**Recent mutual accusations of breaching the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire on April 11-12 have reinforced trader skepticism toward a lasting halt in hostilities by year-end, with both Russia and Ukraine reporting thousands of violations and no extension agreed.** Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva produced no progress, as Moscow demands territorial concessions in Donbas and Crimea that Kyiv firmly rejects, while Zelenskyy conditions pauses on Russian cessation of energy infrastructure strikes. Russian forces maintain incremental advances amid high casualties, per Institute for the Study of War assessments, amid fading U.S. security guarantee prospects. This entrenched diplomatic impasse and persistent military escalation drive the 70.5% "No" consensus, reflecting the wisdom of crowds betting against de-escalation absent major concessions or external mediation breakthroughs before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,068,338 Vol.
$14,068,338 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 4%
$14,068,338 Vol.
$14,068,338 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Earn 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.**Recent mutual accusations of breaching the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire on April 11-12 have reinforced trader skepticism toward a lasting halt in hostilities by year-end, with both Russia and Ukraine reporting thousands of violations and no extension agreed.** Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva produced no progress, as Moscow demands territorial concessions in Donbas and Crimea that Kyiv firmly rejects, while Zelenskyy conditions pauses on Russian cessation of energy infrastructure strikes. Russian forces maintain incremental advances amid high casualties, per Institute for the Study of War assessments, amid fading U.S. security guarantee prospects. This entrenched diplomatic impasse and persistent military escalation drive the 70.5% "No" consensus, reflecting the wisdom of crowds betting against de-escalation absent major concessions or external mediation breakthroughs before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$14,068,338End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.**Recent mutual accusations of breaching the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire on April 11-12 have reinforced trader skepticism toward a lasting halt in hostilities by year-end, with both Russia and Ukraine reporting thousands of violations and no extension agreed.** Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva produced no progress, as Moscow demands territorial concessions in Donbas and Crimea that Kyiv firmly rejects, while Zelenskyy conditions pauses on Russian cessation of energy infrastructure strikes. Russian forces maintain incremental advances amid high casualties, per Institute for the Study of War assessments, amid fading U.S. security guarantee prospects. This entrenched diplomatic impasse and persistent military escalation drive the 70.5% "No" consensus, reflecting the wisdom of crowds betting against de-escalation absent major concessions or external mediation breakthroughs before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$14,068,338End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
**Recent mutual accusations of breaching the 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire on April 11-12 have reinforced trader skepticism toward a lasting halt in hostilities by year-end, with both Russia and Ukraine reporting thousands of violations and no extension agreed.** Trilateral U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva produced no progress, as Moscow demands territorial concessions in Donbas and Crimea that Kyiv firmly rejects, while Zelenskyy conditions pauses on Russian cessation of energy infrastructure strikes. Russian forces maintain incremental advances amid high casualties, per Institute for the Study of War assessments, amid fading U.S. security guarantee prospects. This entrenched diplomatic impasse and persistent military escalation drive the 70.5% "No" consensus, reflecting the wisdom of crowds betting against de-escalation absent major concessions or external mediation breakthroughs before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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