Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% "No" implied probability for Robinhood launching a prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31, 2026, as the deadline passed yesterday without any operational rollout or announcement. Despite Robinhood and Susquehanna completing their 90% acquisition of the CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange in January—positioning it for futures, swaps, and event contracts—no live trading platform emerged amid ongoing rebranding to "Rothera" and plans for a Q2 debut. Robinhood already routes massive prediction market volume (over 12 billion contracts) via Kalshi, reducing urgency for MIAXdx integration. With no post-deadline evidence, resolution to "No" appears inevitable, though a surprise retroactive clarification on "launch" criteria could theoretically prompt review.