The South African Reserve Bank’s unanimous 25 basis-point repo rate hike to 7.25% on September 23, 2026, drove the near-certain market-implied odds of an increase, as traders priced in the central bank’s response to renewed inflationary pressures. Headline CPI rose to 4.4% year-over-year in August amid surging fuel costs tied to the Iran conflict and elevated oil prices, prompting the SARB to revise near-term inflation forecasts higher and project a return to its 3% target only toward the end of 2027. This hawkish shift aligned with economist consensus and reflected the committee’s focus on anchoring expectations amid supply shocks, despite softer Q2 GDP and downside growth risks. A sharp reversal in energy prices or unexpectedly weak domestic data could still introduce volatility around future meetings, though the current stance appears firmly established.