United Russia maintains a commanding position ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma and concurrent regional legislative elections across 39 subjects, supported by its constitutional supermajority in the outgoing parliament, extensive administrative resources, and top ballot placement in over half of contested regions. Kremlin preparations, including the June party congress addressed by President Putin and the nomination of high-profile figures, underscore efforts to secure strong party-list results in every federal subject. Opposition parties face narrowed fields following disqualifications and registration barriers, while historical patterns show United Russia consistently leading vote shares in regions with strong institutional control. Traders assign the 71.5% implied probability to these structural advantages and the low likelihood of any region producing a different party-list plurality under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated72% chance
$364,397 Vol.
$364,397 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
72% chance
$364,397 Vol.
$364,397 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Russia party list receives the greatest number of valid votes of any party list in each individual region in the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a region means any federal subject of the Russian Federation for which results of the federal party-list vote are separately reported by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve solely according to the valid votes received by each party list in each region. The number of seats won by any party, including any seats won in single-member constituencies, will have no bearing on resolution.
If the United Russia party list is tied with multiple party lists for the greatest number of valid votes in a region, United Russia will be considered to have received the greatest number of valid votes in that region for the purposes of this market.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia maintains a commanding position ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma and concurrent regional legislative elections across 39 subjects, supported by its constitutional supermajority in the outgoing parliament, extensive administrative resources, and top ballot placement in over half of contested regions. Kremlin preparations, including the June party congress addressed by President Putin and the nomination of high-profile figures, underscore efforts to secure strong party-list results in every federal subject. Opposition parties face narrowed fields following disqualifications and registration barriers, while historical patterns show United Russia consistently leading vote shares in regions with strong institutional control. Traders assign the 71.5% implied probability to these structural advantages and the low likelihood of any region producing a different party-list plurality under current conditions.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Russia party list receives the greatest number of valid votes of any party list in each individual region in the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a region means any federal subject of the Russian Federation for which results of the federal party-list vote are separately reported by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve solely according to the valid votes received by each party list in each region. The number of seats won by any party, including any seats won in single-member constituencies, will have no bearing on resolution.
If the United Russia party list is tied with multiple party lists for the greatest number of valid votes in a region, United Russia will be considered to have received the greatest number of valid votes in that region for the purposes of this market.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Russia party list receives the greatest number of valid votes of any party list in each individual region in the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a region means any federal subject of the Russian Federation for which results of the federal party-list vote are separately reported by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve solely according to the valid votes received by each party list in each region. The number of seats won by any party, including any seats won in single-member constituencies, will have no bearing on resolution.
If the United Russia party list is tied with multiple party lists for the greatest number of valid votes in a region, United Russia will be considered to have received the greatest number of valid votes in that region for the purposes of this market.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 9:54 AM ET
Volume
$364,397End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Russia party list receives the greatest number of valid votes of any party list in each individual region in the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a region means any federal subject of the Russian Federation for which results of the federal party-list vote are separately reported by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve solely according to the valid votes received by each party list in each region. The number of seats won by any party, including any seats won in single-member constituencies, will have no bearing on resolution.
If the United Russia party list is tied with multiple party lists for the greatest number of valid votes in a region, United Russia will be considered to have received the greatest number of valid votes in that region for the purposes of this market.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia maintains a commanding position ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma and concurrent regional legislative elections across 39 subjects, supported by its constitutional supermajority in the outgoing parliament, extensive administrative resources, and top ballot placement in over half of contested regions. Kremlin preparations, including the June party congress addressed by President Putin and the nomination of high-profile figures, underscore efforts to secure strong party-list results in every federal subject. Opposition parties face narrowed fields following disqualifications and registration barriers, while historical patterns show United Russia consistently leading vote shares in regions with strong institutional control. Traders assign the 71.5% implied probability to these structural advantages and the low likelihood of any region producing a different party-list plurality under current conditions.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Russia party list receives the greatest number of valid votes of any party list in each individual region in the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a region means any federal subject of the Russian Federation for which results of the federal party-list vote are separately reported by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve solely according to the valid votes received by each party list in each region. The number of seats won by any party, including any seats won in single-member constituencies, will have no bearing on resolution.
If the United Russia party list is tied with multiple party lists for the greatest number of valid votes in a region, United Russia will be considered to have received the greatest number of valid votes in that region for the purposes of this market.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Russia party list receives the greatest number of valid votes of any party list in each individual region in the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a region means any federal subject of the Russian Federation for which results of the federal party-list vote are separately reported by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve solely according to the valid votes received by each party list in each region. The number of seats won by any party, including any seats won in single-member constituencies, will have no bearing on resolution.
If the United Russia party list is tied with multiple party lists for the greatest number of valid votes in a region, United Russia will be considered to have received the greatest number of valid votes in that region for the purposes of this market.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$364,397End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 9:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...United Russia maintains a commanding position ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma and concurrent regional legislative elections across 39 subjects, supported by its constitutional supermajority in the outgoing parliament, extensive administrative resources, and top ballot placement in over half of contested regions. Kremlin preparations, including the June party congress addressed by President Putin and the nomination of high-profile figures, underscore efforts to secure strong party-list results in every federal subject. Opposition parties face narrowed fields following disqualifications and registration barriers, while historical patterns show United Russia consistently leading vote shares in regions with strong institutional control. Traders assign the 71.5% implied probability to these structural advantages and the low likelihood of any region producing a different party-list plurality under current conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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