**No Supreme Court vacancy is expected in 2026, with traders assigning roughly three-quarters probability to that outcome.** The court remains at its full nine-member complement as of mid-September, with no announced retirements, resignations, or health-related departures among the justices. The dominant recent development was Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 statement confirming he intends to serve at least through the next term, directly addressing and dismissing earlier speculation fueled by a retracted June report. At age 76, Alito joins the oldest justice, Clarence Thomas (78), in showing no public signs of stepping down, while younger members including Chief Justice John Roberts and the five other associate justices have likewise offered no indications of imminent departures. Absent any scheduled confirmation processes or procedural triggers before December 31, the current trader consensus aligns with the lack of concrete catalysts that historically precede vacancies.