Inter Milan’s status as defending champions and early frontrunners stems from a balanced squad featuring proven goal threats like Lautaro Martínez alongside defensive reinforcements such as John Stones, supporting their 58% implied probability. Roma’s strong start—topping the table with just three goals conceded in five matches—has kept them at 17% as the clearest challenger, while Juventus, AC Milan, and Como sit in the 5-8% range amid solid early results and squad investments. Multiple clubs remain within striking distance after five rounds because Serie A depth, fixture congestion, and potential mid-season form swings compress probabilities for the rest of the field in this extended title race.