**Ongoing military tensions and Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress shipping volumes far below normal levels, supporting the market-implied 82.5% probability that traffic will not return to pre-crisis norms by June 30, 2026.** Since late February 2026, Iran has blocked or severely restricted transit through the critical oil chokepoint in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes, reducing daily transits to roughly 2–7 vessels versus a typical 60. Current throughput sits at about 3% of average, with live monitoring confirming the waterway remains effectively closed 106 days into the crisis. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets in early June prompted Tehran to reaffirm a full closure to commercial traffic on June 11, while limited passages are allowed only for vessels coordinating directly with Iranian forces—excluding those linked to adversaries. These developments, combined with stalled negotiations and persistent drone incidents, indicate that meaningful de-escalation and full resumption of unimpeded flows are unlikely within the remaining two weeks. Traders price in the high barriers to rapid normalization given the strait’s strategic importance for global energy supplies and the absence of verifiable progress toward unrestricted access.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
$20,869,644 Vol.
$20,869,644 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$20,869,644 Vol.
$20,869,644 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing military tensions and Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress shipping volumes far below normal levels, supporting the market-implied 82.5% probability that traffic will not return to pre-crisis norms by June 30, 2026.**
Since late February 2026, Iran has blocked or severely restricted transit through the critical oil chokepoint in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes, reducing daily transits to roughly 2–7 vessels versus a typical 60. Current throughput sits at about 3% of average, with live monitoring confirming the waterway remains effectively closed 106 days into the crisis. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets in early June prompted Tehran to reaffirm a full closure to commercial traffic on June 11, while limited passages are allowed only for vessels coordinating directly with Iranian forces—excluding those linked to adversaries.
These developments, combined with stalled negotiations and persistent drone incidents, indicate that meaningful de-escalation and full resumption of unimpeded flows are unlikely within the remaining two weeks. Traders price in the high barriers to rapid normalization given the strait’s strategic importance for global energy supplies and the absence of verifiable progress toward unrestricted access.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$20,869,644End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing military tensions and Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress shipping volumes far below normal levels, supporting the market-implied 82.5% probability that traffic will not return to pre-crisis norms by June 30, 2026.**
Since late February 2026, Iran has blocked or severely restricted transit through the critical oil chokepoint in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes, reducing daily transits to roughly 2–7 vessels versus a typical 60. Current throughput sits at about 3% of average, with live monitoring confirming the waterway remains effectively closed 106 days into the crisis. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets in early June prompted Tehran to reaffirm a full closure to commercial traffic on June 11, while limited passages are allowed only for vessels coordinating directly with Iranian forces—excluding those linked to adversaries.
These developments, combined with stalled negotiations and persistent drone incidents, indicate that meaningful de-escalation and full resumption of unimpeded flows are unlikely within the remaining two weeks. Traders price in the high barriers to rapid normalization given the strait’s strategic importance for global energy supplies and the absence of verifiable progress toward unrestricted access.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$20,894,019End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing military tensions and Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress shipping volumes far below normal levels, supporting the market-implied 82.5% probability that traffic will not return to pre-crisis norms by June 30, 2026.** Since late February 2026, Iran has blocked or severely restricted transit through the critical oil chokepoint in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes, reducing daily transits to roughly 2–7 vessels versus a typical 60. Current throughput sits at about 3% of average, with live monitoring confirming the waterway remains effectively closed 106 days into the crisis. Recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets in early June prompted Tehran to reaffirm a full closure to commercial traffic on June 11, while limited passages are allowed only for vessels coordinating directly with Iranian forces—excluding those linked to adversaries. These developments, combined with stalled negotiations and persistent drone incidents, indicate that meaningful de-escalation and full resumption of unimpeded flows are unlikely within the remaining two weeks. Traders price in the high barriers to rapid normalization given the strait’s strategic importance for global energy supplies and the absence of verifiable progress toward unrestricted access.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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