes appear less likely given the consistency of recent data. The tight national race between blocs adds uncertainty to final seat projections but has not materially altered SD's individual vote-share trajectory in the closing days.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$79,034End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:43 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Swedish opinion polls ahead of the September 13 parliamentary election show the Sweden Democrats holding steady support near 19%, down modestly from their 20.5% result in 2022. Aggregates from multiple firms place SD between 18.3% and 20.0% in surveys conducted through early September, with the party remaining the largest within the right-leaning Tidö bloc despite a narrow overall lead for the centre-left opposition. Traders have priced the 18-20% band highest because this range aligns with the latest polling averages and reflects limited movement in SD's core voter base on immigration and law-and-order issues. The modest probability on 20%+ captures residual upside if turnout or late shifts favor the right bloc, while sub-18% outcomes appear less likely given the consistency of recent data. The tight national race between blocs adds uncertainty to final seat projections but has not materially altered SD's individual vote-share trajectory in the closing days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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