**Recent Swedish opinion polls show Socialdemokraterna (S) support averaging 28–29% in the final days before the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, well below the 31% threshold.** Aggregators and individual surveys from firms including Novus, Demoskop, Ipsos, Indikator Opinion, and Verian place S between roughly 26% and 30% in September fieldwork, down slightly from earlier 2026 readings and from its 30.3% result in 2022. This positioning reflects sustained voter shifts toward other parties in both blocs amid a tightening overall race, with the centre-left opposition bloc holding only a narrow lead. Late-campaign polling has shown modest S declines or stability in the high 20s, with no recent surge sufficient to approach or exceed 31%. Traders have priced the “Under” outcome at 82% to reflect this consistent polling evidence and the limited time remaining for material movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
15% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Over
15% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish opinion polls show Socialdemokraterna (S) support averaging 28–29% in the final days before the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, well below the 31% threshold.** Aggregators and individual surveys from firms including Novus, Demoskop, Ipsos, Indikator Opinion, and Verian place S between roughly 26% and 30% in September fieldwork, down slightly from earlier 2026 readings and from its 30.3% result in 2022.
This positioning reflects sustained voter shifts toward other parties in both blocs amid a tightening overall race, with the centre-left opposition bloc holding only a narrow lead. Late-campaign polling has shown modest S declines or stability in the high 20s, with no recent surge sufficient to approach or exceed 31%. Traders have priced the “Under” outcome at 82% to reflect this consistent polling evidence and the limited time remaining for material movement.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ET
Volume
$1,333End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent Swedish opinion polls show Socialdemokraterna (S) support averaging 28–29% in the final days before the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, well below the 31% threshold.** Aggregators and individual surveys from firms including Novus, Demoskop, Ipsos, Indikator Opinion, and Verian place S between roughly 26% and 30% in September fieldwork, down slightly from earlier 2026 readings and from its 30.3% result in 2022.
This positioning reflects sustained voter shifts toward other parties in both blocs amid a tightening overall race, with the centre-left opposition bloc holding only a narrow lead. Late-campaign polling has shown modest S declines or stability in the high 20s, with no recent surge sufficient to approach or exceed 31%. Traders have priced the “Under” outcome at 82% to reflect this consistent polling evidence and the limited time remaining for material movement.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins at least 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) wins less than 31% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$1,333End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent Swedish opinion polls show Socialdemokraterna (S) support averaging 28–29% in the final days before the September 13, 2026, parliamentary election, well below the 31% threshold.** Aggregators and individual surveys from firms including Novus, Demoskop, Ipsos, Indikator Opinion, and Verian place S between roughly 26% and 30% in September fieldwork, down slightly from earlier 2026 readings and from its 30.3% result in 2022. This positioning reflects sustained voter shifts toward other parties in both blocs amid a tightening overall race, with the centre-left opposition bloc holding only a narrow lead. Late-campaign polling has shown modest S declines or stability in the high 20s, with no recent surge sufficient to approach or exceed 31%. Traders have priced the “Under” outcome at 82% to reflect this consistent polling evidence and the limited time remaining for material movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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