Google leads trader consensus at 63% implied probability for second place in Text Arena Math by end of October, reflecting its consistent #2 lab ranking behind Anthropic's Claude models on recent arena.ai leaderboards. Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4/5 variants maintain top math Elo scores through superior chain-of-thought reasoning and benchmark performance, while Google's Gemini 3.x Flash and Pro releases deliver competitive results in crowdsourced votes without overtaking the leader. OpenAI's GPT-5 series and other labs trail further back amid slower recent gains in this category. Resolution hinges on the October 31 leaderboard snapshot, with limited catalysts expected before then.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 64%
Anthropic 13%
OpenAI 11%
Alibaba 4%
$37,848 Vol.
$37,848 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
64%
Anthropic
13%
OpenAI
11%
Alibaba
4%
Z.ai
3%
Moonshot
2%
Meta
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Google 64%
Anthropic 13%
OpenAI 11%
Alibaba 4%
$37,848 Vol.
$37,848 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
$26,151 Vol.
64%
Anthropic
$1,526 Vol.
13%
OpenAI
$746 Vol.
11%
Alibaba
$1,215 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$563 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$466 Vol.
2%
Meta
$476 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$471 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$463 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$520 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$531 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$462 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$814 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$528 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$513 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$516 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$662 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$521 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$370 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$336 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads trader consensus at 63% implied probability for second place in Text Arena Math by end of October, reflecting its consistent #2 lab ranking behind Anthropic's Claude models on recent arena.ai leaderboards. Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4/5 variants maintain top math Elo scores through superior chain-of-thought reasoning and benchmark performance, while Google's Gemini 3.x Flash and Pro releases deliver competitive results in crowdsourced votes without overtaking the leader. OpenAI's GPT-5 series and other labs trail further back amid slower recent gains in this category. Resolution hinges on the October 31 leaderboard snapshot, with limited catalysts expected before then.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$37,848End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google leads trader consensus at 63% implied probability for second place in Text Arena Math by end of October, reflecting its consistent #2 lab ranking behind Anthropic's Claude models on recent arena.ai leaderboards. Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4/5 variants maintain top math Elo scores through superior chain-of-thought reasoning and benchmark performance, while Google's Gemini 3.x Flash and Pro releases deliver competitive results in crowdsourced votes without overtaking the leader. OpenAI's GPT-5 series and other labs trail further back amid slower recent gains in this category. Resolution hinges on the October 31 leaderboard snapshot, with limited catalysts expected before then.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$37,848End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google leads trader consensus at 63% implied probability for second place in Text Arena Math by end of October, reflecting its consistent #2 lab ranking behind Anthropic's Claude models on recent arena.ai leaderboards. Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4/5 variants maintain top math Elo scores through superior chain-of-thought reasoning and benchmark performance, while Google's Gemini 3.x Flash and Pro releases deliver competitive results in crowdsourced votes without overtaking the leader. OpenAI's GPT-5 series and other labs trail further back amid slower recent gains in this category. Resolution hinges on the October 31 leaderboard snapshot, with limited catalysts expected before then.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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