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icon for SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?

SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?

icon for SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?

SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$7,991 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$7,991 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading is above its IPO offer price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The official opening and IPO prices as listed by the primary exchange and will be considered the opening and IPO share prices for the purposes of this market. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. If no official opening price for the first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX’s record $75 billion IPO, priced at $135 per share on June 11, opened at $150 the next day on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX amid extraordinary demand exceeding $250 billion from institutions and retail investors. Traders assign near-certain odds to an opening price above the IPO level because of proven Starlink revenue growth, the company’s launch dominance, its February merger with xAI for orbital AI infrastructure, and Elon Musk’s history of high-valuation debuts. The oversubscribed book and positive sentiment around upcoming Starship milestones and space data-center plans reinforced expectations of a strong debut pop. While last-minute market volatility or regulatory hiccups could theoretically influence trading mechanics, the scale of confirmed orders and June 12 execution make reversal of the outcome highly improbable.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading is above its IPO offer price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The official opening and IPO prices as listed by the primary exchange and will be considered the opening and IPO share prices for the purposes of this market.

If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

If no official opening price for the first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$7,991
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:31 AM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading is above its IPO offer price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The official opening and IPO prices as listed by the primary exchange and will be considered the opening and IPO share prices for the purposes of this market. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. If no official opening price for the first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading is above its IPO offer price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The official opening and IPO prices as listed by the primary exchange and will be considered the opening and IPO share prices for the purposes of this market. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. If no official opening price for the first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX’s record $75 billion IPO, priced at $135 per share on June 11, opened at $150 the next day on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX amid extraordinary demand exceeding $250 billion from institutions and retail investors. Traders assign near-certain odds to an opening price above the IPO level because of proven Starlink revenue growth, the company’s launch dominance, its February merger with xAI for orbital AI infrastructure, and Elon Musk’s history of high-valuation debuts. The oversubscribed book and positive sentiment around upcoming Starship milestones and space data-center plans reinforced expectations of a strong debut pop. While last-minute market volatility or regulatory hiccups could theoretically influence trading mechanics, the scale of confirmed orders and June 12 execution make reversal of the outcome highly improbable.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading is above its IPO offer price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The official opening and IPO prices as listed by the primary exchange and will be considered the opening and IPO share prices for the purposes of this market.

If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

If no official opening price for the first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$7,991
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 1:31 AM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if SpaceX's opening share price on its first day of trading is above its IPO offer price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The official opening and IPO prices as listed by the primary exchange and will be considered the opening and IPO share prices for the purposes of this market. If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 50-50. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. If no official opening price for the first day of trading is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official opening price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.