Russia's nuclear posture has drawn renewed attention amid the expiration of New START in February 2026 and U.S. signals under the Trump administration about resuming explosive nuclear testing. In November 2025, President Putin directed defense officials to prepare proposals for possible tests at Novaya Zemlya, though no such explosive test has occurred. Moscow has instead conducted multiple missile and delivery-system trials—including Burevestnik cruise missile, Poseidon torpedo, Sarmat ICBM, and Bulava launches from submarines—while staging large-scale strategic exercises that simulate nuclear authorization and escalation. Russian officials have stated they would respond in kind if the United States conducts a test first. These developments, combined with ongoing drills and the absence of arms-control verification mechanisms, shape trader assessments of the likelihood and timing of any Russian nuclear explosive test.