**Iran’s IRGC re-declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial traffic on June 20, 2026, in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon and perceived U.S. non-compliance with a fragile interim ceasefire.** This followed a February 28 closure that has kept traffic well below pre-war norms for nearly four months, with daily transits often limited to a fraction of the typical 100+ vessels and heavy reliance on escorted or alternative routes. Recent shipping data show a modest pickup—dozens of tankers moved through in recent days after the U.S.-Iran deal—but volumes remain far short of normal, with operators citing ongoing risks and Iranian warnings against unauthorized passages. Ship-tracking firms describe patterns resembling a “virtual blockade” baseline rather than full resumption, and Iran continues to assert approval requirements over key lanes. These developments sustain trader skepticism that traffic will normalize within the next twelve days. Persistent IRGC enforcement signals, active regional tensions, and cautious insurer/owner behavior create significant barriers to rapid recovery, outweighing incremental gains from the interim agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
$2,203,742 Vol.
$2,203,742 Vol.
Jul 7, 2026
$2,203,742 Vol.
$2,203,742 Vol.
Jul 7, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 7, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Iran’s IRGC re-declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial traffic on June 20, 2026, in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon and perceived U.S. non-compliance with a fragile interim ceasefire.** This followed a February 28 closure that has kept traffic well below pre-war norms for nearly four months, with daily transits often limited to a fraction of the typical 100+ vessels and heavy reliance on escorted or alternative routes.
Recent shipping data show a modest pickup—dozens of tankers moved through in recent days after the U.S.-Iran deal—but volumes remain far short of normal, with operators citing ongoing risks and Iranian warnings against unauthorized passages. Ship-tracking firms describe patterns resembling a “virtual blockade” baseline rather than full resumption, and Iran continues to assert approval requirements over key lanes.
These developments sustain trader skepticism that traffic will normalize within the next twelve days. Persistent IRGC enforcement signals, active regional tensions, and cautious insurer/owner behavior create significant barriers to rapid recovery, outweighing incremental gains from the interim agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 7, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 7, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Jun 25, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,203,742End Date
Jul 7, 2026Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 7, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Iran’s IRGC re-declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial traffic on June 20, 2026, in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon and perceived U.S. non-compliance with a fragile interim ceasefire.** This followed a February 28 closure that has kept traffic well below pre-war norms for nearly four months, with daily transits often limited to a fraction of the typical 100+ vessels and heavy reliance on escorted or alternative routes.
Recent shipping data show a modest pickup—dozens of tankers moved through in recent days after the U.S.-Iran deal—but volumes remain far short of normal, with operators citing ongoing risks and Iranian warnings against unauthorized passages. Ship-tracking firms describe patterns resembling a “virtual blockade” baseline rather than full resumption, and Iran continues to assert approval requirements over key lanes.
These developments sustain trader skepticism that traffic will normalize within the next twelve days. Persistent IRGC enforcement signals, active regional tensions, and cautious insurer/owner behavior create significant barriers to rapid recovery, outweighing incremental gains from the interim agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 7, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 7, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$2,203,742End Date
Jul 7, 2026Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Iran’s IRGC re-declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to commercial traffic on June 20, 2026, in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon and perceived U.S. non-compliance with a fragile interim ceasefire.** This followed a February 28 closure that has kept traffic well below pre-war norms for nearly four months, with daily transits often limited to a fraction of the typical 100+ vessels and heavy reliance on escorted or alternative routes. Recent shipping data show a modest pickup—dozens of tankers moved through in recent days after the U.S.-Iran deal—but volumes remain far short of normal, with operators citing ongoing risks and Iranian warnings against unauthorized passages. Ship-tracking firms describe patterns resembling a “virtual blockade” baseline rather than full resumption, and Iran continues to assert approval requirements over key lanes. These developments sustain trader skepticism that traffic will normalize within the next twelve days. Persistent IRGC enforcement signals, active regional tensions, and cautious insurer/owner behavior create significant barriers to rapid recovery, outweighing incremental gains from the interim agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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