The high "No" probability on H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) reflects its repeated House passage—including versions in April 2025 and February 2026—followed by consistent Senate inaction. The bill requires documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, but Senate rules demand 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. With Republicans holding 53 seats, efforts to secure Democratic support have fallen short, and attempts to attach provisions to must-pass measures like the NDAA or advance them through budget reconciliation have not succeeded. As of August 2026, no procedural changes or vote thresholds have materialized to clear the chamber before year-end, sustaining trader expectations that the legislation will remain unsigned.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$190,044 Vol.
$190,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$190,044 Vol.
$190,044 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high "No" probability on H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) reflects its repeated House passage—including versions in April 2025 and February 2026—followed by consistent Senate inaction. The bill requires documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, but Senate rules demand 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. With Republicans holding 53 seats, efforts to secure Democratic support have fallen short, and attempts to attach provisions to must-pass measures like the NDAA or advance them through budget reconciliation have not succeeded. As of August 2026, no procedural changes or vote thresholds have materialized to clear the chamber before year-end, sustaining trader expectations that the legislation will remain unsigned.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Volume
$190,044End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high "No" probability on H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) reflects its repeated House passage—including versions in April 2025 and February 2026—followed by consistent Senate inaction. The bill requires documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, but Senate rules demand 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. With Republicans holding 53 seats, efforts to secure Democratic support have fallen short, and attempts to attach provisions to must-pass measures like the NDAA or advance them through budget reconciliation have not succeeded. As of August 2026, no procedural changes or vote thresholds have materialized to clear the chamber before year-end, sustaining trader expectations that the legislation will remain unsigned.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Save Act (H.R.22) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$190,044End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 3, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high "No" probability on H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) reflects its repeated House passage—including versions in April 2025 and February 2026—followed by consistent Senate inaction. The bill requires documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration, but Senate rules demand 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. With Republicans holding 53 seats, efforts to secure Democratic support have fallen short, and attempts to attach provisions to must-pass measures like the NDAA or advance them through budget reconciliation have not succeeded. As of August 2026, no procedural changes or vote thresholds have materialized to clear the chamber before year-end, sustaining trader expectations that the legislation will remain unsigned.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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