Recent Swedish opinion polls place Kristdemokraterna support near or slightly above the 4% parliamentary threshold and around the 6% mark, with aggregates showing a 30-day average near 6.6% and individual surveys from early September ranging from 5.5% to 7.9%. The party's position within the right-leaning Tidö bloc has benefited from the broader tightening of the election race ahead of the September 13 vote, as the governing side narrows the opposition's lead on issues including crime and immigration policy. Party leader Ebba Busch's outreach efforts have coincided with modest gains in some late polls, though results remain sensitive to turnout and final-week shifts among smaller parties. This polling stability underpins traders' consensus on the over-6% outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
67% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Over
67% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls place Kristdemokraterna support near or slightly above the 4% parliamentary threshold and around the 6% mark, with aggregates showing a 30-day average near 6.6% and individual surveys from early September ranging from 5.5% to 7.9%. The party's position within the right-leaning Tidö bloc has benefited from the broader tightening of the election race ahead of the September 13 vote, as the governing side narrows the opposition's lead on issues including crime and immigration policy. Party leader Ebba Busch's outreach efforts have coincided with modest gains in some late polls, though results remain sensitive to turnout and final-week shifts among smaller parties. This polling stability underpins traders' consensus on the over-6% outcome.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ET
Volume
$1,998End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent Swedish opinion polls place Kristdemokraterna support near or slightly above the 4% parliamentary threshold and around the 6% mark, with aggregates showing a 30-day average near 6.6% and individual surveys from early September ranging from 5.5% to 7.9%. The party's position within the right-leaning Tidö bloc has benefited from the broader tightening of the election race ahead of the September 13 vote, as the governing side narrows the opposition's lead on issues including crime and immigration policy. Party leader Ebba Busch's outreach efforts have coincided with modest gains in some late polls, though results remain sensitive to turnout and final-week shifts among smaller parties. This polling stability underpins traders' consensus on the over-6% outcome.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins at least 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins less than 6% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$1,998End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Swedish opinion polls place Kristdemokraterna support near or slightly above the 4% parliamentary threshold and around the 6% mark, with aggregates showing a 30-day average near 6.6% and individual surveys from early September ranging from 5.5% to 7.9%. The party's position within the right-leaning Tidö bloc has benefited from the broader tightening of the election race ahead of the September 13 vote, as the governing side narrows the opposition's lead on issues including crime and immigration policy. Party leader Ebba Busch's outreach efforts have coincided with modest gains in some late polls, though results remain sensitive to turnout and final-week shifts among smaller parties. This polling stability underpins traders' consensus on the over-6% outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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