**Darline Graham Nordone’s narrow Republican runoff victory over Rep. Ralph Norman on August 25, 2026, produced a final margin of roughly 5 percentage points (52.5%–47.5%), driving overwhelming trader consensus on a sub-5% outcome for the special Senate primary to succeed her late brother Lindsey Graham.** President Trump’s intensive late-cycle involvement—including a Myrtle Beach rally and heavy spending by his MAGA Inc. super PAC on turnout operations—proved decisive in a compressed two-week campaign, helping Nordone outperform Norman in eastern and coastal counties while Norman held his upstate base. Nordone’s interim appointment by Gov. Henry McMaster and the family name recognition offset attacks on her limited elected experience, while Norman’s congressional record and outside support failed to close the gap despite substantial self-funding. The result aligns closely with historical patterns in low-turnout special primaries where late momentum and organizational spending can compress margins. A realistic shift in the market outcome would require final certified results or a recount to move the margin materially above 5 points, an outcome that appears improbable given the near-complete vote counts and absence of widespread irregularities reported to date.