Traders view Google as the leading contender for second-best AI lab by end of October, with 43.5% market-implied odds reflecting its DeepMind research depth, Gemini model iterations, and tight integration across search, Android, and cloud platforms. Anthropic sits at 24% on the strength of its safety-focused Claude releases and enterprise traction, while Meta at 17% draws support from open-weight Llama models and broad developer adoption. OpenAI’s lower 9.3% positioning suggests consensus that it remains the frontrunner, leaving the second tier contested among labs racing on benchmarks, agent capabilities, and talent acquisition. The near-even spread across multiple names highlights how quickly new model drops, partnerships, or regulatory moves could alter the ordering before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 44%
Anthropic 23%
Meta 16%
OpenAI 9.4%
$18,722 Vol.
$18,722 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
44%
Anthropic
23%
Meta
16%
OpenAI
9%
Alibaba
3%
Z.ai
2%
Thinky
2%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
Microsoft
1%
MiniMax
<1%
Google 44%
Anthropic 23%
Meta 16%
OpenAI 9.4%
$18,722 Vol.
$18,722 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
$8,118 Vol.
44%
Anthropic
$1,837 Vol.
23%
Meta
$970 Vol.
16%
OpenAI
$526 Vol.
9%
Alibaba
$772 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$478 Vol.
2%
Thinky
$705 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$382 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$551 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$463 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$311 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$304 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$345 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$304 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$380 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$333 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$295 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$341 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$372 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$466 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$472 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view Google as the leading contender for second-best AI lab by end of October, with 43.5% market-implied odds reflecting its DeepMind research depth, Gemini model iterations, and tight integration across search, Android, and cloud platforms. Anthropic sits at 24% on the strength of its safety-focused Claude releases and enterprise traction, while Meta at 17% draws support from open-weight Llama models and broad developer adoption. OpenAI’s lower 9.3% positioning suggests consensus that it remains the frontrunner, leaving the second tier contested among labs racing on benchmarks, agent capabilities, and talent acquisition. The near-even spread across multiple names highlights how quickly new model drops, partnerships, or regulatory moves could alter the ordering before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volume
$18,722End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view Google as the leading contender for second-best AI lab by end of October, with 43.5% market-implied odds reflecting its DeepMind research depth, Gemini model iterations, and tight integration across search, Android, and cloud platforms. Anthropic sits at 24% on the strength of its safety-focused Claude releases and enterprise traction, while Meta at 17% draws support from open-weight Llama models and broad developer adoption. OpenAI’s lower 9.3% positioning suggests consensus that it remains the frontrunner, leaving the second tier contested among labs racing on benchmarks, agent capabilities, and talent acquisition. The near-even spread across multiple names highlights how quickly new model drops, partnerships, or regulatory moves could alter the ordering before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$18,722End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view Google as the leading contender for second-best AI lab by end of October, with 43.5% market-implied odds reflecting its DeepMind research depth, Gemini model iterations, and tight integration across search, Android, and cloud platforms. Anthropic sits at 24% on the strength of its safety-focused Claude releases and enterprise traction, while Meta at 17% draws support from open-weight Llama models and broad developer adoption. OpenAI’s lower 9.3% positioning suggests consensus that it remains the frontrunner, leaving the second tier contested among labs racing on benchmarks, agent capabilities, and talent acquisition. The near-even spread across multiple names highlights how quickly new model drops, partnerships, or regulatory moves could alter the ordering before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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