**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has eased immediate risks but has not yet resolved the practical barriers to full traffic recovery.** The Strait of Hormuz has seen severely restricted commercial shipping since late February 2026 amid the Iran war, with Iran declaring closures or imposing threats on transits and the US enforcing a naval presence and blockade elements. Daily transits remain a small fraction of pre-crisis levels (typically under 10 vessels versus over 100 normally), with hundreds of ships stranded and flows limited to isolated early crossings or LNG movements. A US-Iran framework agreement and memorandum of understanding, announced around June 14–15 and set for formal steps around June 19, include provisions to reopen the waterway, end hostilities, and ease some sanctions. This has prompted modest optimism and some traffic pickup via safer lanes. However, shippers cite ongoing requirements for mine clearance, elevated war-risk insurance, verified safety assurances, and rebuilding confidence as factors likely to delay meaningful normalization. Industry estimates point to weeks or months for recovery to even half pre-crisis volumes, with full normal levels viewed as more probable later in the summer or beyond. Traders price the July 15 resolution date accordingly, viewing the timeline as too tight given these logistical and security hurdles despite the diplomatic breakthrough.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
$11,792,334 Vol.
$11,792,334 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
$11,792,334 Vol.
$11,792,334 Vol.
Jul 15, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has eased immediate risks but has not yet resolved the practical barriers to full traffic recovery.**
The Strait of Hormuz has seen severely restricted commercial shipping since late February 2026 amid the Iran war, with Iran declaring closures or imposing threats on transits and the US enforcing a naval presence and blockade elements. Daily transits remain a small fraction of pre-crisis levels (typically under 10 vessels versus over 100 normally), with hundreds of ships stranded and flows limited to isolated early crossings or LNG movements.
A US-Iran framework agreement and memorandum of understanding, announced around June 14–15 and set for formal steps around June 19, include provisions to reopen the waterway, end hostilities, and ease some sanctions. This has prompted modest optimism and some traffic pickup via safer lanes. However, shippers cite ongoing requirements for mine clearance, elevated war-risk insurance, verified safety assurances, and rebuilding confidence as factors likely to delay meaningful normalization. Industry estimates point to weeks or months for recovery to even half pre-crisis volumes, with full normal levels viewed as more probable later in the summer or beyond.
Traders price the July 15 resolution date accordingly, viewing the timeline as too tight given these logistical and security hurdles despite the diplomatic breakthrough.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$11,792,334End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has eased immediate risks but has not yet resolved the practical barriers to full traffic recovery.**
The Strait of Hormuz has seen severely restricted commercial shipping since late February 2026 amid the Iran war, with Iran declaring closures or imposing threats on transits and the US enforcing a naval presence and blockade elements. Daily transits remain a small fraction of pre-crisis levels (typically under 10 vessels versus over 100 normally), with hundreds of ships stranded and flows limited to isolated early crossings or LNG movements.
A US-Iran framework agreement and memorandum of understanding, announced around June 14–15 and set for formal steps around June 19, include provisions to reopen the waterway, end hostilities, and ease some sanctions. This has prompted modest optimism and some traffic pickup via safer lanes. However, shippers cite ongoing requirements for mine clearance, elevated war-risk insurance, verified safety assurances, and rebuilding confidence as factors likely to delay meaningful normalization. Industry estimates point to weeks or months for recovery to even half pre-crisis volumes, with full normal levels viewed as more probable later in the summer or beyond.
Traders price the July 15 resolution date accordingly, viewing the timeline as too tight given these logistical and security hurdles despite the diplomatic breakthrough.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$11,792,334End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has eased immediate risks but has not yet resolved the practical barriers to full traffic recovery.** The Strait of Hormuz has seen severely restricted commercial shipping since late February 2026 amid the Iran war, with Iran declaring closures or imposing threats on transits and the US enforcing a naval presence and blockade elements. Daily transits remain a small fraction of pre-crisis levels (typically under 10 vessels versus over 100 normally), with hundreds of ships stranded and flows limited to isolated early crossings or LNG movements. A US-Iran framework agreement and memorandum of understanding, announced around June 14–15 and set for formal steps around June 19, include provisions to reopen the waterway, end hostilities, and ease some sanctions. This has prompted modest optimism and some traffic pickup via safer lanes. However, shippers cite ongoing requirements for mine clearance, elevated war-risk insurance, verified safety assurances, and rebuilding confidence as factors likely to delay meaningful normalization. Industry estimates point to weeks or months for recovery to even half pre-crisis volumes, with full normal levels viewed as more probable later in the summer or beyond. Traders price the July 15 resolution date accordingly, viewing the timeline as too tight given these logistical and security hurdles despite the diplomatic breakthrough.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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