**Recent polling averages place Miljöpartiet (MP) support near or slightly below 7 percent in the final days before Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election.** Aggregates from multiple firms show the Greens at roughly 7.2–7.4 percent over the past month, with individual surveys ranging from 5.6 percent to 8.6 percent. The party has not recorded a sustained surge despite the left bloc’s narrow lead in bloc-level polling, and its results have fluctuated without clear momentum from campaign events or policy announcements. Traders therefore assign the “under 7 percent” outcome a 67.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the latest survey distribution and the absence of last-minute developments that would reliably lift Green support above the threshold. The market reflects the current consensus on MP’s standing rather than a forecast of the final result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
33% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Over
33% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent polling averages place Miljöpartiet (MP) support near or slightly below 7 percent in the final days before Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election.** Aggregates from multiple firms show the Greens at roughly 7.2–7.4 percent over the past month, with individual surveys ranging from 5.6 percent to 8.6 percent. The party has not recorded a sustained surge despite the left bloc’s narrow lead in bloc-level polling, and its results have fluctuated without clear momentum from campaign events or policy announcements. Traders therefore assign the “under 7 percent” outcome a 67.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the latest survey distribution and the absence of last-minute developments that would reliably lift Green support above the threshold. The market reflects the current consensus on MP’s standing rather than a forecast of the final result.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$933End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).**Recent polling averages place Miljöpartiet (MP) support near or slightly below 7 percent in the final days before Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election.** Aggregates from multiple firms show the Greens at roughly 7.2–7.4 percent over the past month, with individual surveys ranging from 5.6 percent to 8.6 percent. The party has not recorded a sustained surge despite the left bloc’s narrow lead in bloc-level polling, and its results have fluctuated without clear momentum from campaign events or policy announcements. Traders therefore assign the “under 7 percent” outcome a 67.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the latest survey distribution and the absence of last-minute developments that would reliably lift Green support above the threshold. The market reflects the current consensus on MP’s standing rather than a forecast of the final result.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$933End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling averages place Miljöpartiet (MP) support near or slightly below 7 percent in the final days before Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election.** Aggregates from multiple firms show the Greens at roughly 7.2–7.4 percent over the past month, with individual surveys ranging from 5.6 percent to 8.6 percent. The party has not recorded a sustained surge despite the left bloc’s narrow lead in bloc-level polling, and its results have fluctuated without clear momentum from campaign events or policy announcements. Traders therefore assign the “under 7 percent” outcome a 67.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the latest survey distribution and the absence of last-minute developments that would reliably lift Green support above the threshold. The market reflects the current consensus on MP’s standing rather than a forecast of the final result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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