Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts and persistent battlefield friction. The recent 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11 faltered amid mutual accusations of thousands of violations, including drone strikes and assaults, highlighting profound distrust between Moscow and Kyiv. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on April 6 that peace talks remain paused as U.S. focus shifts following its Iran ceasefire. Negotiations, mediated earlier in Geneva, founder on Russia's demands for full Donetsk Oblast cession—unmet on the ground where advances slowed to just 0.1% of Ukraine in Q1 2026—while Ukrainian counterstrikes maintain a costly stalemate, reducing near-term de-escalation odds despite exhaustion signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,068,338 Vol.
$14,068,338 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 4%
$14,068,338 Vol.
$14,068,338 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts and persistent battlefield friction. The recent 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11 faltered amid mutual accusations of thousands of violations, including drone strikes and assaults, highlighting profound distrust between Moscow and Kyiv. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on April 6 that peace talks remain paused as U.S. focus shifts following its Iran ceasefire. Negotiations, mediated earlier in Geneva, founder on Russia's demands for full Donetsk Oblast cession—unmet on the ground where advances slowed to just 0.1% of Ukraine in Q1 2026—while Ukrainian counterstrikes maintain a costly stalemate, reducing near-term de-escalation odds despite exhaustion signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$14,068,338End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts and persistent battlefield friction. The recent 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11 faltered amid mutual accusations of thousands of violations, including drone strikes and assaults, highlighting profound distrust between Moscow and Kyiv. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on April 6 that peace talks remain paused as U.S. focus shifts following its Iran ceasefire. Negotiations, mediated earlier in Geneva, founder on Russia's demands for full Donetsk Oblast cession—unmet on the ground where advances slowed to just 0.1% of Ukraine in Q1 2026—while Ukrainian counterstrikes maintain a costly stalemate, reducing near-term de-escalation odds despite exhaustion signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$14,068,338End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 70.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts and persistent battlefield friction. The recent 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce from April 11 faltered amid mutual accusations of thousands of violations, including drone strikes and assaults, highlighting profound distrust between Moscow and Kyiv. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on April 6 that peace talks remain paused as U.S. focus shifts following its Iran ceasefire. Negotiations, mediated earlier in Geneva, founder on Russia's demands for full Donetsk Oblast cession—unmet on the ground where advances slowed to just 0.1% of Ukraine in Q1 2026—while Ukrainian counterstrikes maintain a costly stalemate, reducing near-term de-escalation odds despite exhaustion signals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions