Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, leaving trader consensus split on the second-best position by end of September 2026. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout on September 3 delivered frontier-level agentic and cybersecurity benchmarks, while Anthropic updated Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos variants with gains on Terminal-Bench and cost efficiency. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash followed days later, narrowing capability gaps in coding and multimodal tasks. Leaderboards show Anthropic and OpenAI clustered at the top, with Google, Meta, and others trailing closely on intelligence indices and practical deployment metrics. This rapid cadence, coupled with Chinese labs advancing open-weight models, sustains uncertainty and supports evenly matched implied probabilities across multiple contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 34%
OpenAI 19.6%
Meta 15.8%
Anthropic 12.0%
$81,343 Vol.
$81,343 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
34%
OpenAI
20%
Meta
16%
Anthropic
12%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 34%
OpenAI 19.6%
Meta 15.8%
Anthropic 12.0%
$81,343 Vol.
$81,343 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$20,549 Vol.
34%
OpenAI
$6,657 Vol.
20%
Meta
$8,051 Vol.
16%
Anthropic
$4,596 Vol.
12%
Alibaba
$14,169 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$3,573 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$2,988 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$3,121 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$2,680 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$2,122 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,425 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$534 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,128 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,430 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$1,113 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,452 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,442 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,024 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,507 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$477 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,306 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, leaving trader consensus split on the second-best position by end of September 2026. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout on September 3 delivered frontier-level agentic and cybersecurity benchmarks, while Anthropic updated Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos variants with gains on Terminal-Bench and cost efficiency. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash followed days later, narrowing capability gaps in coding and multimodal tasks. Leaderboards show Anthropic and OpenAI clustered at the top, with Google, Meta, and others trailing closely on intelligence indices and practical deployment metrics. This rapid cadence, coupled with Chinese labs advancing open-weight models, sustains uncertainty and supports evenly matched implied probabilities across multiple contenders.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$81,343End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, leaving trader consensus split on the second-best position by end of September 2026. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout on September 3 delivered frontier-level agentic and cybersecurity benchmarks, while Anthropic updated Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos variants with gains on Terminal-Bench and cost efficiency. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash followed days later, narrowing capability gaps in coding and multimodal tasks. Leaderboards show Anthropic and OpenAI clustered at the top, with Google, Meta, and others trailing closely on intelligence indices and practical deployment metrics. This rapid cadence, coupled with Chinese labs advancing open-weight models, sustains uncertainty and supports evenly matched implied probabilities across multiple contenders.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$81,343End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have intensified competition among frontier AI labs, leaving trader consensus split on the second-best position by end of September 2026. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout on September 3 delivered frontier-level agentic and cybersecurity benchmarks, while Anthropic updated Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos variants with gains on Terminal-Bench and cost efficiency. Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash followed days later, narrowing capability gaps in coding and multimodal tasks. Leaderboards show Anthropic and OpenAI clustered at the top, with Google, Meta, and others trailing closely on intelligence indices and practical deployment metrics. This rapid cadence, coupled with Chinese labs advancing open-weight models, sustains uncertainty and supports evenly matched implied probabilities across multiple contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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