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Politics·US Election

South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

icon for South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
Politics·US Election

South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

Rhoden 20%+ 100.0%

Rhoden 5–10% 2.0%

Rhoden 15–20% <1%

Rhoden 10–15% <1%

Polymarket

$8,111 Vol.

Rhoden 20%+ 100.0%

Rhoden 5–10% 2.0%

Rhoden 15–20% <1%

Rhoden 10–15% <1%

Polymarket

$8,111 Vol.

Rhoden 20%+

$3,419 Vol.

Yes

Rhoden 15–20%

$729 Vol.

No

Rhoden 10–15%

$715 Vol.

No

Rhoden 5–10%

$463 Vol.

No

Rhoden <5%

$484 Vol.

No

Doeden <5%

$567 Vol.

No

Doeden 5–10%

$672 Vol.

No

Doeden 10–15%

$360 Vol.

No

Doeden 15–20%

$342 Vol.

No

Doeden 20%+

$360 Vol.

No

The South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for July 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the South Dakota Republican Gubernatorial Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Dakota, such as official statewide results published by the South Dakota Secretary of State (https://sdsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Larry Rhoden secured the Republican nomination for South Dakota governor in the July 28, 2026, runoff after no candidate reached the 35% threshold in the June primary. Official results showed Rhoden defeating Toby Doeden by a 42-point margin, capturing roughly 71% of the vote statewide and carrying all but two counties. This outcome aligned with an Emerson College poll earlier that month projecting a 30-point lead for the incumbent, who succeeded Kristi Noem in 2025. Trader consensus on a Rhoden margin exceeding 20 points reflects the confirmed vote totals and limited remaining procedural steps before certification. A reversal would require an unprecedented recount or widespread tabulation error, neither of which has emerged in county-level reporting.

The South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for July 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the South Dakota Republican Gubernatorial Primary runoff election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Dakota, such as official statewide results published by the South Dakota Secretary of State (https://sdsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$8,111
End Date
Jul 28, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for July 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the South Dakota Republican Gubernatorial Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Dakota, such as official statewide results published by the South Dakota Secretary of State (https://sdsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

The South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for July 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the South Dakota Republican Gubernatorial Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Dakota, such as official statewide results published by the South Dakota Secretary of State (https://sdsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Larry Rhoden secured the Republican nomination for South Dakota governor in the July 28, 2026, runoff after no candidate reached the 35% threshold in the June primary. Official results showed Rhoden defeating Toby Doeden by a 42-point margin, capturing roughly 71% of the vote statewide and carrying all but two counties. This outcome aligned with an Emerson College poll earlier that month projecting a 30-point lead for the incumbent, who succeeded Kristi Noem in 2025. Trader consensus on a Rhoden margin exceeding 20 points reflects the confirmed vote totals and limited remaining procedural steps before certification. A reversal would require an unprecedented recount or widespread tabulation error, neither of which has emerged in county-level reporting.

The South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for July 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the South Dakota Republican Gubernatorial Primary runoff election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official..

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Dakota, such as official statewide results published by the South Dakota Secretary of State (https://sdsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$8,111
End Date
Jul 28, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The South Dakota Gubernatorial Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for July 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the South Dakota Republican Gubernatorial Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Dakota, such as official statewide results published by the South Dakota Secretary of State (https://sdsos.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Rhoden 20%+" at 100%, followed by "Rhoden 15–20%" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory" is "Rhoden 20%+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rhoden 15–20%" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "South Dakota Governor Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.