OpenAI holds overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August due to its recent advancements in agentic large language models, including improved reasoning chains and tool-use benchmarks that have outpaced most competitors in demonstrated capabilities. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI's established developer ecosystem, frequent model iterations, and real-world deployments more heavily than rivals amid a fast-moving competitive landscape. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a last-minute breakthrough release or benchmark lead from a lab like Anthropic or a new entrant, though the proximity to resolution leaves limited room for such reversals to register before the market closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
Z.ai <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$24,649 Vol.
$24,649 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
No
OpenAI
Yes
Z.ai
No
SpaceXAI
No
Meta
No
Alibaba
No
No
Moonshot
No
DeepSeek
No
Xiaomi
No
MiniMax
No
Nvidia
No
ByteDance
No
Baidu
No
Amazon
No
Mistral
No
Meituan
No
Microsoft
No
OpenAI 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
Z.ai <1%
SpaceXAI <1%
$24,649 Vol.
$24,649 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$1,618 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$6,994 Vol.
Yes
Z.ai
$1,752 Vol.
No
SpaceXAI
$443 Vol.
No
Meta
$378 Vol.
No
Alibaba
$715 Vol.
No
$363 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$6,019 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$707 Vol.
No
Xiaomi
$1,163 Vol.
No
MiniMax
$489 Vol.
No
Nvidia
$622 Vol.
No
ByteDance
$954 Vol.
No
Baidu
$592 Vol.
No
Amazon
$323 Vol.
No
Mistral
$450 Vol.
No
Meituan
$336 Vol.
No
Microsoft
$733 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August due to its recent advancements in agentic large language models, including improved reasoning chains and tool-use benchmarks that have outpaced most competitors in demonstrated capabilities. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI's established developer ecosystem, frequent model iterations, and real-world deployments more heavily than rivals amid a fast-moving competitive landscape. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a last-minute breakthrough release or benchmark lead from a lab like Anthropic or a new entrant, though the proximity to resolution leaves limited room for such reversals to register before the market closes.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$24,649End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August due to its recent advancements in agentic large language models, including improved reasoning chains and tool-use benchmarks that have outpaced most competitors in demonstrated capabilities. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI's established developer ecosystem, frequent model iterations, and real-world deployments more heavily than rivals amid a fast-moving competitive landscape. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a last-minute breakthrough release or benchmark lead from a lab like Anthropic or a new entrant, though the proximity to resolution leaves limited room for such reversals to register before the market closes.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$24,649End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
OpenAI holds overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August due to its recent advancements in agentic large language models, including improved reasoning chains and tool-use benchmarks that have outpaced most competitors in demonstrated capabilities. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI's established developer ecosystem, frequent model iterations, and real-world deployments more heavily than rivals amid a fast-moving competitive landscape. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a last-minute breakthrough release or benchmark lead from a lab like Anthropic or a new entrant, though the proximity to resolution leaves limited room for such reversals to register before the market closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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