Trader consensus reflects a 70.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2026, anchored by the collapse of the April 11-12 Orthodox Easter truce amid mutual accusations of violations and Russia's refusal to extend without Kyiv's concessions on territorial demands. President Zelenskyy signaled openness to halting attacks if Moscow ceased energy infrastructure strikes, yet the Kremlin emphasized a full peace deal over temporary halts, with prior Istanbul negotiations paused due to U.S. focus on Iran tensions. Persistent military actions—including Russian drone force expansions to 101,000 personnel and slowed advances per recent assessments—underscore frontline stalemate and de-escalation barriers, leaving traders wary of diplomatic breakthroughs before year-end despite occasional POW exchanges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,068,338 Vol.
$14,068,338 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 4%
$14,068,338 Vol.
$14,068,338 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects a 70.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2026, anchored by the collapse of the April 11-12 Orthodox Easter truce amid mutual accusations of violations and Russia's refusal to extend without Kyiv's concessions on territorial demands. President Zelenskyy signaled openness to halting attacks if Moscow ceased energy infrastructure strikes, yet the Kremlin emphasized a full peace deal over temporary halts, with prior Istanbul negotiations paused due to U.S. focus on Iran tensions. Persistent military actions—including Russian drone force expansions to 101,000 personnel and slowed advances per recent assessments—underscore frontline stalemate and de-escalation barriers, leaving traders wary of diplomatic breakthroughs before year-end despite occasional POW exchanges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$14,068,338End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects a 70.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2026, anchored by the collapse of the April 11-12 Orthodox Easter truce amid mutual accusations of violations and Russia's refusal to extend without Kyiv's concessions on territorial demands. President Zelenskyy signaled openness to halting attacks if Moscow ceased energy infrastructure strikes, yet the Kremlin emphasized a full peace deal over temporary halts, with prior Istanbul negotiations paused due to U.S. focus on Iran tensions. Persistent military actions—including Russian drone force expansions to 101,000 personnel and slowed advances per recent assessments—underscore frontline stalemate and de-escalation barriers, leaving traders wary of diplomatic breakthroughs before year-end despite occasional POW exchanges.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$14,068,338End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus reflects a 70.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end-2026, anchored by the collapse of the April 11-12 Orthodox Easter truce amid mutual accusations of violations and Russia's refusal to extend without Kyiv's concessions on territorial demands. President Zelenskyy signaled openness to halting attacks if Moscow ceased energy infrastructure strikes, yet the Kremlin emphasized a full peace deal over temporary halts, with prior Istanbul negotiations paused due to U.S. focus on Iran tensions. Persistent military actions—including Russian drone force expansions to 101,000 personnel and slowed advances per recent assessments—underscore frontline stalemate and de-escalation barriers, leaving traders wary of diplomatic breakthroughs before year-end despite occasional POW exchanges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions