Russia has not conducted an explosive nuclear weapons test since 1990 and continues to adhere to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty moratorium absent reciprocal action by others. In November 2025, following U.S. comments on resuming testing, President Putin directed ministries and the Security Council to prepare proposals for possible preparations at the Novaya Zemlya site, framing any move as a proportionate response while stressing no decision had been taken. Subsequent developments include successful tests of nuclear-capable delivery systems such as the Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon underwater drone in late 2025, a confirmed Sarmat ICBM flight in May 2026, and ongoing strategic force exercises and emergency drills through October 2026. Trader consensus on near-term explosive testing reflects these signaling dynamics, modernization timelines, and the absence of confirmed U.S. explosive tests that would trigger Russian action.