Ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and associated Iranian military measures have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely restricted since late February 2026, with daily transits remaining in the low teens or single digits through early August—well below pre-crisis norms of roughly 60 vessels. Iranian announcements of selective or full closure, combined with threats against vessels linked to the U.S., Israel, and allies, plus reported attacks, have sustained the disruption through July 31 and beyond. This extended blockade explains the 100% trader consensus on the “No” outcome. De-escalation via diplomatic agreements, verified large-scale resumption of tanker movements, or formal Iranian reversal of restrictions could still alter resolution if confirmed before final settlement.